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The Nasdaq just broke out of its June–September rectangle. Bullish. But the RSI is at 70, the S&P 500 and the Dow show divergences, and small caps and the equal-weight S&P 500 are down 7–10%. No wind at its back. The scales tip toward a bull trap. I'll keep tracking it here.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart. A rectangle from June to September 2026 between 28,214 and 30,767. A bear trap in late July, when price closed below the floor and dropped to 27,176 before moving back inside. A breakout close at 30,808 on October 2, with a measured-move target of 33,319 (roof plus range height). Below, the 14-day RSI reaching the overbought line at 70.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 12h

Leopold Aschenbrenner put $12.4B to work in Q2, almost all behind one idea: memory chips. Micron and Sandisk are now more than half of his fund. You don't have to copy a bet like this to learn from it. I'll be sharing more great investors every week.

Donut chart of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness stock portfolio from its Q2 2026 13F: $20.2B in 23 stocks. Top holdings: Sandisk 28.1%, Micron 27.6%, Bloom Energy 9.4%, TSMC 6.3%, Nebius 6.1%. In Q2 it bought about $12.4B (Micron x278, Sandisk +119%, TSMC x118, Nebius new) and sold about $0.3B.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

My free weekly cycle map → research.jcrinvestment.com

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

The Dow Jones just confirmed a bearish MACD cross on the weekly chart. Natural target: the channel support around 43,400, where the 200-week average is heading (−15%). Not a crash. The level where the trend gets tested. Every week I map the cycle and what I'm doing about it.

Weekly Dow Jones chart since July 2022 with MACD. The MACD crossed below its signal line in September 2026. A rising channel support line through the October 2022 and October 2023 lows, touched again in April 2025, and the 200-week moving average converge around 43,400. A gold arrow points from the last close (51,177) down to that level, about 15% lower.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

Full breakdown this week → research.jcrinvestment.com

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

The Dow Jones is showing the same bearish divergence as the S&P 500. April to August: price +11%, momentum −27%. Each new high with less strength behind it. Two major US indices, same warning. More on this this week.

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average chart from February 2026 with MACD. Price rose from 49,393 in late April to a high of 54,744 in early August, while the MACD fell from 587 to 430, a bearish divergence. The MACD crossed below its signal line on August 17 and has stayed below for 35 sessions; the last close is 51,268.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

I'll track this setup with weekly updates → research.jcrinvestment.com

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

A setup I'm watching on the SOX. 2016–2022: false breakout, back to the base, bull market… then −49% back to the old channel ceiling. Today it looks almost identical. The old ceiling sits around 6,700. Not a prediction, just the level I'll be watching. Updates as it unfolds.

Weekly SOX chart 2016-2023 with a rising channel. 1: false breakout above the channel in February 2020. 2: back to the channel base in March 2020 (-38%). 3: real breakout and bull market to 4,068 in January 2022 (+230% from the base). 4: a 49% correction to the old channel ceiling, now support, in October 2022.

Weekly SOX chart since 2022 with the same setup. 1: false breakout above the channel in July 2024. 2: back to the base in April 2025 (-43%). 3: breakout and bull market to 14,655 in June 2026 (+332%). 4: a dashed arrow projects a possible move back to the old channel ceiling, around 6,700 (-49%), not happened yet.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

More market traps and my weekly cycle analysis → research.jcrinvestment.com

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

Market Trap #1: the false breakout. The SOX broke out of its channel in July 2024, trapped the bulls and fell 43% back to the base. From there came the real breakout. Strong breakouts start from the base, not from the top. First of a series. Follow along to spot the next one.

Weekly chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) from 2021 to 2025 inside a rising channel. Step 1: in July 2024 price breaks above the channel to 5,932, trapping bulls. Step 2: it falls 43% in 9 months back to the channel base at 3,389 in April 2025. Step 3: from the base it rallies and breaks out for real in September 2025.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

Full breakdown for long-term investors this week → research.jcrinvestment.com

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 06/10/2026

The S&P 500 has just signaled a bearish divergence. It could keep developing for weeks, but the trend is running out of steam. Not a crash, just a correction back to the moving average, around 23%. I'll break down what it means for long-term investors this week.

Weekly S&P 500 chart since July 2024 with MACD. Price made a higher high in September (7,782 vs 7,578 in June) while the MACD made a lower high and crossed below its signal line in September 2026. A gold arrow points from the last close (7,723) down to the projected 200-week EMA, around 6,091.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 05/10/2026

Everyone's talking about silver's huge run and how the rally can keep going. I'd be careful. It trades at more than twice its 200-month average, and the monthly MACD just flashed a sell signal from its highest reading on record. That can point to a correction lasting months, even years.

Monthly silver futures chart since 2001: price around $60, far above its 200-month moving average near $26, with the monthly MACD crossing to the downside from its highest reading on record.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 05/10/2026

Ethereum completes the picture. The same bearish divergence as Bitcoin and Solana on the daily chart. Higher highs in price, lower highs in the MACD. When three of the largest cryptos lose momentum at once, the rally is running out of steam.

Daily ETH chart from May to October 2026 with the MACD below. Price makes a higher high, from $2,564 on 27 August to $2,805 on 21 September, while the MACD makes a lower peak, from 169 to 98: a bearish divergence.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 04/10/2026

Bitcoin is showing a bearish divergence, at the same time as Solana and Ethereum. The rally is losing momentum, and that could signal a pullback in the coming weeks.

Daily BTC chart from May to October 2026 with the MACD below. Price makes a higher high, from $82,262 on 3 September to $87,364 on 21 September, while the MACD makes a lower peak, from 4,159 to 2,486: a bearish divergence.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 04/10/2026

The Nasdaq-100 rose 0.7%, yet not a single health care or staples stock finished the week green. 0 of 16. Nobody was looking for safety. I like it when people feel confident. But that's usually when I check how much of my portfolio depends on the same bet.

Nasdaq-100 sectors of the week, 28 Sep to 2 Oct 2026. Index +0.7%. Industrials +4.7% led by SpaceX, Technology +1.4%. Consumer Staples -2.3% with 0 of 7 stocks up, Health Care -4.0% with 0 of 9 stocks up.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 04/10/2026

Only 3 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week higher. Financials: just 7 of 76 stocks up. Banks are where the real economy shows up first. One week proves nothing. But if I wanted to see trouble coming before the headlines, this is the sector I'd watch.

S&P 500 sectors of the week, 28 Sep to 2 Oct 2026. 3 of 11 sectors up. Technology +1.4%, Energy +1.4%, Utilities +0.7%. At the bottom: Financials -2.5% with 7 of 76 stocks up, Health Care -2.7%. Index -0.3%.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 03/10/2026

Solana just confirmed a bearish divergence on the daily chart: higher highs in price, lower highs in the MACD. It's a sign the rally is losing steam and could point to a pullback in the coming weeks.

Daily SOL chart from May to October 2026 with the MACD below. Price makes a higher high, from $110.04 on 27 August to $124.62 on 27 September, while the MACD makes a lower high over the same days: a bearish divergence.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 03/10/2026

Fair Isaac just had its worst week in at least 10 years: -23.4%. Down 60.9% this year. Its score sits behind most US mortgages and credit cards. When the company that measures credit risk falls like this, I want to understand why before I call it cheap.

Fair Isaac (FICO), worst S&P 500 stock of the week, 28 Sep to 2 Oct 2026: -23.4%, its worst week in at least 10 years. Down 60.9% year to date, 64.8% below its 52-week high and 45.7% below its 200-day average. Chart of the last 12 months of daily closes.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 03/10/2026

The Nasdaq-100 closed the week up. The typical stock didn't: only 44 of 100 rose. Chips and the machines that make them did the heavy lifting. I own part of that trade too. But I'd be lying if I said that much concentration doesn't make me a little uneasy.

Nasdaq-100 movers of the week, 28 Sep to 2 Oct 2026. Index +0.7%, median stock -0.4%, 44 of 100 stocks up. Top: Lumentum +15.3%, Synopsys +15.1%, Teradyne +12.7%. Bottom: Alnylam -14.2%, AppLovin -13.7%.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 02/10/2026

Two out of three S&P 500 stocks went down this week. The index? Just -0.3%. The median stock lost 1.1%. A handful of giants are holding the index up. Not a reason to panic. Just a reason to look past the headline.

S&P 500 movers of the week, 28 Sep to 2 Oct 2026. Index -0.3%, median stock -1.1%, 170 of 499 stocks up. Top: Carnival +15.8%, Lumentum +15.3%, Synopsys +15.1%. Bottom: Fair Isaac -23.4%, AppLovin -13.7%.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 02/10/2026

Nike just reported earnings and is down more than 8% in pre-market. Weaker results than expected. As the saying goes, never try to catch a falling knife.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 01/10/2026

Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire's chairman, at 96. The company he leaves behind is already acting differently. For 14 straight quarters, it sold more stock than it bought. Following what great investors own is one of the best ways to learn. I'll be sharing more every week.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 01/10/2026

Micron's revenue grew almost 5x in a year. $MU Micron Q4 FY26 (Aug quarter): • Revenue +379% Y/Y to $54.2B ($2.9B beat). • Adjusted EPS $33.42 ($1.70 beat). • Q1 guidance: revenue $61.5B, +351% Y/Y ($59.1B expected). • Shares +1.1% pre-market.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 30/09/2026

For the first time on record, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has moved from below 4% to above 5.16%. In more than 60 years of data, it has never risen this fast. That can weigh on your portfolio and hit you directly the next time you apply for a loan.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 30/09/2026

Today you'll see people cheering that PCE came in below expectations. Don't. As of today, the US changed how it measures inflation. The new method knocks roughly 0.1–0.3 points off the number. Prices didn't slow down. The formula did. That's why stocks are only up modestly.

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