Reposted by Jim WilliamsonWill Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Seriously, if L'Affaire Natalie shows us anything at all, it's that Democrats should seize onto these seedy rumblings about Trump and talk about them in prime-time speeches. When you do, you give the press the excuse it needs to indulge in prying coverage it would otherwise avoid 7801107
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 24/08/2026I’m all for a big tent Democratic Party, but he needs to be kept outside the tent. 1150
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Let Iran Control the Strait of Hormuz www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/o...nytimes.comOpinion | Let Iran Control the Strait of HormuzPresident Trump needs to face reality on the Strait of Hormuz. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 24/08/2026It’s a small step to autonomous drones that can select among a large range of targets. Adding goal-driven behavior at a higher level of abstraction is coming soon. 000
Reposted by Jim WilliamsonNicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 24/08/2026The Iran war and now economic aggression against Canada gets more attention—not unreasonably—but the Trump regime’s murderous, illegal, Caribbean/Pacific boat bombings continue. Not terrorists, may not even be drug traffickers, and any ones are low level, so no real impact on the drug trade either. 5264112
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 24/08/2026This is a category error. Racism is not a scientific theory. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Is eugenics even a scientific discipline? Where is it taught? I’ve never heard of a department of eugenics in any university. Are you talking about animal husbandry? 010
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Shes a submissive and obviously gets off when he cusses her out. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 20/08/2026I will never understand the widespread opposition to data centers. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026On election night, as votes are being counted, they usually provide the most efficient way to figure who is going to win. 010
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 18/08/2026The holodeck was such a cheap contrivance. It made the show unwatchable for me. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 17/08/2026If Dems get control of both houses, they can do a lot to rein Trump in. 121
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 15/08/2026Yes it was awful. Mixture of cringy corny humor, with an undertone of mean spiritedness. 000
Reposted by Jim WilliamsonChris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 14/08/2026I’m on vacation but I gotta say, as much fun as it is to debate woke1 and Hasan Piker, the Trump administration is currently engaged in mass murder on the high seas as surely as any serial killer or lynch mob. And viewed from the distance of vacation, The Discourse doesn’t seem to give a shit. 20677951426
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 14/08/2026Great line from a really great, if uneven, album. 010
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Couldn’t we just have a big fireworks show in the US instead? 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Biden’s election was before the full pendulum swing against it. 120
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026If person A is at 50% odds and their chances double, they jump up to 67%. If they are at 98% and their chances double, they barely move, creeping up to 99%. This simple property of how probabilities change causes a lot of confusion. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026An optimal Bayesian model that factored in historical district-level patterns might not have done much better. Bayesian formula is a ratio of likelihoods, and thus is inherently (and correctly) very volatile when near the 50% mark. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026The fact that the markets bounced around a lot between, say, 50-80% for Crowley as the night wore on, and couldn’t conclusively decide, was an implicit prediction that the final result was going to be very close, which it was. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026I agree prediction markets did not adequately factor in historical error in primary polling and the unique qualities of this campaign beforehand. But I disagree with this take on how they performed once the votes started coming in. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026An optimal Bayesian model that factored in historical district-level patterns might not have done much better. Bayesian formula is a ratio of likelihoods, and thus is inherently (and correctly) very volatile when near the 50% mark. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026The fact that the markets bounced around a lot between, say, 50-80% for Crowley as the night wore on, and couldn’t conclusively decide, was an implicit prediction that the final result was going to be very close, which it was. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026I agree prediction markets did not adequately factor in historical error in primary polling and the unique qualities of this campaign beforehand. But I disagree with your take on how they performed once the votes started coming in. 110
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Didn’t they switch from striking tankers to the port due to his request? 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 12/08/2026The strategic cost was far greater than those other wars from the moment, a few days in, when it was apparent the Iranian regime would survive and control Hormuz. 0120
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Mysteriously he arrived with only four bags of nachos and half a bag of chicken wings. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 11/08/2026I’d love to see reporting on how defense companies like Lockheed or Raytheon are reacting to Trump. He seems to be blowing up their business model. 170
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 11/08/2026There were contrarian grifters. There are also many earnest well-intentioned people who thought the possibility of a lab leak was discounted too peremptorily and vociferously. 000
Reposted by Jim WilliamsonM Meerkat @kackbro.bsky.social · 10/08/2026THIS 👇 HERE, AS WELL....... 511130603759
Reposted by Jim WilliamsonJosh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 10/08/2026In today's episode of Only Democrats Have Power or Agency we learn that the US could end the Iran War and lower the price of gas and cost of living if only Democrats wld just stay quiet about Trump's humiliating defeat in his war of choice. 852620474
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 08/08/2026The harm from the war was orders of magnitude greater. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 08/08/2026Whether we support Israel with our tax dollars is a minor issue. It’s far more important that we never again let them sucker us into launching a war for them. The disastrous Iran war is unprecedented - the first time we’ve let another country con us into starting a war. 100
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 06/08/2026In our history. The idea he should avoid this topic and Israel’s role in it is crazy. The result of the war is major, possibly permanent, damage to our and the world’s economy. This is far more important than the Palestinian issue. 010
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 06/08/2026In our 250 year history, I can’t think of a single case in which another country convinced our government to launch a major war of choice on their behalf. Except, last Feb. when Israel convinced Trump to launch a war, which turned out to be possibly the most unpopular and strategically disastrous… 110
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 06/08/2026A moratorium on data centers is analogous to China abandoning naval and gunpowder weapon development in the 15th and 16th century. How did that work out for them? 110
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 05/08/2026I’ve normally been supportive of Israel, but after their government suckered us into launching a disastrous war, and they have spent years openly siding with Republicans, I am happily supporting Democratic candidates who are pushing to distance us from Israel, even if they would go further than me. 160
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 05/08/2026It’s a surrender ratchet. Best to stop while we’re behind. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Compared to the alternative of Trump escalating, resulting in the destruction of the Gulf and the world economy, it is a success in relative terms. 000
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Really excellent discussion. Looking forward to transcript for when audio cut out. 010
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 03/08/2026The threats really are big. An escalated war in the Gulf would be a worldwide economic catastrophe. My biggest fear throughout this war has been that Trump would eventually, out of frustration, follow through on his threats. 021
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 02/08/2026Debates about free will usually suffer from a levels of description problem. Some are talking at the level of human psychology (free will exists!), others at the level of atomic and quantum interactions (no free will!). 120
Jim Williamson @jiimwilliamson.bsky.social · 02/08/2026I’m not angry with the establishment, and I generally favor more centrist policies, but o fo want the Dems to elect people who will fight harder against Trump. 000