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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 4h

FF and Labour are overperforming compared to pure PR. SF, FG, II and SD are about right. Aontú are well below based on picking up relatively few transfers.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 4h

FF-FG would be short of a majority, but Independent Ireland or Aontú would get them to the line + a few indos.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 4h

Here are the full results, its disappointing for all the big 3. It's better news for the SDs, Aontú and Independent Ireland. The Greens and PBP-S are on 0, but both would require very small swings to win seats.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 4h

Our projection on the latest @Independent_ie / @ireland_thinks poll 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 37 ⭐ Fine Gael — 35 🟪 Soc Dems — 22 🌹 Labour — 11 🌳 Aontú — 9 💬 Ind — 9 🟢 Ind Ireland — 7

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Under other PR systems, this is how it could play out.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Not a huge amount of change from the last poll, but it remains poor for FF-FG. Forming a government from this mess would be very difficult. You could get there with SF+FF+Lab or FF+FG+SD but neither is a great fit.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Here 's the key for the map, and you can make your own projection here: Irishelections.ie/general/

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Our projection for the next Irish General Election from @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 🌹 Labour — 12 💬 Inds— 10 🌳 Aontú — 6 🟢 Ind Ireland — 6 ✊ PBP-S — 2 🌱 Green — 1

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

All of this assumes that parties and voters would act in exactly the same way in each system which they probably wouldn't. Take the other PR options as a way of seeing the differences between the systems rather than a real projection.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Pure-PR is the 'fairest' but has no constituency link. It's the national results put through Sainte-Laguë, similar to the Dutch way. Independents are treated as individuals but, because the bar for a seat is so low, 12 made it despite their votes coming from 1 constituency.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Provincial PR helps independents (they pick up a lot in Connaught-Ulster and Munster). AMS+ helps them for the same reasons. This is more proportional than the German or Scottish systems but is the only reasonable way to mimic it without drawing new boundaries.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The difference between STV & simple D'Hondt is pretty clear. This is the same first preferences in the same place, but simple D'Hondt combines all candidates of the same party and doesn't do transfers. Smaller parties struggle and bigger parties gain.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

We've added a new (optional) table which lets you see what would happen if Irish elections were run under different systems. Here is 2024: irishelections.ie/general/

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

FF-FG + someone else remains the most likely path to a government on these numbers. One of Aontú, Labour or Independent Ireland would get close, as would a collection of independents.

FF 39 +FG 40 = 79 seats. 8 short of a majority

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

This is an excellent poll for Aontú and the SDs continue to squeeze Labour, the Greens and PBP-S. The big three are still well ahead but pretty flat.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/

Map of Ireland by largest party, SF North and Dublin, Independents in Midlands, FF, SD, II, Ao and FG more scattered

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

The most likely government outcome would be more of the same, FG+FF and some independents or II/Ao to get them over the line (formal or informally).

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

SF and FG are very close together, FF's transfer friendliness keeps them relatively close in terms of seats. The smaller parties could suffer under these numbers but they're very close to winning some seats.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie polls: ⭐ Fine Gael — 42 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 42 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 💬 Independent — 10 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌳 Aontú — 7 🌹 Labour — 6 irishelections.ie/general/

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

It's a messy map with FG, SF, SD, II, FF, independents and Aontú all getting the most votes in at least one constituency. Independents & Others should be read with particular caution.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

It's a solid poll for FG, just -1 since the election. Also decent for who are SF perfectly flat since 2024. FF down a fair whack and SD trebling their support are the most impactful changes. II and Aontú also making decent gains, Labour struggling.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

FF-FG's rotating government would likely continue on these numbers. Aontú+some Inds or II would get them over the line.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Our projection on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie ⭐ Fine Gael — 42 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 38 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 💬 Independent — 10 🟢 Ind Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 2 irishelections.ie

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

The map is looking very fragmented, SF, FG, SD, FF, II, Aontú and Independents are the largest vote winners in at least one constituency. SF along the border and in Dublin is closest anyone has to 'heartland' right now.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

We have the Soc Docs winning a few doubles, Dublin Bay North & Kildare North being particularly strong.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

On these numbers a left or right coalition would be just about feasible but would be very unstable. Getting a few Indos onside would help make up the numbers but not improve stability.

All left gov (excluding independents): 85 seats, 2 short.

All right gov (excluding independents): 79 seats, 8 short.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie

Map coloured by largest party: Very scattered colours

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

Going forward we'll make a few tweaks. Like, more FG -> Green transfers and we'll dial down our non-transferables.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

The only change we made to the original setting was designating Hutch as 'Right' rather than 'Assorted.' This means he got more of Steenson's transfers than before.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right). The system works!

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Our model works with any set of numbers so you can see how we think the transfers would play out. On Gavan's current numbers, we have the Soc Docs taking Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Hutch and Stevenson's combined shares are north of 10% in both the projection and the poll. In Galway, Sinn Féin are well clear of Labour on national swing. The numbers in the video are directly from Ipsos.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

We're mainly doing this as a test of our transfer model since national wing and constituency polls are both inaccurate in bye-elections.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Our national swing aligns pretty closely with the only poll of the race in Dublin Central, but if we run the poll numbers in Galway West then Labour take it. The actions of former Connolly voters is key, as are the performances of Cubbard & Welby.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

On these numbers, FF+FG+II gets closer to a majority than a left wing alliance. But the left has nudged closer to the line in recent months. (Whether its a formal coalition or an informal agreement, the maths is the same)

SF, SD, Labour, Green, PBP-S add up to 79 seats. 8 short of a majority.

FF, FG and Independent Ireland with 85 seats, 2 short of a majority.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41 ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 💬 Independent — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 From irishelections.ie/general

Parliament chart showing seats as stated in tweet.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

A broad left coalition gets closer to the majority line than FF-FG, but would need support from independents and would be very divided.

SF + SD + Lab + PBPS = 83 seats. 87 needed.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Our Projection based on the latest RedC research / @businesspost.bsky.social poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 37 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35 🟪 Social Democrats — 23 💬 Independent — 12 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 4 🌳 Aontú — 3 ✊ PBP-S — 1 From irishelections.ie

Map of Ireland coloured by largest party per constituency.

Table showing results as described in tweet

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 07/12/2025

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45 ⭐ Fine Gael — 37 🟪 Social Democrats — 16 💬 Independent — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 1

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Good spot, we agree that seems pretty unlikely! As you can imagine, projecting parties in places they didn't stand last time is very tricky! We're going to keep working on it to make it as accurate as possible, although it'll never be perfect.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 25/10/2025

A projection for the next NI Assembly based on the latest LucidTalk - @belfasttelegraph.co.uk poll ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 17 🤝 AP — 12 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 11 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 04/10/2025

An IrishElections projection based on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 46 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 ⭐ Fine Gael — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 18 🌹 Labour — 9 💬 Independent — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 5 🌳 Aontú — 3 ✊ PBP-S — 2 irishelections.ie/general/

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated. Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win! Presets will be added once polls come in. irishelections.ie/presidential/

irishelections.ie

Irish Election Projections

Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

A projection based on the latest Red C/Business Post poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 42 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 40 ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 20 💬 Independent — 11 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 🌳 Aontú — 1 From @irishelection.bsky.social

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

Currently we have Connolly, Humphreys, Gavin, Sinn Féin and Other as options. We'll update if anyone else is nominated and when SF pick a candidate, or decide not run.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

If you leave the Transfer Friendliness on 1x it uses the numbers from 2024 for that party (or similar independents). Dialling them up or down has a huge effect Here's Humphreys on the same first preferences but double the Transfer Friendliness:

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection! Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner. irishelections.ie/presidential/

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