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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 26m

The final number is outstanding but it seems the turnout decline in Bosnia’s general elections will be around 10-11%. If it holds, that will be the largest consecutive electoral decline in a European general election since 2000.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 23h

there are clearly well under 3 million people living in BiH today; maybe as few as 2.5 million. The actual Croat pop, in turn, is well under the 2013 number of c 500k. It may well be under 300k. And apparently the party which has most benefited from fraud in past electoral cycles is the HDZ BiH.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 23h

…and 12% of its vote in the Posavina. These are far bigger losses than those suffered by the SDA and SNSD. So, a few conclusions:

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 23h

All the major blocs lost a significant share of their raw vote but it is far and away most obvious with the HDZ. In Zenica-Doboj, the HDZ lost 47% of its vote; lost 33% of its vote in Central Bosnia; 22% of its vote in West Herzegovina; 14% of its vote in Herzegovina-Neretva…

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 23h

We will need to re-asses once the final figures are available. But looking at the cantonal results, based on some 95% of the vote, it is the HDZ BiH which appears to have suffered some of the most extensive raw vote losses due to the increased reliability and transparency of the voting process.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

With both of their parties having fared exceptionally poorly, Zeljko Komsic (DF) and Sabina Cudic (NS) deserve props for admitting their respective defeats in clear, unequivocal terms tonight. Komsic took an especially no-nonsense approach. Modeling good liberal praxis.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Partisan results aside, the new technology deployed in Bosnia's elections tonight was clearly a resounding success. Yes, some minor hiccups but by 8PM the Central Elections Commission was able to provide accurate and decisive results. Definite progress.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Alas, do not expect anyone - least of all Dodik and Covic - to take that rebuke seriously. In low turnout elections especially, non-voting is always a de facto vote for the establishment.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Still, the major story of the night remains the historically low turnout. Yes, the official figure is inaccurate but it's nevertheless clear the the majority of Bosnians simply did not vote.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I am also tempted to say it's really unclear how Izetbegovic can continue on as SDA boss after a second election in a row in which even his own party's electorate (!) said "no, not you" but he has for so long bucked the laws of political gravity that...?

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Efendic's c. 130,000+ votes for the state presidency likely cost Izetbegovic and/or Kovacevic their respective races. Will either the SDA or DF hold that against Efendic and to what extent? We don't know.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Because SDA appears to have performed strongly in both Sarajevo and Tuzla cantons, the SDA-DF-SBiH option is certainly plausible though, with SDP and the Troika out completely. However, there is one major unknown at this point.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

In the FBiH, senior SDA figures have floated both a SDA-DF-SBiH government and a grand coalition with the SDP. HDZ will probably need to figure into that either way because Schmidt's 2022 election law amendments made them a near permanent fixture of the House of Peoples, and thus FBiH government.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

In the RS assembly, SNSD seems likely to benefit enormously from low turnout, and will almost certainly end up forming government with fewer coalition partners than in 2022.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

SDA-HDZ-SNSD + SDP (?) grand coalition likeliest govt bloc in the BiH parliament tho as final numbers become clear, there may be a mathematical way to push out Dodik's SNSD. But HDZ will almost certainly seek to obstruct that because of their decades-long alliance with Dodik, so don't count on it.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The legislative results are all over the place in terms of coalition math but the SDA is again the largest party in the country, even though Izetbegovic seems to have lost his second successive run at the presidency.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Some back-of-the-napkin thoughts concerning the parliamentary dynamics following the 2026 Bosnian general elections.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Now via Al Jazeera Balkans: Central Elections Commission reports, with 80% of ballots counted, Becirovic and Cvijanovic secure re-election, HDZ's Filipovic bests Kovacevic. Your first Bosnian post-election crisis: Filipovic and Civjanovic move to issue pardon to secessionist Dodik.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Bosnia's Central Elections Commission says the turnout for tonight's general elections was just 41.48%, down fully 10% from 2022. Even if we assume the country's voter rolls are inflated (so turnout is actually higher percentage wise) this still a shocking figure.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Now @istragab.bsky.social reporting their access to a large vote dump which shows Becirovic leading Izetbegovic c. 118,000 to 110,000 votes, and Filipovic leading Kovacevic c. 69,000 to 39,000. But we still do not have final turnout figures, so unclear how many votes may be outstanding.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Early figures from the Bosnian presidency elections show Izetbegovic still with a narrow lead over incumbent Becirovic. Kovacevic leads in the Croat race, with Lucic seemingly chewing into the HDZ vote. Low turnout may be pronounced factor in latter race.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Very, very early unofficial results from Hayat TV for the Bosniak seat on the Bosnian state presidency show SDA boss Izetbegovic with a thin lead over incumbent Becirovic. But expect these results to fluctuate greatly in coming hours.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Polls in Bosnia and Herzegovina's 2026 general elections, the 10th since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, have closed, although voters still in line as of 19:00 will still be permitted to cast ballots. The first results are expected within the next hour or so.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

...an EU MEP, voting in multiple national elections and claiming that you're being 'discriminated' against in Bosnia because the public opposes the imposition of further segregationist norms?!

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This woman is an EU MEP, sitting as a member of Croatia's governing HDZ. But she spent most of her professional career as a Bosnian diplomat. And here she boasts of voting in the Bosnian elections. Look, multiple citizenships are are increasingly the norm. But when you're a public official...

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

As of 17:00 the official turnout has inched above 32% and passed the symbolically significant threshold of 1 million voters. There will be a surge of votes in the last two hours ahead of the 19:00 close. But (based on the official figures) final turnout will still likely >50%.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

...in absolute terms, turnout may actually be higher than the official count, because the overall population is smaller than what is officially claimed. Still, running behind 2022 in any case.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

One obvious fact to keep in mind: percentage wise these turnout figures are based on the 2013 census which had Bosnia's official population at 3.5 million. The country has not had a census since and it's widely known the population has slipped significantly, likely below 3 million. Meaning...

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The official count from the BiH Central Elections Commission (CIK) says less 27% of voters have cast ballots as of 15:00 local time. Polls close at 19:00. This turnout is running some 8% behind 2022, where the final figure was 51%. Low turnout will favor machine parties.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

As expected, turnout at Bosnia’s general elections is running behind the 2022 figure. There will be a rush of participation as we get closer to 19:00 local time but it is looking likely that the final figure will be below 50%. A scathing indictment of the entire establishment.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

He leaves behind with institutions and successors in place, in other words. Perhaps the greatest legacy. Hvala Edine.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A 20 year career with the national side. Its greatest ever goal scorer, who twice took this little country to the World Cup. And he leaves now not only on his own terms but having elevated a generation of young lions, already showing that they are ready and willing to follow in his giant's boots.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Some by war and genocide, others by authoritarian cruelty. Which has made passing on knowledge and experience so difficult. Each new generation has had to start anew, with few elders available to teach them. Džeko has broken that pattern.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Part of what makes Edin Džeko's farewell from the Bosnian national team tonight in Zenica so emotional is the broader context. Bosnia's history is such that generation after generation of its elites - in every segment of society - have been destroyed or expelled.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

An emotional night in Zenica. A hard fought draw between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Sweden. A come from behind equalizer by the sensational Kerim Alajbegović. And, above all, a deeply moving send off for the legendary Edin Džeko. "O Captain! my Captain!" www.klix.ba/sport/nogome...

klix.ba

Džeko otišao u legendu, Alajbegović donio vrijedan bod BiH protiv Švedske

Nogometna reprezentacija Bosne i Hercegovine remizirala je na Bilinom Polju protiv selekcije Švedske rezultatom 1:1 u okviru trećeg kola Lige nacija.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Moral issues may be contested via the ballot but voting itself is simply a mechanism for deciding who gets what, when, and how. Thus rational self-preservation demands, at least, your participation. My latest for @odgovor.bsky.social ahead of BiH's elections. odgovor.ba/article/26368

odgovor.ba

Rationality Not Morality Should Drive Voters to the Polls

Bosnian voters will head to their tenth general elections since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement on October 4. The past four years have been some of the most difficult since the war, and rare...

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Legitimately a fantastic, visceral scene in a so-so film. But this part they absolutely nailed.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This is a conversation I've been having with Western officials re: the Balkans for the better part of two decades. Ideology is real. When someone tells you, consistently that you are sub-human, and they want to exterminate every trace of you, your family, and your community: believe them.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They're not excluded from voting, they're barred from serving in key positions, including the presidency, because are reserved for Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats. That provision has been struck down by the courts as discriminatory but the relevant laws have not been amended.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

An important piece from @haaretzcom.bsky.social on how BiH's sectarian political regime continues to disenfranchise Jews, Roma, and large swathes of the country's population, despite successive ECtHR rulings mandating reform of the same in line with the ECHR. www.haaretz.com/jewish/2026-...

haaretz.com

Bosnia's Jews reckon with their place in Europe's most complex political system

Bosnia will soon vote for a tripartite presidency that excludes up to 100,000 minority citizens – including the country's small Jewish community. Local leaders say the peace deal that ended the Siege ...

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Dario's explanations of the significance of new voting technology which will be rolled out as part of these elections, and the key role of the Pod lupom Coalition in advocating for the same of the past decade, is especially significant. A YouTube link will follow shortly for those w/o X.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Second, I participated in the Center's "What’s at stake in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 2026 election?" roundtable discussion this morning. The same was moderated by Ms. Thorpe, and also featured contributions by Prof. Damir Kapidzic and Dario Jovanovic. x.com/i/broadcasts...

x.com

Atlantic Council Europe Center

LIVE | What’s at stake in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 2026 election?

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

First, Amanda Thorpe, Olivia Olson and I have published an elxn primer w/ details re: exceedingly complex feats of BiH's elxns. It is an overview of both the systemic features of the elxns, and an overview of the major political actors competing in the same. www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-seri...

atlanticcouncil.org

5 questions (and expert answers) about Bosnia and Herzegovina’s election

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 2026 election: Atlantic Council experts explain the players, voting system, and implications for the EU and NATO.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I am very pleased to have had the opportunity to assist in the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's roll out of a few pieces of important educational media related to the upcoming general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, both of which are now available.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Amid threats of an unlawful police raid of Srebrenica Memorial Center, the leadership has reduced the number of staff on site, to protect their physical safety. 2 wks ago, the whole of Europe condemned Serbia for its leaders' glorification of Mladic. Where are they today? n1info.ba/vijesti/sulj...

n1info.ba

Suljagić donio odluku: Memorijalni centar Srebrenica povlači dio zaposlenih, moguće i privremeno zatvaranje za posjete

Direktor Memorijalnog centra Srebrenica dr. Emir Suljagić donio je odluku da se tokom ove sedmice broj zaposlenih koji fizički borave u Centru svede na osoblje

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Columbia’s Jeffrey Sachs in an official visit with the Beijing and Moscow backed Serb secessionist regime in Bosnia’s RS entity, only days after this government glorified the genocidaire Mladic, and as they prepare new legal attacks on the Srebrenica Memorial Center.

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Reposted by Jasmin Mujanović

The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Oh, you’re a social critic? Gonna highlight some contradictions? Identify some hypocrisies? Investigate—investigate some curiosities? Make some observations trenchantly? Point out possible reforms? Speak truth to power? Be a voice for the voiceless? I’m sure it’ll make a big difference

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

BiH’s Constitutional Court has ordered the SNSD regime in Banja Luka to scrap its lobbying contract with Dickens & Madson because the same explicitly directs the firm to solicit support for the secession of the RS entity. A limited but important ruling. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/...

klix.ba

Ustavni sud BiH naredio Vladi RS-a da obustavi isplatu za lobistički ugovor u kojem se traži "nezavisnost RS-a"

Ustavni sud Bosne i Hercegovine je donio odluku o ustavnosti isplate za lobističke ugovore u kojima se kao cilj navodi "nezavisnost Republike Srpske" i drugi po...

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

In sum, a 2018-2022 style cabinet, featuring the RS opposition plus perhaps the ‘Croat Five’ would certainly be an improvement over what has been one of the worst mandates in Bosnia’s postwar history.

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Jasmin Mujanović @jasminmuj.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Among Bosniak electorate, hope for a coalescing of the vote. Everyone will have their own preferences how that vote should come together - twd the SDA, Troika, DF/SBiH - but as long as Ramo Isak-PDA style parties collapse, you’ll almost inevitably have more stable and transparent governance.

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