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How much was this consultancy paid to produce projections that matched exactly what city leaders needed? Just curious.

Now the study has arrived, and it projects almost exactly the amount of revenue to cover the cost of the borrowing. Are Kansas City’s city leaders really such financial savants that they picked the right number months before the analysis was finished? Or were Hunden’s projections tortured until they produced a number just high enough to make the deal pencil out? You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to suspect the latter.

Kansas City's mayor is touting non-credible findings of a commissioned "study" that projects a revenue boost from the Royals stadium. It's malfeasance for an elected official to present purchased propaganda as some sort of reasonable projection of a favorable policy outcome. x.com/QuintonLucas...

$Mayor Q @QuintonLucasKC · 1h Today, we talk the impact district around the new Crown Center Stadium. The model is used around the country to ensure activity near a stadium funds redevelopment, not new taxes. Our model represents a fraction of our city and is 52 times smaller than the proposal to our west.$

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 13h

We're three weeks away from my Atlanta book launch event at Manuel's Tavern (Oct. 27 at 7pm), hosted by A Cappella Books (@acappellabooks.bsky.social). Looking forward to a lively conversation with Rafi Kohan about This One Will Be Different.

Event poster for J.C. Bradbury discussing This One Will Be Different with Rafi Kohan on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, at 7:00 PM at Manuel’s Tavern in Atlanta. The poster features the book cover and photos of Bradbury and Kohan. Presented by A Cappella Books; free entry, with books available for purchase.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 05/10/2026

I'm an economist who's spent much of the past decade conducting and reading research on this subject. Seriously, what the hell is this?

What follows is an AI description of a presentation slide with a bar chart and numbers in a table. I have no idea what any of it means.

Hunden Partners slide titled “Sensitivity – Expanded Impact Area.” Text states that its revenue model assumes 2% growth using 2025 as the base year. A table shows food and beverage sales rising from $175,552,054 in 2024 to $183,909,806 in 2025, up 4.76%; other sales rise from $385,049,867 to $388,471,227, up 0.89%. Total sales increase 2.10%, from $560,601,921 to $572,381,033. A bar chart shows projected expanded district revenues increasing from $600 million at 1% growth to $798.1 million at 3% growth. The 2% assumption is highlighted in green at $688 million. A red-to-green sensitivity table combines growth rates of 1%–3% with food and beverage spending of $18–$30, producing revenue estimates ranging from approximately $596.8 million to $801.5 million.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 05/10/2026

How much did they pay these consultants to tell them something I demonstrated two years ago for free? onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author...

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 05/10/2026

Reminder, when it comes to describing economists' views on stadium subsidies: "Avoid phrases of convenience that describe objecting economists as merely 'skeptical or 'not convinced.'"

Stop Taking Economic Impact Reports Seriously Over my career, I have read scores of commissioned reports on stadium proposals, and I have yet to read one that did not make me want to pull my hair out in clumps. These are not serious studies, and thus the media should not treat them as credible analyses. These fantasy documents are propaganda, not reputable sources of reasonable projections of economic benefits from stadium projects that can be compared to the mountains of contrary academic research on the subject. To report the economic impact claims of commissioned reports out of “fairness” is no different than reporting motivated pseudoscientific claims of anti-vaxxers posted on internet message boards. This is misinformation that should not be shared with readers, because it does not provide a reasonable alternative perspective.
The best policy for assessing economic impact studies is to ignore them altogether unless they use a method demonstrated to predict well—although I’ve never seen one that did. If a media outlet wishes to cover the findings of a commissioned report, then it should do so in a way that accurately balances the findings with the information that the estimates are not consistent with the bulk of the evidence. The reporting should also note that the estimates have not been vetted through expert peer review, which means they should be viewed suspiciously until they have been verified. Avoid phrases of convenience that describe objecting economists as merely “skeptical” or “not convinced.”

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 05/10/2026

Ron Hunden of Hunden Partners, which conducted the "Revenue & Impact Study" for KC has a BS in Finance. Perhaps I missed it, but I don't see anyone on staff with a graduate degree in economics. How is this group qualified to conduct this analysis?

Mr. Hunden’s public-private project and economic development career began at the Indianapolis Bond Bank and the Indianapolis Mayor’s Office from 1996 through 1998, where he managed more than a dozen projects, including the 1999 Indiana Convention Center expansion, the RCA Dome expansion, development of the 650-room Marriott and Conseco/Bankers Life/Gainbridge Fieldhouse. He also worked on the repurposing and conversion of Glendale Mall, Union Station, and the development of the Emmis Headquarters on Monument Circle. From 1994 to 1996, he worked in financial consulting in the Washington, DC area for clients including six presidential candidates.

Rob has written articles on downtown development and taught college-level Destination Development, Tourism and related courses at Kendall College in Chicago. He has also sat on advisory boards for the Center for Real Estate Studies at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, DePaul University’s School of Hospitality and for IAVM’s Allied Member committee. Mr. Hunden is a member of Destinations International, the International Society of Hospitality Consultants (ISHC), ULI, IEDC, IAVM, and ICMA. He has conducted IEDC panel discussions and taught numerous professional development courses for IEDC over the past 20 years. Mr. Hunden received a B.S. in Finance from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 05/10/2026

My advice for how commissioned studies should be treated by the media. doi.org/10.1093/9780...

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 05/10/2026

Here's the client list of the consultancy who conducted the commissioned "Revenue & Impact Study" of the KC Royals stadium. How many clients would it have if it showed what the actual research evidence has demonstrated for 50 years? This isn't a "study" it's purchased propaganda.

Hunden Partners slide titled “Sports & Entertainment Experience: Past Clients & Collaborators.” A grid displays 35 professional sports team and university logos, including the Washington Commanders, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia 76ers, LSU, and University of Oklahoma. An entertainment column lists Live Nation, Legends Global, AEG Presents, Oak View Group, Feld Entertainment, and CAA ICON.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 05/10/2026

Again: No method exists for projecting the economic impacts of sports stadiums. What we do know is that no stadium has ever generated enough new tax revenue to pay for itself. There's a reason you have to hire a paid consultant to come of with these numbers: they're bogus. @gpropheter.bsky.social:

But researcher Geoffrey Propheter, a professor at the University of Colorado-Denver who studies stadium financing, cast doubt on the district looping in businesses that could be miles away from the stadium and calls for incentives that align more closely with the footprint of the stadium itself. Some economists regularly question the touted economic impact of pricey, publicly-supported stadium deals around the country “There’s no way you could draw something this large and with a straight face say, ‘I’m only targeting people who are here because of the stadium,’” he said. “Now, if that was true, your TIF would be only the stadium footprint. Even then, that’s not precise.”

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 03/10/2026

I think I've spotted a flaw in this argument.

Kevin Wells
@Wells15Kevin
Great reporting here.

1: Bears finance the construction in full
2: Arlington Heights leases stadium to team*
3: Bears are property tax exempt
4: Cook Co. and Chi. still see tax dollars flow in

*AH/Rolling Meadows would be in charge of handling tax implications.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 03/10/2026

Exactly. Dundon is just an asshole. It's time for Portland and Oregon leaders to stand up to this jerk. This treatment isn't worth an NBA team. You're better than this.

But where could he go? A member of the St. Louis sports authority said the city has no interest in the Trail Blazers, and the appetite among citizens to build an arena is at an all-time low. Same thing for Raleigh, N.C., where Dundon’s Carolina Hurricanes play. And Nashville is not currently interested in taking on an NBA team and too close to another NBA market. City officials from Kansas City and Austin didn’t return calls. So I’m not sure where Dundon could take his circus next.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 02/10/2026

It's worth remembering that the public corporation Liberty Media acquired the Atlanta Braves to reap $300 million in tax savings. www.ajc.com/sports/atlan...

Liberty Media acquired the Braves in 2007 as part of a complex transaction in which Liberty swapped 68.5 million shares of stock it held in Time Warner (a stake valued at about $1.5 billion at the time) for the Braves (valued at $450 million at the time), a group of crafts magazines and about $960 million in cash. The structure of the deal was estimated to have generated tax savings of as much as $300 million for Liberty.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 02/10/2026

Is it fair that a private company got a $300 million subsidy from taxpayers?

Jack visited Major League Baseball’s annual meeting in Orlando last year to pave the way for the legislation. He and U.S. Rep. Clay Fuller also recently met with team officials to finalize the bill.

“The Atlanta Braves should not be unfairly penalized for operating as a publicly traded corporation,” said Jack.

“Fans deserve fairness in professional sports, and all teams should compete on equal playing fields.”

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 02/10/2026

Looks like the Atlanta Braves are back for more taxpayer subsidies.

Cartoon from The Giving Tree of an elderly man wearing a navy-and-red Atlanta Braves cap and holding a tomahawk in Braves colors like an axe. He faces a tree stump labeled “TAXPAYERS,” suggesting the team has depleted taxpayers’ resources.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 30/09/2026

Stadium boosters sharing the commissioned economic impact "study"

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 29/09/2026

How stadiums get taxpayer subsidies

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 29/09/2026

What is an "unspoken threat"? The Blazers have nowhere better to go and zero offers on the table. Either the team is threatening to leave or it isn't.

New owner Tom Dundon has an unspoken threat that he may try to move the Trail Blazers out of Portland in 2030. That’s the backdrop for negotiations between the Dundon-led ownership group and the city of Portland over a new lease and renovations for the Moda Center, the city-owned arena that’s home to the Trail Blazers and the WNBA’s Portland Fire.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 28/09/2026

Stadium districts are one of the many fiscal illusions that stadium boosters use to claim that a public stadium project will pay for itself. From my book chapter on different types of stadium financing: doi.org/10.1093/9780...

Though some surrounding spending may be connected to stadium events,
the tax revenue raised from commercial activity in a stadium district is not
costless to the local community. Spending within the district boundary comes
mostly at the expense of economic activity from other local businesses outside
the district, whose tax collections decrease correspondingly. This is problematic
for the broader municipal jurisdiction because tax revenue that previously supported
general government operations is now diverted to pay off the stadium
and sometimes related infrastructure. Rather than adding to local tax collections,
district assessments largely cannibalize existing tax revenue that supports
other government priorities, which must then be replaced with additional taxes
or implementing service cuts. And because sports teams play only a limited number
of games, most business in the area has little to do with stadium events, but
the reallocated tax revenue raised on non–game days continues to go toward
paying off the venue.
The problem isn’t just that stadiums are poor anchors for stimulating economic
development—which is a big problem—but TIF districts often don’t
generate sufficient revenue to be self-financing, as one comprehensive review
of research on their effectiveness found: “While there is variation from district
to district, many of the studies conclude that the projects do not pay for
themselves . . . or they take a long time to break even.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 28/09/2026

"Restaurants like Brick House and Martin City Pizza’s Crossroads location fall within the draft boundaries, and both said *they are ready for the boost*."

2 panel Simpsons meme:
Panel 1: An obese Homer smiles at the counter while purchasing "Massive Weight Gain Power"
Panel 2: Store clerk says: "Lucky for you, this stuff doesn't work."

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 27/09/2026

The White House using "the MLB" should be a national scandal.

The White House said MLB has not made any decisions and the Park Service has not granted any permits. “If the MLB wants to go on site visits of national parks, that is their prerogative,” the statement said.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 27/09/2026

Here's a study I did. Ungated link: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author...

DO MOVIE PRODUCTION INCENTIVES GENERATE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT?
John Charles Bradbury

Abstract
Movie production incentives (MPIs) are a popular economic development strategy employed by U.S. states. Film subsidies are intended to encourage external investment into a nascent industry that spills over onto complementary industries to generate economic growth through a multiplier. Despite their widespread use, the positive impact of MPIs on state economies has not been documented, and several states have halted their MPI programs due to high costs and questionable efficacy. This study exploits the staggered implementation, suspension, and elimination of film incentive programs across states to estimate the macroeconomic impact of MPIs. Instrumental variable estimates that permit causal inference do not support the hypothesized positive impacts of film incentives on state economies.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 27/09/2026

Uh, no. No study has ever demonstrated any economic benefits from film production that justifies government incentives. The subject has been studied extensively, and all the results demonstrate the opposite.

U.S. Rep. Brian Jack, R-Peachtree City, whose congressional district includes Trilith Studios, is a co-sponsor on the House bill. In a statement, he said he represents “the craftsmen, electricians, and carpenters who work hard to create movies that inspire generations of Americans.”
“Study after study has demonstrated that American film production delivers substantial economic benefits to communities across our country by creating jobs, supporting local businesses, and generating millions of dollars in local economic activity,” Jack said.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 26/09/2026

Sure is nice to finally hold this in my hand.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 22/09/2026

Folks, *THIS* is what's being used to counter 100+ academic studies published over 50 years. This is like a phony "Sexiest Man Alive" People Magazine cover you purchase at a carnival. It's not a study, it's a purchased fantasy. www.portland.gov/venues/moda-...

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 18/09/2026

Well, that "hope chest of money" that Mayor Cooper was counting on to fund the stadium is sitting at the end of the rainbow, so good luck with that.

What I hope my successor wrestles with mostly is thefi nancial benefi t of this and how to spend those [tax]dollars. I feel like I’m handing off a really signifi cant hopechest of money … that was created because we had thenerve to take a valueless set of parking lots and turn itinto very valuable land.
The East Bank is a prototype of how you can show upwith a vision before anything happens and then makethat work out, hopefully at very little or no cost. The goalis no cost to current taxpayers. The increased tax baseitself ends up building out the improvements there thateverybody can benefi t from.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 18/09/2026

So far, $700 million in public money has been set aside for redeveloping the East Bank, which Mayor Cooper insisted would provide a "hope chest" of money to pay for the Titans stadium.

The bridge project is the first major amendment to construction plans related to the Titans' new $2.1 billion stadium. As such, it required an official "change order" agreed to by the team and the Metro Sports Authority, which has overseen the stadium project since its inception. The body also kicked in $760 million to pay for the stadium. In the five years since then-Mayor John Cooper oriented the city toward redeveloping the East Bank, Metro coffers have also supported new utilities, a redesigned street grid and various infrastructure projects with more than $700 million in forecasted spending in last year’s Capital Improvements Budget.

In April, state lawmakers furnished the East Bank Development Authority with $300 million in surplus tax revenue accumulated in the downtown Tourism Development Zone, a mechanism designed decades ago to pay for the Music City Center. The money and authority have put state House Speaker Cameron Sexton, who sits on the EBDA, in a central decision-making role guiding the East Bank’s future. At next week’s EBDA meeting, the Titans and Metro will make a similar presentation in pursuit of a $75 million slice of that $300 million.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 17/09/2026

The main reason pro sports teams get subsidies isn't through relocation threats (Bills never threatened to go anywhere) it's because they can give access to something that elected officials value. Taxpayers bear the costs, local leaders reap the personal benefits.

Twitter post from Chrissy Casilio
@ChrissyCasilio

In honor of today’s home opener,
@GovKathyHochul
is taking a break from telling us that we’re all struggling and that she’s going to save the day by tossing us $200 bucks…

…so she can roll around on the new stadium field with a billionaire who received hundreds of millions of our tax dollars...

She gets us!

Go Bills!

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 17/09/2026

Former director of the Gateway project Thomas Chema, who insisted 🎶This One Will Be Different🎶

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 16/09/2026

"Economists" hired to do economic impact "studies."

2 panel meme of Mister Rogers drawing a picture
Panel 1: I'm not very good at it.
Panel 2: But it doesn't matter

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 16/09/2026

So, they're still trotting out the canard that the Bills had offers to move elsewhere.

Steamed hams Simpson meme.
Supernitendo Chalmers: May I see it?
Principal Skinner: No.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 15/09/2026

1) $650 million of public money → gov *should* have a say on the price. 2) The Bills did NOT threaten to move anywhere & there were no markets seeking the Bills. 3) If voters wanted this, then why not let them vote on it? A poll at the time showed voters overwhelmingly opposed.

Lewke asked Hochul if she had conversations with Bills leadership about affordability.

“Well, we don’t set the price. My job was to make sure that they remain the Buffalo Bills, that they did not leave the state and that required me to step up with state resources,” Hochul said. “When I first became governor at a time there was a great vulnerability for this region and if you listen to Terry Pegula during the ribbon-cutting back in July, he says I don’t know that we’d be here if it wasn’t for Kathy Hochul because I knew that there was a lot of pressure to build a new stadium.”

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 15/09/2026

"If you build it, they will come" ...Well, they built it, but no one came. Your reminder: sports venues do not spur surrounding development.

Seregh referred a request for comment to the Orioles. Team spokesperson Jennifer Grondahl said the ownership group engaged Seregh in 2025 “to have preliminary conversations and identify opportunities as part of an ongoing effort to help drive economic development in Baltimore City.”

Rubenstein notes in his book that Camden Yards, which opened in 1992, was built with the idea of reviving downtown Baltimore, but that hope “did not really come to fruition.”

Stadium districts, which can create new and consistent revenue streams for pro teams, have become increasingly popular across the country. Rubenstein cited other ballparks — including Boston’s Fenway Park and Chicago’s Wrigley Field — as examples of “must-visit” ballpark-adjacent neighborhoods.

“As I have said, part of my desire to buy the Orioles was to help Baltimore, and Baltimore really needed help revitalizing its downtown area — most especially the area around Camden Yards,” he writes.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 13/09/2026

The stadium is pretty empty tonight.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 12/09/2026

New study in Regional Science & Urban Economics: Who scores from hosting sports events? Local spending evidence from the EURO 2024. Surprise! Major sports events are a net fiscal loss to host cities. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

$Host cities for the EURO 2024 championship in Germany used existing stadiums and infrastructure, with targeted investments to modernize them. Associated infrastructure and sports facilities are expected to remain in intensive use beyond the event, increasing the likelihood of positive long-term returns on investment. In total, public expenditures associated with hosting amounted to approximately 333 million Euros, of which around 292 million were borne by the host cities themselves. Against this benchmark, our estimates suggest that the short-term consumer spending gains in selected tourist-related retail and service sectors are of a similar order of magnitude to the public expenditures for hosting the event. This comparison, however, conflates gross consumer spending with public revenue. From a fiscal perspective, the latter constitutes the relevant benchmark for whether hosting is self-financing for host city budgets. As we show in Appendix G, only a small fraction of the additional spending translates into tax revenue: Our estimates suggest additional VAT and business tax receipts of at most a few tens of millions of Euros, well short of the roughly 292 million Euros in costs borne by host cities. From a public budget perspective, the EURO 2024 is best understood not as a self-financing investment but as a targeted subsidy to tourist-facing sectors, funded by host-city and federal taxpayers.$

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 11/09/2026

No public stadium project has ever generated sufficient "excess revenue" that "will more than offset" the public contribution. It's literally NEVER happened before, but that's the funding model *the team" proposes, and they're just going to go with it, I guess. lims.dccouncil.gov/Hearings/hea...

CHAIRMAN PHIL MENDELSON
COMMITTEE OF THE WHOLE
ANNOUNCES A PUBLIC HEARING
on
Bill 26-769, the “Soccer Stadium Redevelopment and Maintenance Act of 2026”
on
Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:00am
Council Hearing Room 412 (Track B)
John A. Wilson Building
1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
DC Council Website (www.dccouncil.gov)
Council Chairman Phil Mendelson announces a public hearing before the Committee of the Whole
on Bill 26-769, the “Soccer Stadium Redevelopment and Maintenance Act of 2026.” The hearing will be
held at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, October 23, 2026.
The stated purpose of Bill 26-769 is to authorize the Mayor to enter into a public-private financing
agreement with DC United or its affiliates to redevelop the soccer stadium known as Audi Field through
the installation of a climate-controlling roof and the addition of more stadium seating. The envisioned
public-private financing model will include contributions from DC United and the District. DC United
predicts that the roof and additional seats will generate excess revenue to the District which will more than
offset the District’s contribution to the project. The bill also establishes the Soccer Stadium Preservation
and Improvement Fund to provide for the maintenance, repair, and capital improvement of the stadium site,
and provides tax exemptions on excess site revenue. The legislation also commits DC United and its
affliates to creating an ancillary housing development that would include affordable housing units

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 11/09/2026

This deal is so good for taxpayers that elected leaders wouldn't let their constituents vote on it. I guess only enlightened elected officials — not citizens, not economists — truly understand the economics of stadiums.

The city’s deal with the Royals is a financing and incentive agreement for a development project, not a new tax, so it would not ordinarily require voter approval. That separates the current Crown Center plan from the proposal voters rejected in 2024, which involved replacing and extending a sales tax to help cover the costs of a new Royals stadium in the Crossroads.

Organizers filed a citizen initiative petition with more than 4,500 signatures seeking to change that and require voter approval for carrying out large stadium projects with city support. The City Council did not pass their proposed ordinance themselves by the end of August, so organizers asked that it be placed on the ballot, and the council could soon formally submit the question to voters at the next available election.

The council referred the item to a special committee for legal review on Sept. 22 ahead of final council approval.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 10/09/2026

NHL actually working with a third group "north of Atlanta" 🤔

Daly said the league is in talks with a third group headed by former NHL player and current TNT hockey analyst Anson Carter, who had previously been involved with the Alpharetta bid.

"Anson still has an interest in having a franchise in Atlanta. He's kind of broken with the Alpharetta group, which he was championing before. He has indicated he has adequate financing, which he showed some evidence of, but he hasn't chosen a location," said Daly, speaking at the NHL/NHLPA player media tour in Las Vegas.

Daly said Carter's group is looking at locations north of Atlanta.

"He's committed it's going to be a better location than either Alpharetta or The Gathering," he said.

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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 10/09/2026

To be clear, the plan is to cannibalize existing tax revenue and then hope that associated economic activity will generate enough new revenue to cover the costs. It's important to note that this has NEVER happened before, ever. Not once.

TIF plan Kansas City has agreed to contribute up to $600 million to help fund the $1.9 billion stadium. The framework calls for the city to pay $90 million for infrastructure funding and $510 million in bonds. The city would be responsible for making annual payments on the bonds. The proposed TIF plan would redirect portions of various sales taxes on hotels, utilities, food and beverages, as well as a portion of the city’s earnings tax. That would generate a total of $382 million, according to the estimated projection. Those taxes are not projected to generate enough revenue to cover the city’s total bond debt.

But the plan also expects $710.3 million to be generated from a “stadium impact area” that would help cover the costs. The impact area is listed separately from other economic activity tax revenues, though it is unclear exactly how it would be drawn or how it would work.

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