iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Here are the net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period: RFM: 64↘ ↗10 (-54) IND: 59↘ ↗176 (+117) LAB: 53↘ ↗9 (-44) CON: 34↘ ↗32 (-2) LDM: 32↘ ↗10 (-22) LOC: 25↘ ↗30 (+5) GRN: 12↘ ↗12 (+0) SNP: 2↘ ↗2 (+0)

A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2026. Flow numbers in the text of the main post.

040

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Nearly 60% of pupils at Integrated secondary schools now identify as non-Christian, yet the sector hasn’t updated its Statement of Principles since 2008, when far fewer did.

A bar chart showing the distribution of religious belief amongst 16 year olds.

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The sector discriminates on the basis of religion, aspiring to a 40/40/20 mix of Protestant, Catholic and other pupils. But these targets are out of step with enrolments.

A line plot showing the enrolment trend at Integrated primary schools. The share from the "other" community has increased from 24% in 2008 to 40% in 2025.

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Integrated schools, like almost all schools in Northern Ireland, provide a Christian-based rather than a secular approach. Yet the families who want Integrated Education do not align well with this ethos.

A stacked column chart illustrating this point.

100

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Amongst religious families, frequency of church attendance correlates negatively with preferences for Integrated Education.

A bar chart showing preference for Integrated schools by frequency of church attendance. The main article includes numbers in the text.

100

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Non-religious and mixed-religion families also prefer Integrated schools, to a greater extent than families who identify with a single Christian denomination.

A bar chart showing preference for Integrated schools by religious family structure. The main article includes numbers in the text.

100

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The appetite for Integrated Education is greatest amongst those who reject the traditional binary labels.

A bar chart showing that parental age adults identifying as "neither" Catholic or Protestant support Integrated schools more strongly than those who do, by around 70% to 40%.

100

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Surveys show that community and religious identities split three ways in Northern Ireland today, with young adults rejecting its traditional binary classifications in increasing numbers.

A bar chart showing how adults living in Northern Ireland identify along religious and community lines. Three categories – Catholic, Protestant and Neither – are virtually tied with one third each.

100

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

If you think the pictures are bad, check out the words:

JOIN THE CLUB
What I want The Amol Rajan Connection to be above all is a club. I love clubs. Clubbability: that’s me. Membership of something beyond and bigger than ourselves is perhaps the yearning that defines our species. And I’m not saying the ARC Universe is going to become a major world religion but, well, give it time.

What I want above all, honestly, is for you - yes YOU, reading this right now, at home or at work or out and about - to know that I am inviting you to join, and that I would treasure your membership, never take it for granted, and work damn hard to make sure you felt it provided life-improving value.

There are 4 tiers. Which one is for you? I did think, by the way, of naming these tiers after spin bowlers, in ascending order of greatness: (Jim) Laker; (Sydney) Barnes; (Muttiah) Muralitharan; (Shane) Warne. If you know, you know. But a couple of wise female heads pointed out that this might, er, deter a significant proportion of the human population. (If you’re interested in spin bowlers, check out the shop tab…)

So I’ve gone for cocktails instead, in ascending order of deliciousness and personal affection. These days, I really don’t drink much, but when I do I like a gorgeous cocktail; and I can tell you that a Pina Colada is at the summit for good reason. It’s true that Del Boy was a huge hero figure to me growing up. But I’m now utterly obsessed with the Caribbean, and Jamaica in particular, and as a matter of principle I always order a Pina Colada in any bar that sells one.

I’d love it if you came in at whichever level suited you. All are welcome, and I’m very excited about what we’re going to build together.

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Here are the net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period: RFM: 50↘ ↗10 (-40) LAB: 49↘ ↗9 (-40) IND: 44↘ ↗152 (+108) CON: 28↘ ↗25 (-3) LDM: 25↘ ↗9 (-16) LOC: 18↘ ↗15 (-3) GRN: 12↘ ↗6 (-6) SNP: 2↘ ↗2 (+0)

A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2026. Flow numbers are in the text of the main post.

020

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

This Amol Rajan? Surely not.

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Surely this is a parody. Surely. No one can lack self-awareness to this extent?! Hard to believe that the BBC editorial team have actually been dialling his smugness and arrogance back by several orders of magnitude up until this point.

4142

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

I've updated the article with a new chart that shows the split by age and religion. This demonstrates that religious differences persist across age groups and are not merely due to differences in their relative proportions:

A bubble plot showing attitudes to the death penalty and wealth inequality by age and religion. This demonstrates that religious differences persist across age groups and are not merely due to differences in their relative proportions.

020

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Considering the combination of party and religion, it is notable that party affiliation is a much stronger predictor of attitudes than religion. For voters on the right, there is little difference in attitudes across religions. Whereas the parties on the left maintain broader churches:

A bubble plots showing attitudes to the death penalty and wealth distribution by a combination of party and religion.

120

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

The results by religion surprised me. In particular, Brits identifying as Anglican were more strongly in favour of the death penalty than I had expected, given that the church officially opposes this punishment, and more opposed to wealth redistribution than I had expected too:

A bubble plot showing attitudes on the death penalty and wealth inequality by religion. Anglicans, the largest religious group in Britain, are amongst the strongest supporters of the death penalty (with net support of +32%), and have the strongest opposition to wealth redistribution of all groups (-13%). This contrasts with the largest group of all, non-religious Britons, representing just over half of BES respondents. This group is more equivocal on the death penalty (while still displaying marginal net support of +8%), but much more clearly in favour of the redistribution of wealth (+22%).

220

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Unsurprisingly, voters for the main political parties hold radically different opinions here:

A bubble plot showing attitudes on the death penalty and wealth inequality by party. Green, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid Cymru voters are opposed to the death penalty and in favour of wealth redistribution, whilst Conservative and Reform UK voters hold the opposite opinions.

120

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Here are the net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period: LAB: 46↘ ↗7 (-39) RFM: 41↘ ↗9 (-32) IND: 33↘ ↗135 (+102) CON: 25↘ ↗18 (-7) LDM: 22↘ ↗8 (-14) LOC: 17↘ ↗13 (-4) GRN: 11↘ ↗6 (-5) SNP: 2↘ ↗1 (-1)

061

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

I noticed that too! It's been fixed now. Makes you wonder how that section is curated. I had assumed it was AI-driven.

An updated top 5 trending list which doesn't include "Farage wins in Clacton".

121

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

I'm going with three pairs of ski googles stacked...

A very intelligent man preparing to watch the eclipse through three stacked pairs of ski goggles.

100

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Another policy area where voters are keen to see action is on flags. Here there is strong support for removing them from lampposts, another area where @allianceparty.bsky.social is trying to legislate.

A split bar plot showing the strength of support for policies to remove flags from lamnpposts amongst supporters of Stormont's five main parties.

130

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Bizarrely, Ulster Scots receives greater support from voters of both nationalist parties than from UUP voters, 41% of whom oppose measures to promote it.

A split bar plot showing the strength of support for measures to promote Ulster Scots amongst supporters of Stormont's five main parties.

121

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The most divisive issue of all is government support for measures to promote the Irish language – quite remarkable during a cost of living crisis.

A split bar plot showing the strength of support for measures to promote the Irish language amongst supporters of Stormont's five main parties.

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Digging into the detail demonstrates the strength of support for assisted dying amongst @allianceparty.bsky.social supporters in particular:

A split bar chart showing the strength of support for assisted dying amongst supporters of Stormont's five main parties.

282

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

First up is an overview of the main issues which split the parties (NB: I just cover the main 5 parties here due to data limitations). Some surprises are already evident, including clear cross-party support for abortion choice and assisted dying, even from the DUP.

A dot plot showing where the five main Stormont parties stand on 11 key issues.

211

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

...and net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period: LAB: 44↘ ↗7 (-37) RFM: 37↘ ↗9 (-28) IND: 31↘ ↗124 (+93) CON: 23↘ ↗17 (-6) LDM: 21↘ ↗5 (-16) LOC: 17↘ ↗12 (-5) GRN: 6↘ ↗6 (+0) SNP: 2↘ ↗1 (-1)

030

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

...as well as the relative size of each county's Protestant and Catholic populations at the time, and their overall literacy rates.

A scatter plot of Irish counties, using data from the 1911 Irish National census. It shows the relative size of Protestant and Catholic populations, as well as the average adult literacy rate for each county.

010

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

I investigate the ancestral dynasties of Ireland, mapping them by county to show the dominant clan in each area. #Speirgorm

A chloropleth map showing the most common surname in each Irish county in 1911.

140

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Analysis of the top 150 surnames reveals a surprising fact – the surname Joyce was the most illiterate surname of its day. #BookSky #JamesJoyce

A scatter plot of surnames, using data from the 1911 Irish National census. It shows their relative popularity amongst Protestants vs Catholics, as well as the average adult literacy rate for each name. Joyce is the surname with the lowest literacy rate.

190

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Along the way we discover what your name would have said about you in 1911 – which community were you more likely to be from, and how educated were you?

A scatter plot of firstnames, using data from the 1911 Irish National census. It shows their relative popularity amongst Protestants vs Catholics, as well as the average adult literacy rate for each name.

150

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Some reaction from Figueres in Spainu

100

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Most constituencies now have non-religious pluralities. Surely it is well past time for the house of commons which represents them to reflect this fact and dispense with the praying. believethedata.org/the-inflecto...

010

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

Great charts! This one in particular shows how historically awful the Conservatives' losses have been in the last two elections, no matter how they might try to spin the results.

A bar chart showing the proportional change in seats for the opposition party at local elections since 1962. The Conservatives results in the last two years are the worst and second worst results.

060

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

So Greens will likely do MUCH better that this model suggests (particularly as: i. they have underperformed in local by-elections so far; and ii. on the back of increased perceived viability follwoing Gorton & Denton). This will come at Labour's cost. But an interesting first stab nevertheless.

A table displaying projected seat totals after the English Local Elections of May 2026. Compared to May 2025, the parties are projected to have the following net movements in seat totals: Labour Party had 6134 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 1696 coucillors to end up with 4438 coucillors. Liberal Democrats had 3197 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 458 coucillors to end up with 3655 coucillors. Conservative and Unionist had 4413 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 833 coucillors to end up with 3580 coucillors. Reform UK had 810 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 1838 coucillors to end up with 2648 coucillors. Independent / Other had 2578 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 5 coucillors to end up with 2573 coucillors. Green Party had 894 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 242 coucillors to end up with 1136 coucillors.

220

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

The latest AI nonsense Google has decided to serve me – distinctly *not* a Wikipedia experience.

An AI overview of "identity politics" from a Google search for that term:

Identity politics refers to political and social movements where people with shared characteristics—such as race, gender, sexuality, religion, or background—organize to promote their specific interests, address marginalization, and fight discrimination. Emerging in the 1980s, it focuses on, for example, Wikipedia (e.g., LGBTQ+, feminist movements) challenging power structures, often in response to the limitations of traditional, Wikipedia (e.g., liberal, Wikipedia or Wikipedia civil rights) approaches to achieving equality.
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
+5
Key aspects of identity politics include:
Focus on Marginalization: Movements often aim to counteract experiences of prejudice, injustice, and exclusion, notes the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
Reclaiming Identity: It involves challenging negative stereotypes and demanding recognition of distinct, Wikipedia experiences, say the Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

010

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

This might have something to do with it?!

4160

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

Here are the net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period: LAB: 202↘ ↗12 (-190) CON: 187↘ ↗29 (-158) IND: 92↘ ↗324 (+232) LOC: 45↘ ↗39 (-6) RFM: 34↘ ↗131 (+97) LDM: 29↘ ↗22 (-7) GRN: 15↘ ↗52 (+37) SNP: 5↘ ↗0 (-5)

A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. Flow numbers in the text of the main post.

060

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

Here are the net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period: LAB: 197↘ ↗12 (-185) CON: 187↘ ↗27 (-160) IND: 89↘ ↗316 (+227) LOC: 44↘ ↗39 (-5) RFM: 33↘ ↗131 (+98) LDM: 26↘ ↗21 (-5) GRN: 15↘ ↗50 (+35) SNP: 5↘ ↗0 (-5)

010

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

Here are the net movements due to defections over the same period: LAB: 180↘ ↗12 (-168) CON: 163↘ ↗23 (-140) IND: 75↘ ↗314 (+239) LOC: 41↘ ↗24 (-17) RFM: 30↘ ↗102 (+72) LDM: 23↘ ↗18 (-5) GRN: 12↘ ↗35 (+23) SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period: LAB: 162↘ ↗11 (-151) CON: 158↘ ↗18 (-140) IND: 66↘ ↗291 (+225) LOC: 40↘ ↗21 (-19) RFM: 29↘ ↗101 (+72) LDM: 21↘ ↗17 (-4) GRN: 8↘ ↗29 (+21) SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)

030

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

Defections since Local Elections in May this year (to 31st Oct): LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142) CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130) IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217) LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17) RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67) LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6) GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14) SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)

A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.

3115

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

If these successful defense percentages are exactly replicated in the 2026 local elections (and transfers between parties are also replicated), the net movement in seats will be as shown in the table below:

2171

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period: LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142) CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130) IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217) LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17) RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67) LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6) GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14) SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)

162

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Bluesky just hit 40,000,000 accounts! Congratulations to @jay.bsky.team and all the team. There's never been a better time to leave X...

030

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

A line chart paints a thousand words 💚

A line chart showing polling in the UK, with the Green party demonstrating a classic hockey stick pattern, Labour a slide into the abyss.

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking into account all defections and by-elections since LE2025 and now updated with results from Lib Dem "super-Thursday" last week 😂. Model assumptions in comment below.

110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

And defections (or losses of whip) over the same period: CON: 142↘ ↗14 (-128) LAB: 140↘ ↗11 (-129) IND: 58↘ ↗254 (+196) LOC: 38↘ ↗16 (-22) LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4) RFM: 18↘ ↗94 (+76) GRN: 5↘ ↗19 (+14) SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3) Pretty much neck & neck between LAB and CON.

040