iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Typhoon #Koguma is accelerating northeastward & moving into an area of increasing shear so will rapidly weaken east of #Japan over the next couple of days.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

In addition to potential tropical development in the West #Pacific this week, there is chance for another tropical cyclone to form near the #Marshall Islands or the Federated States of #Micronesia the week of 19 October.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

A western disturbance will continue to produce rounds of rain & high elevation snow from northern #Pakistan, #JammuKashmir to #Uttarkhand & #Nepal over the next few days. SW monsoon withdrawal from much of the rest of #India & start of the NE monsoon is possible later this week.

030

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

A slow-moving upper low will bring rain & mountain snow to central #Chile Sunday night into Wednesday. Rainfall around #Santiago can total 10-25 mm. A wet week is expected across southeast #Brazil with rounds of rain, some heavy, and thunderstorms.

021

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

A low pressure east of the Northern #Mariana Islands & another north of #Micronesia can strengthen over the next few days. The system near the Mariana Islands should be weak & short-lived. The low near Micronesia can become a typhoon later this week.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

A ridge building over the Iberian Peninsula will produce dry & mild weather across southern #France, #Spain & #Portugal into southern #Germany over the next few days. Fronts will bring a few chances of rain to #Ireland & the #UK.

130

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Powerful Typhoon #Koguma is passing east of the Iwo Islands with the remnants of #Nolo to the north. Koguma will absorb former Nolo in the next 12 hours or so with Koguma passing east of #Japan Tuesday & Wednesday.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Powerful Typhoon #Koguma is passing northeast of the Northern Mariana Islands & will pass east of #Japan's Iwo Jima Sunday & Monday. The storm will pass east of Japan around midweek.

011

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Strong winds and rough seas continue in the western #Mediterranean. Winds will ease Friday night into Saturday. A ridge will build over western #Europe early next week with a spell of dry and mild weather.

040

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

#Koguma is now a typhoon. High pressure to the east of #Japan's Iwo Islands and trough digging into northeast #China should keep both #Nolo and Koguma east of Japan.

021

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Heavy rain & strong thunderstorms will continue in eastern #Paraguay, northeast #Argentina & southeast #Brazil into Saturday. Additional rain & mountain snow in central #Chile tonight, then again early next week.

011

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The monsoon has further withdrawn from the rest of #Maharashtra, parts of #Goa, #Karnataka, #Jharkhand, #Chhattisgarh & #Odisha. The withdrawal can gradually advance over the next several days.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The monsoon has further withdrawn from the rest of #Maharashtra, parts of #Goa, #Karnataka, #Jharkhand, #Chhattisgarh & #Odisha. The withdrawal can gradually advance over the next several days.

021

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Remaining windy in the northwest #Mediterranean, southern coast of #France & the #Ebro Valley of #Spain into Friday. Rough surf around the #Balearics & the west coasts of #Corsica & #Sardinia.

031

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

A look at Tropical Storms #Nolo & #Koguma. Both are expected to remain east of #Japan, but Koguma may track far enough west to brush the Iwo Islands with some rain & wind early next week.

021

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Easterly wind anomalies in the central & eastern equatorial Indian Ocean should favor more cooling of SSTs off #Indonesia which should lead to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) being declared in the next week or two.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

A moisture laden northeast flow will produce rounds of heavy rain & areas of flooding in southern #Hainan Island & central #Vietnam through Thursday, local time. The risk of heavy rain & flooding will lift to northern Vietnam for Friday into Sunday, local time.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Rain, some heavy, & storms will continue in S #France & portions of #Switzerland & #Italy into Thursday. Strong winds and rough seas likely in the northwest #Mediterranean Thursday into Friday. Rough surf along the coasts of the #Balearics & west coasts of #Corsica & #Sardinia.

030

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Shear is displacing convection northeast of Choi-wan's center as it passes east of the #Kuril Islands. Choi-wan will enter the Bering Sea on Thursday.

020

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A look at sea-level anomalies from Mar to Sep. It shows the formation of the internal oceanic Kelvin wave with #ElNino forming & eastward progression. The Kelvin wave reached #SouthAmerica during late summer & is now spreading poleward. Hence the rising sea-levels off NW #Mexico.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The latest #ElNino forecasts from the NMME and ECMWF remain impressive. The ECMWF continues to show a relatively weak and short-lived positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

120

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A western disturbance will lead to scattered rains from #JammuKashmir to #UttarPradesh & E #MadhyaPradesh to #Odisha, #WestBengal, NE #India, #Nepal & #Bangladeh into Saturday. Low pressure may develop in the Bay of Bengal early next week, then may impact E India later next week.

021

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A storm will continue to bring some rain, thunder & mountain snow to central #Chile into Thursday. This system will spread areas of heavy rain & strong thunderstorms from northern #Argentina & #Uruguay to #Paraguay & southeast #Brazil Wednesday into Saturday.

021

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A trough will spread rain, some heavy, & thunderstorms eastward across #Europe later Tuesday through Thursday. Strong winds & rough seas are likely in the northwest #Mediterranean Sea Thursday into Friday.

030

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Typhoon Choi-wan is passing east of #Japan, Tropical Storm #Koguma remains near the #Marshall Islands & Typhoon #Nolo out by #Midway. None are a threat to land over the next several days.

041

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

A nice graphic I found that helps explain the mechanism behind the #ElNino phenomenon. If you are interested in the physics of El Nino, here a paper from Physics World. physicsworld.com/a/the-physic...

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The latest weekly IOD Index remained above the +IOD threshold of +0.4°C for the 4th consecutive week. If the index remains above +0.4°C, a +IOD will be declared in the next week or two.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

All #India cumulative rainfall departure for the 2026 southwest monsoon season (1 June-30 Sept) finished at -12.6%. This is the greatest monsoon rainfall deficit since the 2015 season.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

A slow-moving western disturbance will lead to scattered rains from #UttarPradesh & eastern #MadhyaPradesh to #Odisha, #WestBengal, northeast #India & #Bangladeh into Saturday. Low pressure may develop in the Bay of Bengal next week.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

An upper low passing S of Archipiélago Juan Fernández will bring rain & mountain snow to central #Chile Monday night into Thursday. This system will bring areas of heavy rain & strong thunderstorms to N #Argentina, #Uruguay, #Paraguay & SE #Brazil late Wednesday into Saturday.

011

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

A strong trough will bring areas of heavy rain & flooding to southern #France late Tuesday & Wednesday, then parts of #Italy, #Croatia & western #Slovinia Wednesday night & Thursday. Strong winds & rough seas likely in the northwest #Mediterranean Thursday.

020

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

#Nolo is now a typhoon in the West Pacific. Tropical Storm #Koguma is near the Marshall Islands & Super Typhoon Choi-wan is passing east of #Japan's Iwo Islands, then will pass east of Japan later Tuesday into Wednesday, local time.

021

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Choi-wan is now a super typhoon and will pass east of #Japan's Iwo Islands then pass east of Japan Tuesday, local time.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Powerful Typhoon Choi-wan will pass east of #Japan Tuesday. A new depression has formed near the Marshall Islands & will track northwest. Hurricane #Nolo will cross the Dateline into the West Pacific in the next 12-24 hours.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

On Saturday, #Tokyo, #Japan had its first dry day since 27 Aug, ending its record consecutive rain streak of 37 days. This is the longest rainy stretch since records began in 1886. The previous record was 33 days, set in 2019.

041

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

After being stalled for over a week, the southwest monsoon has finally withdrawn for all of western & much of central #India as of Saturday. The withdrawal of the monsoon should push through of #Maharashtra, #Chhattishgarh & parts of #Telangana over the next 2-3 days.

011

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Choi-wan is now a typhoon near the Northern Mariana Islands & will become a strong typhoon by the time it passes east of the Iwo Islands Monday. Choi-wan will pass east of mainland #Japan Tuesday into Wednesday.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A tropical low near #Kwajalein, #Marshall Islands will gradually strengthen to a depression then tropical storm Sunday or early next week. The storm will track northwest & #Japan should monitor for possible impacts later the week of 12 October.

020

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Rain & mountain snow showers in central #Chile today with another chance for rain in the area early next week. Additional rain, some heavy, & strong thunderstorms are likely in northern #Argentina, #Paraguay & southeast #Brazil this weekend into early next week.

011

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Tropical Storm #Nolo, east of #Hawaii, will likely strengthen to a hurricane before crossing the #Dateline into the West Pacific Sunday or Monday. The storm could track as far west as 150° East later next week but should be minimal threat to land.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Strengthening Choi-wan remains near the Northern #Mariana Islands & will become a strong typhoon by the time it passes just east of #Japan's Iwo Islands early next week. Choi-wan is expected to pass east of mainland Japan around midweek.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Rain, some heavy, will continue in #Victoria, southern #NewSouthWales & #ACT through Saturday, local time. Additional rain is expected in southeast #Australia late next week or next weekend.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It is Domestic Violence Awareness Month.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Strong internal Kelvin waves generated by the strong #ElNino have raised sea-level anomalies over 35cm (~1') off #SouthAmerica. The Kelvin wave is reaching poleward with anomalies <10cm around Baja California. Height anomalies will continue to increase along the California coast.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Further withdrawal of #India's southwest monsoon from more parts #Gujarat & #Rajasthan, portions of #MadhyaPradesh, #UttarPradesh, #Uttarkhand, #JammuKashmir & #HimachalPradesh is expected over the next day or two.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#Surigae is racing northeastward away from #Japan & will be absorbed into the cold front near the #Kuril Islands Thursday night or Friday, local time.

010

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Tropical Storm Choi-wan has formed near the Northern Mariana Islands & will continue to bring areas of heavy rain & gusty winds to the archipelago into the weekend. Choi-wan will likely become a typhoon in the next day or so. The storm should pass east of #Japan later next week.

020

Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The JMA has declared a tropical depression to the east of #Saipan in the Northern #Mariana Islands & will quickly become TS Choi-wan. Areas of heavy rain & gusty winds are likely in the archipelago Wed night into Sat, local time. The storm can pass east of #Japan next week.

010