iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Headquarters @headquartersnews.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This reminded me that I... actually wrote these postcards, *thousands* of them, once upon a time! I do not believe postcard campaigns do very much. I believe there are ways to help campaigns win without the tedious and time-consuming activity of writing them. johnlray.github.io/posts/post_2...

112

Reposted by JLRay

Leaked audio of Ken Paxton revealing he wants to cut programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid: “Making some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending… Suck it up.”

56584375

JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 19h

Nope, I used the correct term! Consider a different personality, thanks

000

JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 22h

Watching Rubio and Vance trying to soft-launch their campaigns on the same day and proving they're both gunning to shed as much of the non-white vote from the GOP as possible - a comforting reminder that no, Trump is not seeking a third term, and also the GOP has an absolute dogshit bench behind him

1144

112

JR’s blog - Several null results from recent postcard experiments

How about RCTs with terrible looking error bars and markdown tables written by hand johnlray.github.io/posts/post_2...

johnlray.github.io

110

just got one of those postcards I know for a fact is from a campaign targeting "low propensity voters"

3130

"I figured I'd be able to manipulate the Weave because in some circles I'm known as a Grand Wizard"

0150

The writer is neither a "he" nor is she "technically correct"

0370

There are so many incredibly talented early-career journalists and political analysts who actually understand American politics. We do not need to keep doing this.

217117

what fucking buffoons we are for failing to offer a murderous rapist "no small indulgence of syntax" as he sends our children to the slaughter in a pointless war to abet his pedophile masters

225222

how are we still fucking doing this

3966988

Reposted by JLRay

Looking at Trump's numbers among voters without a college degree, if journalists wrote about actual people instead of fictional people, the only question would be "how did Republicans manage to alienate the working class so badly?" yougov.com/en-us/tracke... From +17 to -10 in 18 months!

0105

0105

Reposted by JLRay

The latest from YouGov: There are many ways to define a likely voter, but none of them are especially good for Republicans. Democrats should be feeling good right now. yougovamerica.substack.com/p/democrats-...

042

"my god. Jackson Lamb was a double-agent" "how did you find out" www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10...

040

by the linear projection this fool will be owing me millions by sundown

010

042

most compelling evidence I've seen yet that democrats have turned up the resistlib cringe energy to eleven this october. Dems to gain 200 seats calling it now

070

I'm such a special boy I wound up in *both* conditions of the A/B test 😍

2301

Just last night I was reading the Credit Mobilier Scandal article (look, what a man does on his own time is his own business) and I just... do not think this is how a human would write "1.2 billion." Just a weird, distracting bummer to run into

040

non-zero chance this line can get memed to the point where trump tries to eat a handful of road salt at a rally in lewiston

0141

Reposted by JLRay

Here in Texas, Republicans basically aren't even bothering with Spanish-language ads. This sends a negative competence signal to many Latino voters, who are generally English fluent but get the message that Republicans don't care about them. www.texastribune.org/2026/10/02/t...

34718

Reposted by JLRay

A Splintering MAGA Leans (Again) into its Bread and Butter: Attacking Women

The latest from YMRP: As MAGA splinters and spirals, expect it to turn to increasingly grotesque and shameful measures to cling to power. Here's how they are actively trying to weaponize the "Cornell 7" for political gain. ymrp.substack.com/p/a-splinter...

ymrp.substack.com

A fractured right-wing is rallying to protect the “Cornell 7”

033

The academic cited here is @aegutierrez.bsky.social . The must follow scholar for Latino politics in the US

140

A Splintering MAGA Leans (Again) into its Bread and Butter: Attacking Women

ymrp.substack.com

A fractured right-wing is rallying to protect the “Cornell 7”

033

34718

Really don't love this rapid-fire chain of thought of "hahah, Republicans have to spend an extra $100m in Texas now... oh, right, that's 0.01% of Elon Musk's current wealth"

0102

To be blunt, answering this question remains very much a work in progress. But if it can be answered satisfactorily and comprehensively, modern conservatism would die overnight.

140

Democrats, in turn, have only gradually figured out that you can take this on by calling out bullshit aggressively and with a positive alternate vision, that is both mean to the other side, and constructive on our own behalf. This type of messaging research is YMRP's bread and butter.

1261

The fact of the matter is that bad views are endemic across the electorate, not just young men, but Trump invested in tellingyoung men their bad views could form a coherent political ideology. This is most effective among the type of voter with the time to sit around and think about this all day.

1254

Trump Has A Clear Path to Winning Back Young Men He’s Lost – What Might Stop It?

...they had a deficit in messaging in this regard in the past. Ultimately: * !Sexism -> Much higher D support * Sexism + "here's how sexists should vote" messaging -> R support * Sexism + "Sexism is a stupid way to vote, these guys suck" -> Narrow D support! ymrp.substack.com/p/trump-has-...

ymrp.substack.com

YMRP message testing reveals reliable ways to counter misogynist political rhetoric

1253

Trump has a clear way to win back young men: make the race about sexism, homophobia, transphobia. that's the entire 2026 Republican ad strategy. Does it work? We actually ran some message tests on how Democrats can neutralize this approach - and they can! But... ymrp.substack.com/p/trump-has-...

2267

Is that young men who voted Trump but are now drifting away from him are those *lower* on the sexism scale than the remaining Trump loyalists -- but NO group of young men is at zero on this scale. That means... ymrp.substack.com/p/trump-has-...

1304

A crucial piece of that story is that young men who vote Republican on the basis of sexism *are also the ones who know Republicans are the party for sexist people.* What difference does that make? Well, to be blunt many young men are sexist *and* vote for Democrats. So what that means in practice...

1383

Among young men, sexism predicts support for Trump among young men. In 2024, Democrats *won economically precarious young men.* Trump won young men who held bad views about sex. In *particular,* Trump won those young men both sexist AND high-socioeconomic status. So... www.ymrp.org/polling

515742

Actually there's pretty good evidence in @ericmgarcia.bsky.social 's favor -- but I'd add that 2024 represented both Trump successfully activating bad views among young men, *and* Democrats failing to counter them/outweigh them even though there are apparent ways to do this. A short thread here:

1271