iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

There may be signs of stabilization in recent days. Again, gasoline availability is the problem, not diesel.

0300

This is the situation at gas stations in Nizhny Novgorod, which is supplied by the Kstovo refinery. Kstovo was attacked on August 26. Since then, the gasoline crisis has returned to the city.

1516

Diesel supplies are not affected as severely yet, but gasoline is starting to run short in the city.

0361

The Kirishi refinery, a major supplier of gasoline to St. Petersburg, was attacked by Ukraine on August 29–30. A few days later, queues began forming at gas stations across the city, and the share of open gas stations in St. Petersburg fell.

1538

The situation has improved in some cities, while long queues remain in others. For some reason, it is currently worsening in St. Petersburg and in Nizhny Novgorod.

0444

Lots of gas stations in Russia sell only diesel.

0527

Diesel prices stabilized on a high level.

2401

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 05/09/2026

Russian gasoline prices reached a new all-time high last week, according to Rosstat.

413024

Volgograd cancelled its youth festival "ThreeFour" this year. It was already fully organized and prepared, but the governor said the money was needed to pay sign-on bonuses for contract soldiers. Sign-on bonuses were increased to 3.4 million rubles. v1.ru/text/gorod/2...

35113

If you are curious about the latest details of Russian military spending, I recommend the interactive SWP Russian Budget Monitor. You can browse the different components of military spending, view how each of them has changed over time in charts & export all data: www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...

03610

Compared to budget revenue, Russian military spending looks even more extreme: It ate up a whopping 57% of Russian budget revenues in the first half of 2026. Link: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

1385

In 2026, military spending accounts for 44% of all Russian federal budget spending, a new all-time high. Link to the data (SWP Russian Budget Monitor): data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

16417

In 2026, classified spending in Russia's federal budget is out of control. The full-year plan was 11.6 trillion rubles. After six months, spending already exceeded 8.4 trillion. Source: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

0241

Here is the planned military budget for each of the last years (relative to GDP) - this is not actual data, but original budget laws. Actual military spending in 2025 was close to 8% of GDP. There was a big reduction planned in 2026: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

1190

In billion rubles: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

1140

Data is from the SWP Russian Budget Monitor. Military spending / full-year GDP: data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

1140

Russian military spending continues to soar: In the first half of 2026 it was 10.7 trillion rubles, or 10.5% of H1 GDP. Relative to the projected full-year GDP, military spending currently stands at 4.7%. The full-year plan in the budget law was 6.4% of GDP. data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...

2334

Relative to GDP, the long-term decline of oil and gas revenues becomes even more visible.

1341

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 02/09/2026

Russian oil & gas revenues fell in August. The Iran war led to a small revenue bump this year, but no windfall. Domestic gasoline subsidies ate up a big portion of the price effect.

16512

What is Putin's biggest problem at the moment? In my view, it is how people inside and outside the regime are thinking about the future. After the last few months, that future looks a lot darker and more dangerous. Commenting for the New York Times: www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/w...

1549

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 02/09/2026

🎥 New WSJ mini documentary "Inside Russia's War Boomtowns" by Milan Czerny is out! It shows how the influx of war money is changing poor Russian regions such as Buryatiya. Full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifVQ...

24510

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 27/08/2026

Russia's federal budget execution currently reports a deficit of 3.8% of GDP. The plan for the full year was 1.6% of GDP.

46515

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 26/08/2026

Latest price data confirms: Gasoline shortages in Russia are worsening again, while the diesel situation is a bit more stable.

17015

There is the same pattern in Rosstat prices: While diesel prices continue to moderate, gasoline prices are increasing again.

0491

So the fundamentals of Russian refining output become visible. Compare this with data from the previous shortages in July: It affected both diesel and gasoline. Distribution and logistics played a big role then. Also, the diesel export ban came late.

1481

Russia's new fuel crisis is mainly a gasoline crisis, not a diesel crisis. This makes sense: Russia is producing much more diesel than it consumes, while its gasoline production is below demand at the moment. In more recent data, many gas stations only have diesel in stock.

29619

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 21/08/2026

Levada poll: The share of Russians who say the political situation is calm or positive is decreasing lately, the share of Russians who say it's tense or even critical is rising. Source: www.levada.ru/2026/08/14/o...

0513

Gasoline tracker is live again... let's see how the next days develop. The situation has apparently worsened again.

1528

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 21/08/2026

Die Preise für Eigentumswohnungen in Berlin-Kreuzberg sind seit 2021 inflationsbereinigt um 20% gefallen.

3310

There is one interesting (preliminary) data point, however, and that is August vs. July 2026 (not included in the detailed time series yet): It says that M1 (cash and transferable ruble deposits together) fell by 0.4% in July, while rubles cash in circulation rose by 2.9%.

1303

If you order the data the other way around, you can recognize the slight decline in time deposits/savings accounts, but transferable deposits are still larger than cash (both increased by roughly the same percentage). Source: cbr.ru/vfs/eng/stat...

1190

Here is another chart on Russian household assets (excluding businesses). Both transferable deposits and ruble cash increased from a year ago.

2396

There is one notable change: Russian households and businesses are preferring liquid assets over savings accounts and time deposits (uptick in dashed line). This leads to an increase of cash AND transferable deposits. The main reason: falling interest rates.

2392