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An upper low passing S of Archipiélago Juan Fernández will bring rain & mountain snow to central #Chile Monday night into Thursday. This system will bring areas of heavy rain & strong thunderstorms to N #Argentina, #Uruguay, #Paraguay & SE #Brazil late Wednesday into Saturday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 2h

A strong trough will bring areas of heavy rain & flooding to southern #France late Tuesday & Wednesday, then parts of #Italy, #Croatia & western #Slovinia Wednesday night & Thursday. Strong winds & rough seas likely in the northwest #Mediterranean Thursday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 4h

#Nolo is now a typhoon in the West Pacific. Tropical Storm #Koguma is near the Marshall Islands & Super Typhoon Choi-wan is passing east of #Japan's Iwo Islands, then will pass east of Japan later Tuesday into Wednesday, local time.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 15h

Choi-wan is now a super typhoon and will pass east of #Japan's Iwo Islands then pass east of Japan Tuesday, local time.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 22h

Powerful Typhoon Choi-wan will pass east of #Japan Tuesday. A new depression has formed near the Marshall Islands & will track northwest. Hurricane #Nolo will cross the Dateline into the West Pacific in the next 12-24 hours.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

On Saturday, #Tokyo, #Japan had its first dry day since 27 Aug, ending its record consecutive rain streak of 37 days. This is the longest rainy stretch since records began in 1886. The previous record was 33 days, set in 2019.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

After being stalled for over a week, the southwest monsoon has finally withdrawn for all of western & much of central #India as of Saturday. The withdrawal of the monsoon should push through of #Maharashtra, #Chhattishgarh & parts of #Telangana over the next 2-3 days.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Choi-wan is now a typhoon near the Northern Mariana Islands & will become a strong typhoon by the time it passes east of the Iwo Islands Monday. Choi-wan will pass east of mainland #Japan Tuesday into Wednesday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A tropical low near #Kwajalein, #Marshall Islands will gradually strengthen to a depression then tropical storm Sunday or early next week. The storm will track northwest & #Japan should monitor for possible impacts later the week of 12 October.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Rain & mountain snow showers in central #Chile today with another chance for rain in the area early next week. Additional rain, some heavy, & strong thunderstorms are likely in northern #Argentina, #Paraguay & southeast #Brazil this weekend into early next week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Tropical Storm #Nolo, east of #Hawaii, will likely strengthen to a hurricane before crossing the #Dateline into the West Pacific Sunday or Monday. The storm could track as far west as 150° East later next week but should be minimal threat to land.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Strengthening Choi-wan remains near the Northern #Mariana Islands & will become a strong typhoon by the time it passes just east of #Japan's Iwo Islands early next week. Choi-wan is expected to pass east of mainland Japan around midweek.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Rain, some heavy, will continue in #Victoria, southern #NewSouthWales & #ACT through Saturday, local time. Additional rain is expected in southeast #Australia late next week or next weekend.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It is Domestic Violence Awareness Month.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Strong internal Kelvin waves generated by the strong #ElNino have raised sea-level anomalies over 35cm (~1') off #SouthAmerica. The Kelvin wave is reaching poleward with anomalies <10cm around Baja California. Height anomalies will continue to increase along the California coast.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Further withdrawal of #India's southwest monsoon from more parts #Gujarat & #Rajasthan, portions of #MadhyaPradesh, #UttarPradesh, #Uttarkhand, #JammuKashmir & #HimachalPradesh is expected over the next day or two.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#Surigae is racing northeastward away from #Japan & will be absorbed into the cold front near the #Kuril Islands Thursday night or Friday, local time.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Tropical Storm Choi-wan has formed near the Northern Mariana Islands & will continue to bring areas of heavy rain & gusty winds to the archipelago into the weekend. Choi-wan will likely become a typhoon in the next day or so. The storm should pass east of #Japan later next week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The JMA has declared a tropical depression to the east of #Saipan in the Northern #Mariana Islands & will quickly become TS Choi-wan. Areas of heavy rain & gusty winds are likely in the archipelago Wed night into Sat, local time. The storm can pass east of #Japan next week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A strong trough will bring areas of heavy rain & strong thunderstorms to the provinces of #NorthernCape, eastern #WesternCape, #EasternCape & western #FreeState later Friday into early Sunday. Risk for areas of flash flooding, hail & damaging wind gusts.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A cold front will bring strong thunderstorms and flooding rainfall to the provinces of #Occitanie, Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes and western Provence-Alpes-Cote d' Azur in southern #France Wednesday into Thursday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#Surigae continues to weaken as it nears #Japan's Izu archipelago south of #Honshu. The storm will track northeast and become absorbed into an extra-tropical storm near the Kuril Islands later Thursday or Friday, local time.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The tropics will remain active in the West #Pacific through at least mid-October with the chance for tropical development in the vicinity of the #Mariana Islands late next week or next weekend.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

A weakening depression will continue to bring pockets of heavy rain to #Myanmar, southeast #Bangladesh & parts of NE #India into Thursday, local time. The India monsoon withdrawal will resume later this week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

A rapidly strengthen storm passing west of #Ireland will bring strong wind gusts to Ireland & parts of #Scotland into early Wednesday. Rough surf is likely along the coasts of Ireland & the western #UK.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

A strengthening tropical low east of the Northern Mariana Islands will likely become TS Choi-wan over the next couple of days. The storm may eventually pass east of #Japan later next week, but may track far enough west to brush eastern #Honshu with some rain & wind.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#Surigae has weakened to a severe tropical storm south of #Japan. The storm will continue to track east-northeast, passing south of Japan, over the next couple of days. Surigae will be absorbed into an extra-tropical storm near the Kamchatka Peninsula Friday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The weekly IOD index remained above the +IOD threshold of +0.4°C for the third consecutive week. Based on forecast zonal wind anomalies across the tropical Indian Ocean there is a good chance a +IOD is declared underway in early October.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

A trough near Archipiélago Juan Fernández will bring light rain & mountain snow to C & S #Chile through Monday night. Another round of heavy rain & severe thunderstorms are likely in N #Argentina, #Paraguay, #Uruguay & SE #Brazil through Tuesday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

A strengthening tropical low east on the Northern Mariana Islands will likely become TS Choi-wan over the next few days. A trough may steer the storm east of #Japan early next week, but impacts on Japan can not be ruled out.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The depression over the northern #AndamanSea will lift northward into #Myanmar with heavy rain Monday night & Tuesday. The monsoon is expected to resume its withdrawal from more parts of #India later this week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Strong Typhoon #Surigae is moving eastward away from #Japan's Ryukyu Islands and will pass south of mainland Japan over the next few days.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

#Surigae is now a very strong typhoon and has turned eastward away from Japan's Ryukyu Islands. The storm will likely pass south of mainland #Japan over the next few days.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

A deepening storm passing west of #Ireland will bring damaging wind gusts & locally heavy rain to Ireland, portions of the #UK & perhaps northwest #France later Tuesday into Wednesday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

A day late, but Happy National Daughters Day to our two amazing daughters.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Tropical Storm #Surigae has started its turn toward the northeast & should pass just east of #Japan's Ryukyu Islands over the next few days. However, some rain & wind is possible across the archipelago. Surigae will pass south of mainland Japan later this week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

New tropical development is likely in the West Pacific, in the vicinity of the #Mariana Islands, next week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Strengthening easterly anomalies across the tropical Indian Ocean in early October should favor additional cooling of sea-surface temperatures off #Indonesia. Still appears a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole will be declared in October.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

A trough will bring some rain to southern & central #Chile Sunday into Monday. This system will bring another round of heavy rain & severe storms in N #Argentina, #Paraguay, #Uruguay & the #Brazilian states of Rio Grande do Sul & #SantaCatarina later Monday into Wednesday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

A rapidly deepening storm in the North Atlantic can bring damaging wind gusts and areas of heavy rain to #Ireland, parts of the #UK and northwest #France Tuesday into Wednesday. Rough seas likely off western Ireland, the Irish Sea, northwest #Scotland & the Bay of Biscay.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Conditions will be favorable for a more progressive withdrawal of the monsoon from #India next week. The deep depression helped slow the withdrawal over the past few days.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The depression near #Chhattisgarh will weaken to a well-marked low as it tracks NNW Friday night into Saturday. The storm will still spread heavy rain & areas of flooding across Chhattisgarh & #MadhyaPradesh to #UttarPradesh, #Uttarakhand & #Nepal into Sunday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Tropical Storm #Surigae is well east of the #Batanes. A pair of troughs will steer the storm N this weekend, then NE early next week. The storm should pass just east of #Japan's Ryukyu Islands then is expected to pass south of Japan later next week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

A strong trough can bring light rain & mountain snow to C & N #Chile early next week. This trough will lead to another round of heavy rain & severe storms in N #Argentina, #Paraguay, #Uruguay & the #Brazilian states of Rio Grande do Sul & #SantaCatarina later Mon into Wed.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Conditions are expected to be conducive for new tropical development in the vicinity of the #Mariana Islands next week.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

A strong upper low offshore will spread areas of heavy rain & strong thunderstorms from southern #Namibia, #WesternCape & #NorthernCape to #EasternCape, #FreeState & western Kwazulu-Nata provinces in #SouthAfrica & #Lesotho Friday into Saturday.

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Jason Nicholls @jnmet.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Tropical Storm #Surigae is over the Philippine Sea. A pair of troughs should steer Surigae toward the N then NE this weekend & next week so rain & wind impacts may be limited to #Japan's #Ryukyu Islands & maybe the southern coast of Japan.

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