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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

...including randomized controlled trials, difference-in-differences, and synthetic control methods, and discusses their strengths and limitations. The chapter concludes by addressing key challenges, such as model dependence and external validity.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

This chapter explores how counterfactual thinking and quasi-experimental methods have transformed applied microeconomics, macroeconomics, economic history, and the broader social sciences. It examines the toolkit of modern causal inference...

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

ABSTRACT: Empirical economics has been transformed by the “credibility revolution”, which centers on the principle that credible causal claims require well-designed strategies for constructing valid counterfactuals...

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

📍 Reference Module in Social Science (Elsevier); forthcoming in the Encyclopedia of Measurement in Social Sciences, 2nd edition (Oct 2026) 🗓️ Date of publication: 19 November 2025 🔗 DOI: doi.org/10.1016/B978...

doi.org

Redirecting

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

🎉 NEW BOOK CHAPTER 🎉 📘 Title: Counterfactuals in economics and allied social sciences: Methods, applications, and debates 👨🏼‍🏫 Authors: JC Punongbayan (UPSE) & Alfredo Paloyo (University of Wollongong)

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Gravel Influencer @gravelinfluencer.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Halloween is the perfect example of how the time spent in or around cars are the most dangerous periods of any day for most Americans. And it is rarely acknowledged on a wide scale.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

📘 Title: Debt, Dictatorship, and Decline: The Enduring Economic Impact of the Philippines' 1980s Crisis 👨🏼‍🏫 Authors: JC Punongbayan (UPSE) & Emmanuel S. de Dios (UPSE) 📍 Journal: Review of Development Economics 🗓️ Date of publication: 4 October 2025 🔗 Read here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Debt, Dictatorship, and Decline: The Enduring Economic Impact of the Philippines' 1980s Crisis

One of the enduring economic puzzles in East Asia is the Philippines' lagging economic performance since the late 20th century. This paper examines the long-run consequences of the country's sovereig...

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

💡 We quantify the lasting economic scars from the Marcos-era debt crisis of the early 1980s—showing how authoritarian mismanagement set the Philippines' growth path back for decades. A fresh contribution to understanding the long shadow of the Marcos dictatorship on our economy.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

🎉 NEW JOURNAL PUBLICATION 🎉 Happy to share my latest journal article in Review of Development Economics (SSCI, Scopus), co-authored with UPSE Prof. Emeritus Emmanuel S. de Dios!

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

🧾 Bottom line: The “boom & bust” of Marcos’s rule shows how dictatorship traded lasting development for power & rents—leaving deep scars on the PH economy.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

🧠 Highlights: – Growth built on debt & short-term gains – No shift to sustainable dev’t path – Cronyism, rent-seeking, bad trade policy – Debt crisis + collapse in the 1980s

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

🔍 Marcos’s martial law years (1972–86) saw early growth fueled by borrowing & favorable global winds—but these same choices sowed the seeds of collapse by 1984–86.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

📍 Book: The Marcos Years: The Age of Crisis and Repression, edited by Ferdinand C. Llanes 🗓️ Date of publication: February 2023 🔗 econstor.eu/bitstream/10... (working paper version)

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

[RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT] 📘 Title: Martial law and the Philippine economy 👨🏼‍🏫 Authors: Emmanuel S. de Dios, Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, & JC Punongbayan (UP School of Economics)

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Charles Johnson @charles.littlegreenfootballs.com · 06/09/2025

With Nazi helmets, for fuck’s sake.

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Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

DOGE....government waste alert...

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

🧾 Bottom line: Far from a “golden age,” the Duterte and early Marcos Jr. years illustrate how complacency, disinformation, and misplaced priorities can derail economic momentum and deepen structural weaknesses in the Philippine economy.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

– Duterte stayed popular despite econ troubles—disinfo & personality politics at work. – Marcos Jr.’s first year = weak governance: inflation, agri fiascos, Maharlika risks. – Long-term threats: education crisis, social protection gaps, energy shortages, fiscal strains.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

🧠 Highlights: – TRAIN, CREATE & “Build, Build, Build” fell short. – 2018 inflation + pandemic recession exposed weak econ management. – Poverty drop in 2018 owed more to earlier growth & 4Ps than Duterte’s policies.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

📍 Book: Games, Changes, and Fears: The Philippines from Duterte to Marcos Jr. (edited by Aries Arugay and Jean Encinas-Franco, published by ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute) 🗓️ Date of publication: April 2024 🔗 bookshop.iseas.edu.sg/publication/...

bookshop.iseas.edu.sg

Games, Changes, and Fears: The Philippines from Duterte to Marcos Jr. | ISEAS Publishing

Rodrigo Duterte’s rise and the Marcoses’ return to power have captivated Southeast Asia watchers and the rest of the world. That the spectacle of strongman rule has allured most Filipinos is no longer...

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

[RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT] 📘 Title: Much a Duterte about nothing: Continuity, complacency, and crisis in the Philippine economy (2016–23) 👨🏼‍🏫 Author: JC Punongbayan (UP School of Economics)

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

🧠 Key finding #3: High electricity prices also deter foreign investors + hurt expansion of local firms. 💡 Policy insight: If PH wants to revive manufacturing, we need cheaper & more reliable electricity.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

🧠 Key finding #1: High power prices → industry peaks earlier at lower income levels → declines faster afterward. 🧠 Key finding #2: 🇮🇩 Indonesia (low power costs) → metals & chemicals boomed. 🇵🇭 Philippines (high costs) → shifted to less power-intensive, labor-intensive subsectors.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

🔍 Why did PH deindustrialize so early? Our study shows high electricity prices played a big role. ⚡️ Using data from 33 countries (1980–2014) + PH regions (1990–2014), we find that costly power discouraged investment in power-intensive industries.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

📍 Journal: Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 61 🗓️ Date of publication: 16 April 2019 🔗 Read here: doi.org/10.1016/j.as...

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

[RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT] 📘 Title: The role of power prices in structural transformation: Evidence from the Philippines 👨🏼‍🏫 Authors: Majah Ravago, Arlan Brucal, James Roumasset & JC Punongbayan

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

💡 Whether you’re a student, policymaker, or fellow social scientist, I hope this interview inspires you as much as it did me. #EconTwitter #Economics #Philippines #UPSE #SocialScience

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

🧠 Highlights: ✅ Why you need to learn mainstream economics to critique it ✅ The rise (and limits) of empirical methods in economics ✅ The role of UPSE in shaping Philippine technocracy ✅ Advice for young economists on theory, passion & responsibility

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

We talk about: ▪️ His years as a student activist ▪️ His mentors, especially José Encarnación Jr. ▪️ His work on trade, economic history, and institutions ▪️ UPSE’s legacy and influence in Philippine policymaking

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

🔍 What is it about? This interview traces the intellectual and personal journey of Prof. Emeritus Noel de Dios—from his early Marxist roots to his engagement with neoclassical economics and institutional theory.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

📘 Title: Conversations with Social Scientists: Economist Emmanuel S. de Dios, PhD 👨🏼‍🏫 Author: JC Punongbayan (UP School of Economics) 📍 Journal: Social Science Diliman 🗓️ Date: August 2024 🔗 Read here (FREE to download): journals.upd.edu.ph/index.php/so...

journals.upd.edu.ph

Conversations with Social Scientists: Economist Emmanuel S. de Dios, PhD | Social Science Diliman: A Philippine Journal of Society and Change

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

[RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT] I had the honor of interviewing one of the country’s foremost economists: UPSE Prof. Emeritus Emmanuel S. de Dios. 🧵We talked about his intellectual journey (including his Marxist roots), the role of UPSE in society, and his advice for young economists.👇

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 12/07/2025

My latest Rappler column, an expanded annotation of Trump's 20% tariff letter to President Marcos Jr. Trump's economic illiteracy is bringing down the global economic and trading order. www.rappler.com/voices/thoug...

rappler.com

[In This Economy] Trump’s tariff letter to Marcos, annotated

Apart from being badly written, the letter reeks of Trump’s economic illiteracy, which is now on the cusp of bringing down the global trading and economic order

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

🧠 To thrive in the next 50 years, the journal must pivot to more urgent topics (like climate, education, AI, and public finance), embrace the “credibility revolution” in economic methods, and invest in greater public visibility.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

🧠 Bottom line: While the PJD has been a cornerstone of development policy research in the Philippines, it remains undercited and underrecognized.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

🔍 The piece identifies the PJD's key strengths—such as its multidisciplinary focus and contributions to trade, agriculture, health, and public economics—as well as key weaknesses, notably low visibility and limited uptake by global indexing services.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

🔍What is it about? This article, published in the 50th year of the Philippine Journal of Development (PJD), surveys two decades of articles published in the PJD, highlighting topic trends, authorship patterns, and methodological evolution from 2002 to 2023.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

[RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT] 📘 Title: The Philippine Journal of Development in the Early 21st Century (2002–2023) 👨🏼‍🏫 Author: JC Punongbayan (UP School of Economics) 📍 Journal: Philippine Journal of Development, Vol. 48, No. 2

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

This research was made possible by the support of CARD Inc. and ASA Philippines. We hope it sparks more data-driven conversations on #Microfinance, #FinancialInclusion, and #EconomicResilience. 🇵🇭 Read the full report here: 🔗https://www.wesolve.ph/philippine-microfinance-report

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

💡 Policy insight: Microfinance is more than just loans—it's perceived by many as a tool for building financial resilience. Expanding inclusive, well-designed microfinance and financial literacy programs may help strengthen households’ capacity to cope with economic shocks.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

But it's not a magic bullet. ❗We still found major gaps in access to financial services ❗Financial literacy remains low, especially among the poorest

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

🧠 Key findings: ✅ Many respondents perceive that microfinance helps them smooth consumption during hard times ✅ They associate microfinance with greater economic resilience ✅ Borrowers often report increased exposure to financial literacy programs

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

🔍 We looked at how microfinance helps families cope with economic shocks: COVID-19, inflation, typhoons, job loss, and more.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

🔍What is it about? The study presents results of the Philippine Microfinance Survey, conducted in 2024. It's a comprehensive nationwide survey on microfinance, covering 1,900 households across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

📘 Title: Microfinance and household shocks in the Philippines: evidence from the Philippine Microfinance Survey 👨🏼‍🏫 Authors: JC Punongbayan, Rapa Lopa, Solomon Sarne, Hya Bendaña, Aika Robredo & Nicole Cobarrubias 📍 Published by: WeSolve Foundation 🗓️ Released: 2 July 2025

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

📕 NEW STUDY ON MICROFINANCE! 📕 We're proud to share our latest research based on a national survey of 1,900 Filipino households. 🧵👇

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Atul Gawande @agawande.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

📩 We’d love your feedback! Email: jbpunongbayan@up.edu.ph

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JC Punongbayan @jcpunongbayan.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

🎓 The results suggest we need better alignment between SHS strands and college degree programs—especially in STEM. This matters as we continue building the K–12 system and try to improve student outcomes in higher education.

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