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The Euro Stoxx 50 has already flashed bearish signals on its daily and weekly charts. Now the monthly joins in: a bearish RSI divergence and a MACD turning down. If the MACD confirms the cross, a major correction could follow. I'll keep tracking it.

Monthly chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 since mid-2023, with the MACD and RSI 14 below. Price made a higher high, from 6,200 in February 2026 to 6,577 in August 2026, while the monthly RSI made a lower high, from 77 to 71: a bearish divergence. The monthly MACD peaked in August and is turning down, still just above its signal line.

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The Euro Stoxx 50 has flashed a bearish weekly MACD cross. The last two, in April 2025 and March 2026, were followed by 18% and 13% corrections. This time the daily and monthly charts are bearish too, in a far from friendly market. I'll keep updating as it unfolds.

Weekly chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 since January 2025 with the MACD and its histogram below. The weekly MACD peaked in August 2026 and crossed below its signal line in the week of 7 September 2026 (sell cross), and has kept falling. Earlier sell crosses in spring 2025 and March 2026 show as red histogram bars.

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In the Nasdaq-100, 6 of 7 sectors beat the index this week. The only one that fell is the one that carries it: technology, −0.7%. Utilities led with +7.7%, all four of them up. Health care, consumer staples and consumer discretionary all gained between 3.7% and 4.7%.

Nasdaq-100 sectors of the week, 5-9 Oct 2026. 6 of 7 sectors rose and 6 of 7 beat the index (+0.2%); best vs worst 8.4 points. Utilities +7.7% (4 of 4 up, top Constellation Energy +15.8%), Health Care +4.7% (top Moderna +18.4%), Consumer Staples +4.6% (7 of 7 up, top Walmart +6.8%), Consumer Discretionary +3.7% (top MercadoLibre +11.4%), Industrials +1.9%, Communication +1.1%, Technology -0.7% (19 of 42 up, top Shopify +12.9%), Other sectors +1.9%. @JCRInvestment

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Railroads, radio, the internet. Today it's AI. Templeton called "this time is different" the four most costly words in investing. Each week, one lesson from the legends, backed by research on where we are in the cycle. Follow along.

Quote card. Sir John Templeton, "16 Rules for Investment Success", World Monitor, 1993: "The investor who says, 'This time is different,' when in fact it's virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing." The lesson: Every bubble has a story about why it is different. The cycle has heard it before.

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The Nasdaq-100 barely moved this week, +0.2%. But the typical stock in it rose 1.7%, and 64 of 100 finished higher.

Nasdaq-100 movers of the week, 5-9 Oct 2026. The index rose 0.2%, the median stock 1.7%, 64 of 100 stocks rose, and 61% are above their 200-day moving average. Best performers: Moderna +18.4%, Constellation Energy +15.8%, Shopify +12.9%, MercadoLibre +11.4%, Autodesk +11.0%, Palantir +10.8%, Intuitive Surgical +8.2%, PDD +7.9%, Intuit +7.7%, Fortinet +7.6%. Worst performers: Arm -13.4%, Intel -12.3%, Teradyne -10.3%, T-Mobile US -9.2%, Nebius Group -9.0%. @JCRInvestment

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The Euro Stoxx 50 flagged a bearish divergence two months ago. It's playing out: down about 7%, testing its 200-day average. The weekly and monthly charts are flashing warnings, as Europe faces a winter oil shortage and a debt crisis in France. It points to a correction. I'll keep tracking it.

Daily chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 with the MACD below. From June to August 2026 the index made a higher high, from 6,329 to 6,575, while the MACD made a lower high: a bearish divergence. Since then it has fallen to 6,180, approaching its 200-day EMA at 6,088.

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Yesterday: a weekly divergence that led the Hang Seng to a 20% drop. Now the monthly: an overbought RSI and a MACD falling for 7 months. An even bigger warning. First stop: its 200-month average, about 8% below. If it breaks, the next support is around 34% down. I'll keep tracking it here.

Monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index since 2019, with its 200-month EMA at 21,982, and the MACD and RSI 14 below. The monthly MACD peaked in February 2026 and has fallen for 7 months, with a sell cross in June 2026. The monthly RSI reached 71 in September 2025, above 70 for the first time since 2018.

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9 of 11 sectors rose this week. The two that fell are the ones that have led this market: technology and industrials.

S&P 500 sectors of the week, 5-9 Oct 2026. 9 of 11 sectors rose and 8 of 11 beat the index (+1.2%); best vs worst 4.4 points. Consumer Staples +4.0% (30 of 34 up), Utilities +3.9% (30 of 31 up, top Constellation Energy +15.8%), Energy +3.6% (21 of 21 up), Consumer Discretionary +3.1%, Health Care +2.8%, Financials +2.3%, Real Estate +1.8%, Materials +1.4%, Communication +0.8%, Technology -0.3%, Industrials -0.4%. @JCRInvestment

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Buffett wrote this in 2002, as the dot-com bubble burst. When everything goes up, everyone looks like a genius. Debt and bad bets stay hidden until the market turns. Each week, one lesson from the legends, backed by research on where we are in the cycle. Follow along.

Quote card. Warren Buffett, letter to Berkshire shareholders, 28 February 2002: "After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out." The lesson: A rising market hides the weak hands. The turn of the cycle shows them.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 09/10/2026

The S&P 500 hit a record on Tuesday, but the real story is underneath. The typical stock rose 1.6%, more than the index’s 1.2%, and 7 in 10 stocks finished the week higher. Money moved into staples, utilities and energy, while tech lagged.

S&P 500 movers of the week, 5-9 Oct 2026. The index rose 1.2%, the median stock 1.6%, 351 of 500 stocks (70%) rose, and 47% are above their 200-day moving average. Best performers: PTC +35.0%, Crown Castle +19.9%, Moderna +18.4%, Constellation Energy +15.8%, Vistra +15.3%, SBA Communications +15.1%, Ciena +14.9%, NRG Energy +13.4%, American Tower +12.4%, Cboe Global Markets +12.1%. Worst performers: Intel -12.3%, Mosaic -11.1%, Teradyne -10.3%, Skyworks Solutions -10.2%, C.H. Robinson -9.8%. @JCRInvestment

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Hong Kong's Hang Seng flagged a weekly bearish divergence early this year. It played out: down 20%, to its 200-week average, where it bounced. Now its monthly chart is flashing another bearish signal. With similar signals across the market, more downside could follow. I'll keep tracking it here.

Weekly chart of the Hang Seng Index with the MACD below. Between the week of 16 March 2025 and the week of 25 January 2026 the index made a higher high, from 24,874 to 28,056, while the weekly MACD made a much lower high: a bearish divergence. The index then fell 20% to 22,518 in June 2026, touching its 200-week EMA, now at 23,087.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 09/10/2026

Daily divergence: an almost 10% drop. Weekly: a new divergence. Monthly: the MACD has turned down and the RSI is leaving overbought. For the 25% drop to play out, the monthly MACD needs to cross down. If it doesn't, the uptrend carries on. I'll keep sharing it here.

Monthly chart of the Russell 2000 since 2019, with the MACD and the RSI 14 below. The monthly MACD peaked in August 2026 at its highest level on record and is now turning down, still above its signal line. The monthly RSI reached 73 in June 2026, above the 70 overbought line for the first time since 2021, and has eased to 61.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 09/10/2026

Druckenmiller's biggest position isn't tech. It's Natera, a genetic testing company: almost 20% of his portfolio. In Q2 he opened 40 positions and exited 22. Yet one in five dollars sits in Natera. I'm doing a full breakdown of Natera this Sunday. Follow along.

Donut chart of Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office stock and ETF portfolio from its Q2 2026 13F: $4.4B in 85 holdings. Top holdings: Natera 19.9%, TSMC 6.5%, STMicro 5.3%, Insmed 3.5%, Fox 3.3%. In Q2 it bought about $1.6B (Fox, Alphabet and CDW new, Amazon x12) and sold about $0.8B (Broadcom sold all).

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The Russell 2000 keeps flashing bearish signals: a divergence on the weekly chart, right after an almost 10% drop from a daily divergence. With signals like these across the whole market, they point to a drop of around 25%. I'll keep tracking it here. Follow along.

Weekly chart of the Russell 2000 with the MACD below. Between the week of 29 June and the week of 10 August 2026 the index made a slightly higher high, from 3,047 to 3,070, while the weekly MACD made a lower high: a bearish divergence. The MACD then crossed below its signal line (sell cross). The 200-week EMA sits at 2,324.

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A couple of months ago the Russell 2000 flagged this bearish divergence. It played out: almost 10% down, to its 200-day average, where it stalled. Now the weekly and monthly charts are flashing bearish signals too, pointing to a bigger correction, around 25%. I'll share them here.

Daily chart of the Russell 2000 with the MACD below. From May to August 2026 the index made a higher high, from 2,889 to 3,070, while the MACD made a lower high: a bearish divergence. Since then it has fallen to 2,793, right on its 200-day EMA at 2,785.

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After its bearish divergences, Bitcoin has now formed a double top on the daily chart. The big rally looks like it's ending, and a correction could follow, deeper or shallower depending on the market. I'll keep tracking it here.

Bitcoin daily chart showing a double top: two peaks at 87,364 (September 21) and 87,146 (October 2), a neckline at 82,571 and a measured target at 77,778, 6% below the neckline. A side panel explains the double top pattern and says it confirms with a daily close below 82,571.

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Everyone quotes this Buffett line. Very few follow it. He never tried to predict fear or greed. He just leaned against the crowd. Right now I see more greed than fear. Each week, one lesson from the legends, backed by research on where we are in the cycle. Follow along.

Quote card. Warren Buffett, letter to Berkshire shareholders, 27 February 1987: "Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." The lesson: Fear and greed always come back. The cycle tells you which one is in charge.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 07/10/2026

PepsiCo sold more than expected this quarter. Revenue rose 5.6% to $25.3B, and profit per share beat too. But the number that matters came next: it cut its profit outlook for the year. It now expects earnings per share to grow 2.5% to 3.5%, down from at least 5%.

PepsiCo Q3 2026 earnings card. Headline: Selling more, earning less: rising costs are eating the profits. Revenue $25.3B, up 5.6% year over year, beat expectations. Key metric: 2026 core EPS growth guidance +2.5% to +3.5%, cut from +5%. Adjusted EPS $2.34, beat. Gross margin 54.4%. Shares +0.9% pre-market. Bar chart of quarterly revenue since Q4 2023.

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The Nasdaq just broke out of its June–September rectangle. Bullish. But the RSI is at 70, the S&P 500 and the Dow show divergences, and small caps and the equal-weight S&P 500 are down 7–10%. No wind at its back. The scales tip toward a bull trap. I'll keep tracking it here.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart. A rectangle from June to September 2026 between 28,214 and 30,767. A bear trap in late July, when price closed below the floor and dropped to 27,176 before moving back inside. A breakout close at 30,808 on October 2, with a measured-move target of 33,319 (roof plus range height). Below, the 14-day RSI reaching the overbought line at 70.

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J.C. Rodriguez @jcrinvestment.com · 07/10/2026

Leopold Aschenbrenner put $12.4B to work in Q2, almost all behind one idea: memory chips. Micron and Sandisk are now more than half of his fund. You don't have to copy a bet like this to learn from it. I'll be sharing more great investors every week.

Donut chart of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness stock portfolio from its Q2 2026 13F: $20.2B in 23 stocks. Top holdings: Sandisk 28.1%, Micron 27.6%, Bloom Energy 9.4%, TSMC 6.3%, Nebius 6.1%. In Q2 it bought about $12.4B (Micron x278, Sandisk +119%, TSMC x118, Nebius new) and sold about $0.3B.

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The Dow Jones just confirmed a bearish MACD cross on the weekly chart. Natural target: the channel support around 43,400, where the 200-week average is heading (−15%). Not a crash. The level where the trend gets tested. Every week I map the cycle and what I'm doing about it.

Weekly Dow Jones chart since July 2022 with MACD. The MACD crossed below its signal line in September 2026. A rising channel support line through the October 2022 and October 2023 lows, touched again in April 2025, and the 200-week moving average converge around 43,400. A gold arrow points from the last close (51,177) down to that level, about 15% lower.

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The Dow Jones is showing the same bearish divergence as the S&P 500. April to August: price +11%, momentum −27%. Each new high with less strength behind it. Two major US indices, same warning. More on this this week.

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average chart from February 2026 with MACD. Price rose from 49,393 in late April to a high of 54,744 in early August, while the MACD fell from 587 to 430, a bearish divergence. The MACD crossed below its signal line on August 17 and has stayed below for 35 sessions; the last close is 51,268.

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A setup I'm watching on the SOX. 2016–2022: false breakout, back to the base, bull market… then −49% back to the old channel ceiling. Today it looks almost identical. The old ceiling sits around 6,700. Not a prediction, just the level I'll be watching. Updates as it unfolds.

Weekly SOX chart 2016-2023 with a rising channel. 1: false breakout above the channel in February 2020. 2: back to the channel base in March 2020 (-38%). 3: real breakout and bull market to 4,068 in January 2022 (+230% from the base). 4: a 49% correction to the old channel ceiling, now support, in October 2022.

Weekly SOX chart since 2022 with the same setup. 1: false breakout above the channel in July 2024. 2: back to the base in April 2025 (-43%). 3: breakout and bull market to 14,655 in June 2026 (+332%). 4: a dashed arrow projects a possible move back to the old channel ceiling, around 6,700 (-49%), not happened yet.

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Market Trap #1: the false breakout. The SOX broke out of its channel in July 2024, trapped the bulls and fell 43% back to the base. From there came the real breakout. Strong breakouts start from the base, not from the top. First of a series. Follow along to spot the next one.

Weekly chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) from 2021 to 2025 inside a rising channel. Step 1: in July 2024 price breaks above the channel to 5,932, trapping bulls. Step 2: it falls 43% in 9 months back to the channel base at 3,389 in April 2025. Step 3: from the base it rallies and breaks out for real in September 2025.

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