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Funny how we were worried Trump would lift Russia sanctions, and now it was Macron.

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It may be to Paris, but sanctions were not meant to be a bargaining chip for deals with individuals.

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This is just the sanctions against persons. The big economic sanctions still have to be prolonged in 2027.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 17/09/2026

The EU completely sold out its principles today. The symbolic effect of lifting sanctions on Usmanov and Fridman is a catastrophy. There is hardly any justification for this. Who's next? Is this the beginning of EU sanctions collapsing?

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Putin has de facto expropriated the Russian subsidiaries of Nestlé and Auchan today. Their assets are now under the control of an obscure Russian business structure "LEV Management". A few months ago, "LEV Management" was for sale as an empty company shell.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 17/09/2026

While Russian diesel prices are slowly falling.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 17/09/2026

Russian gasoline prices keep rising.

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Reposted by Janis Kluge

Alex Panchenko @alexpanchenko2.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

"Russian soldiers receive millions of rubles when signing contracts for the war. This injection of cash is transforming the social fabric of remote Russian cities" - @wsj.com economics of The War story featuring @jakluge.de .

youtu.be

How Putin’s War Pay Is Creating New Wealth in Russia | WSJ

YouTube video by The Wall Street Journal

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And the queues are a little shorter.

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A few more stations are open.

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Looks like a little bit more gasoline is available in St Petersburg today.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 13/09/2026

It didn't make sense commercially to export gasoline, so Russian oil companies focused on diesel for foreign markets. Russian diesel capacity is roughly 2x Russian consumption, gasoline closer to 1.1-1.2x.

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The situation in Nizhny Novgorod is not quite as bad as in the first fuel crisis in July, but there is still a shortage. And again - diesel is apparently not the main issue anymore.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 13/09/2026

There is enough diesel, but not enough gasoline.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 13/09/2026

revious gasoline shortage in July with the situation in September. Queues are longer this time, according to Gdebenz.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 11/09/2026

St. Petersburg gasoline update.

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Reposted by Janis Kluge

Russian recruitment roundup, September 2026

Russian recruitment was close to 1,000 per day in August. Regional budgets suggest that Russia recruited ~234,000 soldiers this year, 10% less than last year, while sign-on bonuses continue to rise and coercive recruitment practices spread across the country. janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-re...

janiskluge.substack.com

Russian recruitment remained close to 1,000 per day in August, according to regional budget data. To cover the cost, regions are increasingly cutting other spending, including regional coffin money.

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There may be signs of stabilization in recent days. Again, gasoline availability is the problem, not diesel.

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This is the situation at gas stations in Nizhny Novgorod, which is supplied by the Kstovo refinery. Kstovo was attacked on August 26. Since then, the gasoline crisis has returned to the city.

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Diesel supplies are not affected as severely yet, but gasoline is starting to run short in the city.

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The Kirishi refinery, a major supplier of gasoline to St. Petersburg, was attacked by Ukraine on August 29–30. A few days later, queues began forming at gas stations across the city, and the share of open gas stations in St. Petersburg fell.

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Russian recruitment roundup, September 2026

janiskluge.substack.com

Russian recruitment remained close to 1,000 per day in August, according to regional budget data. To cover the cost, regions are increasingly cutting other spending, including regional coffin money.

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The situation has improved in some cities, while long queues remain in others. For some reason, it is currently worsening in St. Petersburg and in Nizhny Novgorod.

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Lots of gas stations in Russia sell only diesel.

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Diesel prices stabilized on a high level.

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 05/09/2026

Russian gasoline prices reached a new all-time high last week, according to Rosstat.

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Reposted by Janis Kluge

"At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell a more troubling story for the Kremlin." - my short analysis of Russian state finances: www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...

Russian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plans

At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...

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Reposted by Janis Kluge

Sabine Fischer @sabfis3.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Want to learn more about the economic and fiscal challenges the Kremlin is facing because of its war of aggression against Ukraine? Check out my colleague @jakluge.de‘s analysis and dashboard on trends in Russia‘s state budget. Super illuminating! www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Russian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plans

At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...

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Reposted by Janis Kluge

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 04/09/2026

Vor der Duma-Wahl stehen Präsident Putin & die Kremlpartei Einiges Russland vor großen Herausforderungen: Ukrainische Drohnen & Raketen treffen Ziele weit im Hinterland, die Wirtschaft schwächelt, & die Stimmung im Land verschlechtert sich, so @sabfis3.bsky.social: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Noch eine Scheinwahl in Russland

Die bevorstehende Abstimmung über die neunte Staatsduma

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 05/09/2026

Volgograd cancelled its youth festival "ThreeFour" this year. It was already fully organized and prepared, but the governor said the money was needed to pay sign-on bonuses for contract soldiers. Sign-on bonuses were increased to 3.4 million rubles. v1.ru/text/gorod/2...

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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 05/09/2026

Russian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plans

At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...

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Reposted by Janis Kluge

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 04/09/2026

At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell a more troubling story for the Kremlin, adding to doubts about how long Russia can sustain the war, writes @jakluge.de. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Russian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plans

At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...

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If you are curious about the latest details of Russian military spending, I recommend the interactive SWP Russian Budget Monitor. You can browse the different components of military spending, view how each of them has changed over time in charts & export all data: www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...

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Compared to budget revenue, Russian military spending looks even more extreme: It ate up a whopping 57% of Russian budget revenues in the first half of 2026. Link: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

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In 2026, military spending accounts for 44% of all Russian federal budget spending, a new all-time high. Link to the data (SWP Russian Budget Monitor): data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

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In 2026, classified spending in Russia's federal budget is out of control. The full-year plan was 11.6 trillion rubles. After six months, spending already exceeded 8.4 trillion. Source: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

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Here is the planned military budget for each of the last years (relative to GDP) - this is not actual data, but original budget laws. Actual military spending in 2025 was close to 8% of GDP. There was a big reduction planned in 2026: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

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In billion rubles: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

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Data is from the SWP Russian Budget Monitor. Military spending / full-year GDP: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

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Russian military spending continues to soar: In the first half of 2026 it was 10.7 trillion rubles, or 10.5% of H1 GDP. Relative to the projected full-year GDP, military spending currently stands at 4.7%. The full-year plan in the budget law was 6.4% of GDP. data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

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Relative to GDP, the long-term decline of oil and gas revenues becomes even more visible.

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