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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Jan. 6 Voter Turnout, 2016-2024 Notes: Data exclude 19 deceased voters. Arrested/Not in Prison includes defendants never in prison and those who completed prison term prior to Nov. 2024. Imprisoned voters either were released early or voted early, or are from DC, ME, VT (no felony restrictions).

2016-2024 Voter Turnout by January 6 Participation, Arrest, Prison Status in Nov. 2024 in 23 States with Available Data (Rugh and Felin-Chavez 2025)

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Sources: @jan6thdata.bsky.social (Rugh & Felin-Chavez 2025 using FBI data, official state voter files), UF Election Lab ( @electproject.bsky.social McDonald 2025). 2016-2024 panel of voter history states: AK, AZ, CT, DC, FL, GA, ID, KS, LA, MA, MD, ME, NC, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, TX, VT, WA, WV.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

2016-2024 trend is key: Compared to the baseline of 2016, Trump's most devoted, arrested J6 supporters willing to commit crimes and convicted of committing serious felonies: +6 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. J6ers not arrested +13 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. US eligible voters 3/

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Using a difference-in-difference approach, comparing 2024 turnout with differences in 2020, we find that the net effect of J6 arrest was modest, -2.5 pts for 2020-2024 vs. J6ers not arrested. For 2016-2024, J6er arrest turnout up +17 vs. +11 for J6er not arrested, net diff-in-diff = UP +6 pts 2/

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

582 arrested J6 defendants eligible to vote in 2024 turned out at higher rate than US voters: 69% v. 64% = +5 These 582 arrested J6 eligible voters were no less likely to vote than 446 rioters never arrested: diff = -0.1, or arrest effect = 0 Turnout diff. for 203 J6ers in prison: -58 pts 1/

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

12 non-citizens charged in #Jan6 attack from: Vietnam China Brazil DR Congo Georgia Iran Mexico Taiwan One previously detained by ICE, one student visa, one an asylee. h/t @emptywheel.bsky.social And one worked for the "biggest Russian speaking security...agency" in the US h/t @ryanjreilly.com

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

On this #internationalwomensday it is worth remembering how overwhelmingly male the mob on #January6th was - 87% men by arrests - more male than the US Military, Senate, State Legislatures, or current Cabinet. Only Federal prisoners and Fortune 500 CEOs are more male-dominated, and not by much.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

Consider NYC, largest city in USA: Of 19 arrested J6ers from New York City: 89% (17/19) are white (Only 31% of NYC residents are white) 15/19 (79%) live in majority-white neighborhoods in a city that is, again, only 31% white 1 lived in a 100% all-white neighborhood, in Brooklyn 0 from the Bronx

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

One of the most stunning social facts is how racially segregated are the neighborhoods of arrested J6ers. Take New York state 93/97 J6ers are white (96% vs. 52% of NYS pop.) 90% lived in 50%+ white neighborhoods 41% lived in 90%+ white areas Typical J6er neighborhood was 86% white per 2020 census

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

All 61 counties pop. 900K with a J6er listed below. For the record, as far as we recall, Hartford County CT (pop. 897K) is the most populous US county without an *arrested J6er* (no doubt someone not arrested from there was in DC on J6), which is notable, since it is within driving distance to DC.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

Pinellas County FL (St. Petersburg-Clearwater) was home to the most J6ers arrested per 1M pop. (15.64) of any county >900,000 pop. by far. Other faraway populous counties in the top 10: Denton TX, Pierce WA, Hillsborough FL (also Tampa Bay), Orange CA. Tampa Bay an unmistakable J6er epicenter.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

20 Asian Americans were arrested in the Jan 6 attack: 40% Vietnamese (vs. 10% of US Asian pop.) 25% Chinese (vs. 23%) 15% Indian (vs. 23%) 5% Filipino (vs. 16%) 5% Korean (vs. 8%) 5% Taiwanese (vs. 1%) 0% Japanese (vs. 4%) 0% Cambodian, Hmong, Lao (vs. 4%) US Asian pop. via @aapidata.bsky.social

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

@prripoll.bsky.social report documents a strong correlation between support for Christian Nationalism and (1) state-level Trump 2024 vote share and, (2) disturbingly, agreement that political violence like #January6 may be justified. www.prri.org/research/chr...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

At some point, those who oppose Trump and the #January6 pardons need to run non-stop on the message that he has pardoned hundreds with other serious criminal convictions, including so many abusers who assault women and children. Not only morally wrong, but something most voters still agree is wrong.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Brian Driscoll, the acting director of the F.B.I., has become an improbable symbol of quiet resistance toward the Justice Department’s campaign to single out F.B.I. employees who investigated the Jan. 6 riot.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

We link to this specific news story as it is one of few to include the crucial context that Hernandez self-destructively drove while intoxicated on *anniversary of J6*: she may have tragically grasped how wrong #January6th attack was. Her wrestle with the truth that night proved fatal and fateful.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

It is likely an order of magnitude (>10X) higher for J6ers, i.e., 40%+ of convicted Jan. 6 defendants sentenced to prison vs. 4% max. of undocumented immigrants. In this study, for example, criminal conviction rate is <2% for unauthorized immigrants in Texas, 2013-2022. www.cato.org/policy-analy...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 25/01/2025

One stumbling block to prior work on the origins of 1582 #January6 criminal defendants is the use of county of arrest. Our forthcoming research uses precise census tract location instead. As shown, >50% of defendants did NOT live in the city listed on their arrest warrant (often FBI office city).

Location of January 6 Defendant Arrest vs. State, County, and City of Residence (Rugh and Felin Chavez 2025)

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Judge Amy Berman Jackson, 23 January 2025. For the record: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

"No stroke of a pen and no proclamation can alter the facts of what took place on January 6... When others in the public eye are not willing to risk their own power or popularity by calling out lies when they hear them, the records in this courthouse will be available to those who seek the truth."

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

AND NOW ALSO Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is certainly no stranger to speaking truth to power, dismisses a J6 case *without prejudice* Hat tip to @sfoguj.bsky.social storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Judge Beryl Howell final orders to dismiss J6 cases, *without* prejudice: #NicholasDecarlo #Insider1272 #NickOchs #Insider1456 storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

And now Judge Beryl Howell has devoted four pages to explain granting a motion to dismiss J6 cases, *without* prejudice ("no factual basis," she asserts, for dismissal): storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Judge Kollar-Kotelly (2/2): videos, transcripts of trials, jury verdicts, and judicial opinions analyzing and recounting the evidence through a neutral lens. Those records are immutable and represent the truth, no matter how the events of January 6 are described by those charged or their allies." ❗

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Judge Kollar-Kotelly: "Dismissal of charges, pardons after convictions, and commutations of sentences will not change the truth of what happened on January 6, 2021. What occurred that day is preserved for the future through thousands of contemporaneous... storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

And the final-for-now MAP of 1,581 #Jan6 criminal defendants per 1M pop. by US House Districts as of Jan. 2021 (117th Congress), with then-House "Freedom Caucus" (HFC) member districts and rate of J6ers per 1M noted (7.49 per 1M in HFC districts vs. 4.77 per 1M for USA).

January 6th Defendants per 1M by 2021 U.S. House District

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

🗺️Unless/until the final 8 existing #January6 cases are unsealed/made public where defendants were already charged as of last Friday, here is the FINAL MAP of 1,581 currently charged, nearly-all-pardoned 1,581 defendants, by state of residence in Jan 2021. Top 5, by J6ers per 1M: VA, ME, PA, MD, MT

FINAL MAP: January 6 Defendants per 1 Million Pop. by U.S. State

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

110 from Pennsylvania are charged in the #January6 attack 4th most of any state after FL (148), TX (120), CA (112) PA-10 (Scott Perry-R) is home to the most arrested J6 criminal defendants (18) of any US House District The last PA resident arrested was back in September 2024...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

97 people living in New York state in 2021 are charged in the #January6 attack, 4.8 per 1M ⚪96% are white (vs. 52% of NYS pop.) 🟡90% from majority-white neighborhoods 🟠Half from 86%-100% white neighborhoods 🏘️3 from 100% white neighborhoods, in Brooklyn, Haines Falls, and Strykersville.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

212 women are charged in the #January6 attack 13% of 1,581 charged 92% are white (vs. 58% of US pop. in 2020) 3% are Hispanic/Latina (vs. 19%) 0.5% are Black, just 1 defendant (vs. 13%) 2% are Asian American (vs. 6%) 1% other races (vs. 4%)

212 women are charged in the #January6 attack
13% of 1,581 charged

92% are white (vs. 58% of US pop. in 2020)
3% are Hispanic/Latina (vs. 19%)
0.5% are Black (vs. 13%)
2% are Asian American (vs. 6%)
1% other races (vs. 4%)

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

212 women are charged in the #January6 attack 13% of 1,581 charged 54% came with a spouse, partner, or family member 31% came with a friend or group of people 15% came alone

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

1,123 #January6 defendants (71%) sentenced so far 714 (45%) sentenced to prison (from 3 days up to 22 years) 524 (33%) pleaded guilty 15 avg. months in prison $6,192 avg. fines & restitution 190 (12%) convicted by trial 44 avg. months in prison $10.493 avg. fines & restitution

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

1,581 charged in the #January6 attack Percent of defendants who are men by race/ethnicity Asian: 75% men (15/20) Black: 96% men (24/25) Hispanic: 91% men (75/82) White: 86% men (1241/1437) All Others: 82% men (14/17) TOTAL: 87% men (1369/1581)

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

1,581 charged in the #January6 attack by 5-region classification: 1) Nearby (DC-MD-VA-WV-PA-DE-NJ): 317=7.81 per 1M 2) South (rest of region) 525=4.85 per 1M 3) Midwest 330=4.78 per 1M 4) Northeast (beyond PA, NJ) 151=4.30 per 1M 5) West (note 72% flew to DC) 258=3.28 per 1M 1,581=4.77 per 1M

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

1,581 #January6 defendants per 1M by FBI Field Office Top 10 (1) Richmond VA (2) Norfolk VA (3) Pittsburgh PA-WV (4) Philadelphia PA-NJ (5) Tampa FL (6) Washington DC-VA (7) Cincinnati OH (8) Baltimore MD-DE (9) Louisville KY (10) Columbia SC ... (14) Kansas City KS-MO (highest west of Miss. River)

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

🗺️ MAP we haven't updated for a long time 1,581 #Jan6 defendants per 1M by FBI Field Office Jurisdiction Top 5 offices ranked by J6ers charged per 1M pop. are (1) Richmond VA, (2) Norfolk VA, (3) Pittsburgh PA-WV, (4) Philadelphia PA-NJ, and faraway (5) Tampa FL, which stands out in the map below.

1,581 January 6th Criminal Defendants per Million by FBI Field Office Jurisdiction

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

UPDATED data re. #January6 #Unpardonables 1) 350+ convicted J6 defendants still in prison on Monday- we estimate all committed serious felony offenses (assault, conspiracy, property crimes). 2) 350+ above = 22% of those charged, while 50% will be out or never in prison, and 28% not yet sentenced.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

1,581 charged in the #January6 attack ⚪711 in 2021 🔵236 in 2022 🔴306 in 2023 🟡323 in 2024 🟢5 in 2025 YTD

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

1,581 people charged in publicly unsealed cases for federal crimes committed on January 6, 2021 99% felony/illegal entry 91% white, non-Hispanic 87% men 80% pleaded guilty/convicted 75% Republican/far-right voters 71% sentenced 16% military veterans 12 guilty of seditious conspiracy 0.1% acquitted

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

Note: There are at least 8 more #January6 cases likely to be unsealed or arrests still to be made DOJ public count on 1/6/2024 = 1,583 Post-1/6/2024 charged AND arrested = +6 (1,589) Publicly unsealed, charged/arrested = 1,581 Charged, NOT YET unsealed/arrested = 8 www.justice.gov/usao-dc/48-m...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Remember inscription on @thejan6plaque.bsky.social: ON BEHALF OF A GRATEFUL CONGRESS, THIS PLAQUE HONORS THE EXTRAORDINARY INDIVIDUALS WHO BRAVELY PROTECTED AND DEFENDED THIS SYMBOL OF DEMOCRACY ON JANUARY 6, 2021. THEIR HEROISM WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN. #HangTheJan6Plaque #NeverForget #January6th

THIS PLAQUE HONORS THE EXTRAORDINARY INDIVIDUALS
WHO BRAVELY PROTECTED AND DEFENDED
THIS SYMBOL OF DEMOCRACY ON JANUARY 6, 2021.
THEIR HEROISM WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

While 82 Hispanic #January6 defendants arrested live in neighborhoods where the local Hispanic population is just as Mexican as the US Hispanic pop. (58% vs 58%), their neighborhoods are less Puerto Rican, far more Cuban: 🔵Puerto Rican (7% for J6ers vs 14%)👀 🔴Cuban (15% vs 4%)👀 🟢Dominican (1% vs 3%)

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

#January6 defendants per 1M pop. by rural/suburban/urban divide shows J6ers arrested come overwhelmingly (71%) from *the SUBURBS* 🌄Rural/small town 211 J6ers=4.59 per 1M 🏘️Suburban/metro 1,116=5.37 🌆Central city of metro 254=3.30 USA total 1,581=4.77 Metro areas are dark green in US census map here

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

1,581 people charged in the publicly unsealed cases for federal crimes committed in the #January6 attack 🔴1,117 (71%) sentenced 🟠132 (8%) convicted, await sentencing 🟢22 (1%) deceased, fugitive, dismissed, acquitted ⚫310 (20%) charged/arrested, pending prosecution Snapshot as of 16 January 2025

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

🚨 #BigGreyShover #AFO ARRESTED James Edward Porter of Garland County AR 1,581 charged in the #January6 attack=4.77 per 1M Just 8 from Arkansas=2.66 per 1M (40th/50 states) 3rd AFO arrest announced today h/t @sfoguj.bsky.social @corycullington.com

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

*Source: www.redfin.com/news/million...

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

FIRST J6ER FROM SAN FRANCISCO has been arrested: Frank Peter Molinari Giorgi Jr #SunshineBeanie #FBI327AFO aka #AshGrabber #FBI380AFO 🥉112th from CA, 3rd after FL 148, TX 120 2.83 per 1M, 83% white, 85% men 🏠85th defendant to own a home worth >$1M (9% of J6er homeowners vs 6% of US homes in 2021)*

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Jan6thData @jan6thdata.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

82 Hispanic Americans now charged in the #January6 attack are NOT a random sample of US Hispanic pop. 🔴91% men 🔴4.7X more likely to be a veteran 🔴3.6X GOP/Far-right party (0% registered Dem) 🔴3.1X to have a non-Hispanic white parent 🔴2.8X to have supported Trump in 2020 🔴1.9X to live in Florida

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