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Reposted by Ryan Israelsen

NBER @nber.org · 09/05/2026

A study of AI's recommendation for household portfolios, from Bruce I. Carlin, Ryan D. Israelsen, and Christopher F. Wazzan www.nber.org/papers/w35153

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

MSU Broad featured my recent JFE publication with @nandinigupta.bsky.social and Eitan Goldman, "Political Polarization in Financial News". We find that politics flavors the reporting and coverage of financial news, leading to more disagreement and trading. Video: youtu.be/Sxkn8OUNA-M.

youtu.be

Broad Research Spotlight: Ryan Israelsen - Broad College of Business

YouTube video by MSU Broad College of Business

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

All I see is some sick rail slides on my snowboard.

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Reposted by Ryan Israelsen

Florence School of Banking & Finance @eui-fbf-school.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Does political partisanship shape how people react to banking crises? At our latest 'Finance in the Tuscan Hills' seminar, @israelsen.bsky.social presented research showing that Republican-leaning areas were more likely to trigger bank runs during the SVB collapse. 🏦📉 fbf.eui.eu/events/?id=5...

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

Here’s what it looked like before it washed away.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

This is the dock from the Florence rowing club as it is washing away from the torrential rains in the Arno River. It’s probably in the Tyrrhenian Sea now. The boathouse is under the Uffizi Galleries. I’ve been able to row there with the EUI.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

I guess I won’t be rowing again any time soon. There goes the Florence Rowing Club’s dock in the rising waters of the Arno.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Congratulations! Love that paper.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

Incredible! My last attempt was interrupted by an urgent phone call.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Competing narratives from ‘61

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Reposted by Ryan Israelsen

Kristine Hankins @kwhankins.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Welcome @alexchinco.bsky.social to BlueSky! Alex is one of the best writers in finance academia. I don't know if he'll post regularly, but I'd encourage everyone to follow him.

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Reposted by Ryan Israelsen

Nandini Gupta @nandinigupta.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Good idea. Using sentiment analysis @israelsen.bsky.social, eitan goldman and I found that the same corporate financial news is covered differently in the NYT vs WSJ based on corporations’ politics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

Political polarization in financial news

Comparing coverage of the same corporate financial news by the conservative Wall Street Journal and the liberal New York Times, we find strong evidenc…

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Thanks. It really shows that the impact is heterogenous.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

For reference, here is the future 12 month return of the Russell 3000 index over that period. It is rarely negative over a year.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Incredible that the number has only ever been above 50% one other time.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

LLM‘s use random seeds. If you feed it the prompt 100 times it will give you slightly different answers. You could try that and then see how close the essays are on average.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Unfortunately, I don't know of any such free service. Depending on where you live, you may be able to access databased like Refinitiv, Bloomberg, FactSet, etc. at a public library.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Stock price is correct if you look at the original unadjusted prices in the CRSP database. BTW, I just checked the first two stocks and the dividends per share (annual) look pretty much like the first number.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

My guess is the first set of numbers is a dividend yield (though I haven't checked), the 2nd number is the P-E ratio (rounded to integer), the 3rd number is volume (in hundreds) -though CRSP shows a higher number. Not sure about "u". maybe it has to do with what happened to prices near the close?

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Also, the 2nd company ACF Industries had 1978 (GAAP?) earnings of 4.72 per share which makes their P/E 7.36

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Fiscal year 1978 (street) earnings per share were 2.48. I think that is what would be used in the P/E Ratio. 1979 wouldn't have been announced yet. That would make it 16.63

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

What date is the article from? That might help.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing. I will read it carefully.

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Reposted by Ryan Israelsen

Kristine Hankins @kwhankins.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Timely research!

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

9/ 🎓 Why It Matters: This study bridges immigration economics and public finance, showing how local conditions mediate the fiscal effects of unauthorized immigration. A must-read for researchers & policymakers! 🖇️

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

8/ 💡 New Insight: Municipal bond markets are a real-time lens for gauging immigration’s fiscal effects. Bond yield shifts reveal localized economic impacts of policy and demographic changes. #FinSky

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

7/ 🛠️ Policy Implications: Immigration’s fiscal impact varies by local context. One-size-fits-all policies won’t work. Complementary policies (e.g., labor market interventions) could help communities absorb immigrant inflows better. #PolicyResearch

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

6/ 🔍 Labor Market Effects: In low-participation, tight markets: -Immigration reduces labor shortages. -Boosts labor force participation. In sanctuary areas: -Unemployment rises 2x compared to non-sanctuary regions, without labor force gains. #LaborEconomics

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

5/ 🏗️ Fiscal Impacts: Unauthorized immigration predicts higher future spending on: -Welfare assistance -Capital outlays/construction -Education -Law enforcement But no offsetting tax revenue increases (at least locally), creating fiscal imbalances. #Economics

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

4/ 🌍 Data Sources: Syracuse TRAC immigration database (detailed unauthorized immigration flows). U.S. Census data for foreign-born populations and local govt financials Muni bond yields and details from Mergent. Labor market data from BLS #PublicFinance

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

3/ 📊 Our two-stage approach: 1️⃣ Predict unauthorized immigration flows using "push factors" from source countries (e.g., political instability, inflation). 2️⃣ Model local settlement patterns using pre-existing foreign-born populations. #EconMethods

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

2/ 🚦 Main Findings: In areas with tight labor markets and few workers, unauthorized immigration correlates with lower municipal bond yields, signaling improved fiscal outlooks. In typical markets and sanctuary areas, yields rise, reflecting perceived fiscal risks. #EconSky #Finsky

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

1/ 📢 New Paper Alert! In a new paper with Jess Cornaggia and Kimberly Cornaggia, we examine how unauthorized immigration impacts local government finances in the U.S., focusing on municipal bond markets and impacts at the local level. 🧵

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

I predict prediction markets will be outlawed. That’s the kind of contract. I’d like to see trading on polymarket.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Dang. I was hoping things had improved since the previous time.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

How long is SSRN taking to approve submission these days? #econsky #finsky

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

There’s a fascinating radiolab episode about language and colors - specifically blue. The whole episode is great but that part starts at 47:00. radiolab.org/podcast/2111...

radiolab.org

Colors

Radiolab rips the rainbow a new one.

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Ryan Israelsen @israelsen.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Can you please add me, thank you!

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Reposted by Ryan Israelsen

Kristine Hankins @kwhankins.bsky.social · 07/11/2024

🚨Call for papers: JCF/Bocconi/@cepr.org Conference on 'Info, Contracts, and Firms' *Keynote: Mike Ewens *Featured Panel: 'The Changing Info Environment' w/ @profcookson.bsky.social, @israelsen.bsky.social, & Laurent Fresard *More to come! Deadline: Nov 18 www.neeley.tcu.edu/jcf-conferen...

neeley.tcu.edu

Journal of Corporate Finance Special Issue Conference 2025

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