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Jacob Stokes

@jacobstokes.bsky.social
1.2K followers 559 following 96 posts

Senior Fellow & Deputy Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Previously White House & U.S. Congress. China, East Asian security, US foreign policy. Views mine.

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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
One of the key questions of the new nuclear age is how big China's nuclear arsenal will ultimately grow. I game out potential endpoints in a new piece. www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/0...
defenseone.com
How big will China’s nuclear arsenal get?
No one knows, but we can game out potential endpoints of Beijing’s buildup.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
"The most dangerous occupation in Washington these days is being an expert." A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...
nytimes.com
It’s a Really Bad Time to Be an Expert in Washington
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
"it was not clear why the information about the DF-5, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was made public." www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
scmp.com
Chinese state media releases key details about DF-5 nuclear weapons
Rare disclosure may signal that the country has ‘far more powerful capabilities it has not shown the world’, according to one analyst.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
I'm delighted to share my newest @cnas.bsky.social report: Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency
A contingency across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to reshape the Indo-Pacific and even global security environment.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Russia says Putin will travel to China in August apnews.com/article/russ...
apnews.com
Russia says Putin will travel to China in August
The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September.
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Lili Pike @lilipike.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
“Slowing down China’s military modernization is so important that we should take some risks and incur some costs, especially in those areas where China might be using our capabilities … particularly these high-end chips,” @jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.
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Senate Press Gallery @senatepress.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
By a vote of 67 to 29, the #Senate confirmed David Perdue to be the Ambassador to the People's Republic of China. Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse. Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.
dailypress.senate.gov
Home - U.S. Senate Daily Press
Senate ScheduleThe Senate began a series of two votes at 11:29 a.m. There are two votes at 2:15 p.m. and further votes expected. Senate Hearings & Meetings
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Schrödinger's leaders call between Trump and Xi. Apparently, it happened and didn't happen simultaneously. www.ft.com/content/0192...
ft.com
Donald Trump claims to have received call from Xi Jinping and to have cut ‘200 deals’ on trade
Beijing says there are no active talks and Washington should ‘stop creating confusion’
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
"Mr. Trump is the latest commander in chief to arrive at the White House with an eye toward China, only to be diverted." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Pete Hegseth Blunders Into His Forever War (Gift Article)
The operation in Yemen has sent the Trump administration into an exorbitant, potentially escalatory spiral.
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The Center for a New American Security @cnas.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by @klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people. www.cnas.org/press/press-...
cnas.org
CNAS Launches New National Security Human Capital Program to Safeguard America’s Warfighting Edge
Military personnel, political appointees, and civil servants meet the demands of the National Security Strategy by providing the nation with the…
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China www.axios.com/2025/04/16/t...
axios.com
Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China
"What the f**k is Elon doing there? Make sure he doesn't go," Trump said.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance Extensively reported Reuters piece. www.reuters.com/markets/how-...
reuters.com
How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance
The combative approach marked a hard turn for Beijing, which had tried to avoid a spiraling trade war.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
wsj.com
Exclusive | In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks
A senior Chinese official linked intrusions to escalating U.S. support for Taiwan.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Not huge numbers, but still interesting and symbolically meaningful (if confirmed). kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...
kyivindependent.com
Over 160 Chinese nationals fight for Russia, obtained documents show
The documents, obtained by the Kyiv Independent, list the names, personal data, brigades, and ranks of Chinese nationals fighting for Russia.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
I was pleased to share some thoughts with @afpfr.bsky.social on how Trump's tariffs will shape broader US-China relations and Beijing's approach to the rest of the world. www.france24.com/en/live-news...
france24.com
Trump tariffs offer opportunity for China
In unleashing global tariffs, President Donald Trump has vowed to remake the world to benefit US workers. One beneficiary could be the country he sees as the primary adversary -- China.
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James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
For some other time: issues where people, including me, have disagreed w Larry Summers. For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...
Quote about universities standing up. "Each act of capitulation makes the next one more likely."Op-ed text about Harvard and other rich institutions. "If they do not or cannot resist the arbitrary application of government power, who else can?"Op-ed saying that the resources of rich universities are not there just to be admired.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
"Sources said those fired include Brian Walsh, senior director for intelligence; Thomas Boodry, senior director for legislative affairs; and David Feith, another senior director." Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...
cbsnews.com
Trump National Security Council staffers purged, U.S. officials say
One source said the firings come after Laura Loomer presented President Trump with opposition research on NSC staffers she views as neoconservatives or not sufficiently loyal to him.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
"the source familiar said they were 'being labeled as an anti-neocon move.'" www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...
axios.com
Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit
A source described the firings as an anti-neocon "bloodbath"
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
The US has sanctioned a handful of police, national security and government figures in Hong Kong, for actions that "threaten to further erode the autonomy of Hong Kong" www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...
state.gov
U.S. Sanctions Six Individuals for Undermining Hong Kong’s Autonomy - United States Department of State
Beijing and Hong Kong officials have used Hong Kong national security laws extraterritorially to intimidate, silence, and harass 19 pro-democracy activists who were forced to flee overseas, including ...
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Also, post-2016 Abe did plenty of outreach to China of his own.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
washingtonpost.com
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China
Four Taiwanese soldiers have been jailed for passing information to China in a case that analysts say shows the extent of Beijing’s infiltration of Taipei.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
"A review committee said the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence and another company, the Beijing Innovation Wisdom Technology Co. were judged to have developed large AI models and advanced computer chips for military purposes." apnews.com/article/chin...
apnews.com
US adds Chinese tech firms to its export control list, says they sought US knowhow for military use
The U.S. has added dozens of companies to its export control, including more than 50 based in China that it says sought advanced knowhow in supercomputing, artificial intelligence and quantum technolo...
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China www.propublica.org/article/elon...
propublica.org
How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China
As a U.S. military contractor, SpaceX sees allowing Chinese ownership as fraught. But it will allow the investment if it comes through secrecy hubs like the Cayman Islands, court records say. “It is c...
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community: "Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests." www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
dni.gov
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
👇
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Pentagon changed course for Musk visit after report about him viewing China war plans: Officials abcnews.go.com/Politics/tru...
abcnews.go.com
Pentagon changed course for Musk visit after report about him viewing China war plans: Officials
A U.S. official had told ABC News that Musk was expected to attend a meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff that, among its topics, would touch on China.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
My newest CNAS report: Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses I identify 3 lenses through which to view how Beijing makes decisions related to nukes: leadership, weapons systems & military organizations, & official policies & doctrine. www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making
China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Donald Trump says China’s Xi Jinping to visit the US in ‘not too distant future’ www.ft.com/content/a0f0...
ft.com
Donald Trump says China’s Xi Jinping to visit the US in ‘not too distant future’
Hint at future summit comes amid escalating trade conflict between Washington and Beijing
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Missed this from a @wsj.com story back in October: "At one point, Putin asked the billionaire [Musk] to avoid activating his Starlink satellite internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, said two people briefed on the request." www.wsj.com/world/russia...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin
Regular contacts between world’s richest man and America’s chief antagonist raise security concerns. Topics include geopolitics, business and personal matters.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
First rule of Acheson lines is don't draw Acheson lines. asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Tr...
asia.nikkei.com
Will Trump defend Taiwan? U.S. defense perimeter appears to shrink
Defense policy pick claims cost of island's defense outweighs benefits
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Dexter Tiff Roberts @dtiffroberts.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
As I've said before, Xi's oft-quoted line that the "East is rising and the West declining" gets more real every day; the best part for Beijing: they can just sit back and watch Washington hamstring itself again and again and again... www.nytimes.com/2025/03/06/u...
nytimes.com
State Dept. Plans to Close Diplomatic Missions and Fire Employees Overseas (Gift Article)
American officials, including in the C.I.A., are concerned about mass closures hampering national security work. And China has overtaken the United States in global diplomatic footprint.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
"Speaking on CNBC, Bessent said Trump was 'confident that President Xi will not make that move during his presidency.'" www.ft.com/content/3f9b...
ft.com
Donald Trump ‘confident’ China will not invade Taiwan during his presidency, Scott Bessent says
Treasury secretary’s remarks come as Taipei has become nervous about shifting US stance on Ukraine
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Nahal Toosi @nahaltoosi.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Trump barely mentioned China last night. I can’t stop thinking about that.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Trump putting down an analytical marker.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Hard to say whether this strengthens or weakens Taiwan's "silicon shield"--at least as it plays out in Trump's mind. www.axios.com/2025/03/03/t...
axios.com
TSMC to invest additional $100 billion in U.S. chips manufacturing
TSMC will expand its existing Arizona operation.
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Ezra Levin ❌👑 @ezralevin.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
In a world of JDs, be a Zelensky.
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Sense Hofstede @sensehofstede.nl · 27/02/2025
China’s defence ministry says work on discussions with the US military are in their early stages, a development that could lead to an easing of tensions spurred by Beijing ramping up naval activity – Bloomberg
bloomberg.com
China Says Plans for Talks With US Military Are in the Works
China said efforts to facilitate talks with the US military are in their early stages, a development that could lead to an easing of tensions spurred by Beijing’s recent ramping up of naval activity.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
U.S. Foreign-Aid Halt Is Making Scrutiny of China Even Harder www.wsj.com/world/china/...
wsj.com
U.S. Foreign-Aid Halt Is Making Scrutiny of China Even Harder
A funding freeze is rocking nonprofits that collected increasingly scarce information in a country that Trump has deemed a competitor.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Glad to contribute some thoughts to this @austinramzy.bsky.social story in the @wsj.com on China-Russia military interactions. www.wsj.com/world/russia...
wsj.com
See How Xi and Putin Are Ramping Up Joint Military Drills
China and Russia, America’s top two global adversaries, are working together as never before, probing the defenses of the U.S. and its allies.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
In my newest CNAS report, we explain how AI & nukes intersect & what to do about it amid rivalry w/ China & Russia. Co-authored w/ Colin Kahl, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, & @nlokker.bsky.social. www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
"The Chinese offer, notably, envisions a U.S.-Russian summit without the involvement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky" www.wsj.com/world/china-...
wsj.com
Exclusive | China Tries to Play the Role of Peacemaker in Ukraine
The U.S. and Europe would view Beijing’s proposal skeptically given its close ties to Moscow.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
It's important to pay for serious journalism, but sometimes it's pricey for the average person. @wired.com's journalism this year has already justified the annual subscription ($10). Just re-subscribed.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
"Republican attorneys-general from more than a dozen US states have accused BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan of misrepresenting the risks of investing in China, including the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan." www.ft.com/content/14a9...
ft.com
Financial TimesFinancial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
The list "included a large crop of young analysts and operatives who were hired specifically to focus on China, and whose identities are usually closely guarded... The agency normally would prefer not to put these names in an unclassified system." No kidding.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Trump Is Turning Out To Be a Very Pro-China President @nahaltoosi.bsky.social makes a provocative and persuasive argument. www.politico.com/news/magazin...
politico.com
Trump Is Turning Out To Be a Very Pro-China President
From tariffs on allies to gutting aid programs to mocking the rule of law, the president’s moves could be a dream come true for the Chinese.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
"Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will make a three-day trip to the United States from Thursday for his first in-person talks with President Donald Trump in Washington" english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/02...
english.kyodonews.net
Japan PM to make 3-day trip to U.S. from Feb. 6 for talks with Trump
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishia will make a three-day trip to the United States from Feb. 6 for his first in-person talks with President Donald Trump in Washington, according to the Japan's top governmen...
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Patrick Daugherty @rotopat.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
I have invented my own AI model called "writing what's in my mind"
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
SecState Rubio speaks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It'll be interesting to see if Rubio becomes the primary interlocutor with China rather than NSA Waltz. www.reuters.com/world/us-top...
reuters.com
US top diplomat Rubio, China's Wang speak in first phone call, China says
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi by phone on Friday, China's foreign ministry said, the first call between the two top diplomats since President Donald Trump's administration took office on Monday.
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Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Xi and Putin discuss ties with Trump, Ukraine and Taiwan www.reuters.com/world/putin-...
reuters.com
Xi and Putin discuss ties with Trump, Ukraine and Taiwan
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed on Tuesday how to build ties with Donald Trump, prospects for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine and Moscow's firm support for Beijing's position on Taiwan.
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