iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The Active ETFs crowding into $NVDA now. This rips will make so many people mad! cc @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Not sure if I will keep posting everyday, but here were the changes from yesterday. claude.ai/artifact/79q...

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Daily Fixed Income ETF Report. Big rebalance! claude.ai/artifact/WwQ...

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The Q3 hedge fund letters are going to be so interesting (extremely baggy) to read. Needed to be OW Healthcare + Energy + not barf when Tech momentum rolled over in July/August. S&P500 up 3%. GFL beating that! The rotation inside the index has been brutal. Anyone within 500-800bps did okay.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Its in here with Active Managers / Passive / Total!

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Still squashing bugs and making upgrades. Seeing what the Bond Boyz are doing is fascinating. Big flow into Treasuries yesterday:

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

MAGA freaks should hold more hearings like this where they cook themselves because the future memes from the pics are top shelf. I have a dozen ready to roll from Britt.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Going to be a great meme.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Taco Loading courtesy of Uncle Scott.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I thought the chart below on % of stocks beating S&P500 over time frames was a good discussion on @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social Compound podcast this week. Someone should make this into an ETF. Let me just buy the winners and ignore everything else.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Bond Market right now with my favorite pic. My bet is a leveraged bond fund got smoked. They are getting margin called. News will come out and the 10yr will drop from 5.22 to 4.75 in under a week.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I flagged this early this year and sold out of this sector and took some heat. Its a really interesting setup (one of my favorites) though with the NTM PE collapsing, while earnings growth continues to accelerate.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Also look at Utilities $XLU. Probably more going on than datacenter trade + rate moves. Going to be hauled in for hearings over price increases.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

IDK. All of it seems noisy and unlikely any actionable signal.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Almost to the home stretch. Just get me to next Tuesday (day after Yom Kippur). I want to hit buy buttons but showing restraint. Also Blackrock is going to be doing a model rebalance next Tuesday as well.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I just need a few more panicked emails and phone calls from my usual suspects.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The last 3 months or so. Just get me to next Tuesday (Buy Yom Kippur).

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The "no hike / soft landing" part comes from the analysis on this prompt: In the 10 day selling list, what sector, theme or company are the active etfs most likely wrong on if earnings continue to accelerate, the middle east Iran war situation gets resolved, the federal reserve doesn't hike rates

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Its interesting. Had the signal added to claude memory and will underwrite a potential investment if it goes off.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I have started asking my AI ETF Project what the Active Funds (about $425B in AUM) have been selling over the last 10 session, not just buying: 2 battles in my head: - don't own what they are selling - find out what they are wrong on, all sellers will be out & will be forced buyers at a later date.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Claude Cowork not able to run local commands has become very disruptive. Microsoft and Anthropic need to get a fix done already.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

This is the chart that scares me:

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Pretty good chart. Buckle up.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

My 10% alpha bucket was leveled up to 15%. I need some non-tech, hike resilient changes. Still working through the recommendations, but its interesting and names I would have never even thought to look at.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Been doing the picture book with my 16mo and laugh every time knowing it’s close to the cognitive test Trump has been doing.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

I was curious and ran the whole series. Buckle Up!

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Yes! Also in those years there is a lot of volatility. Here is 9/30/18 to 9/30/19. There was a nearly 20% bang down when Fed was hiking in late 2018.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Getting to the home stretch of volatility into midterm election years. 12m fw returns are nearly undefeated after 9/30 going back to 1934 during midterm years. Through bubble pops, wars, depression, 70s, LTCM blowup. The worst year was down .7%. AVG return is 24.1% in this 12 month period.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The $41B Blackrock Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF rebalanced last week while I was away. My AI ETF project is pretty awesome. Some pretty good insights.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Build me more AI compute please.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Crazy Uncle Bill making moves.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

44 of the 68 active ETFs I am tracking are beating the S&P500 YTD. My ETF project keeps getting refined and has become very smart. IDK if its luck or there is actual Alpha doing this, but its making money. Still very early.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Blackrock's Active Country Rotation ETF rebalanced on Monday. It has very good insights from across the entire Blackrock platform. Swapped half a percent of EWY moved directly into SKHY. Claude says positioning captures Hormuz reopening and oil slapped back down.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Its a newer active ETF, but CTEF is pretty darn impressive. It trades a lot with an options overlay with it. I don't own it yet, but its hard to ignore what they are doing.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Flagging AEO, QLYS, CNX, ENS, ANF this morning.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

My ETF project is really coming together. It now builds really interesting recommendations for my "alpha bucket", which is starting to build a very good track record. Last week:

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

One of my last "value, sotp, related party, insider family drama" situations getting volume all of a sudden the past few days. No idea what is going to happen, but I hope its at least funny. Transcontinental Realty TCI.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Its a core fund average excess returns of around 100bps annually since inception (2019). It has also evolved with even better performance over the last 5 years.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Possibly. I like this Tweet though and it has summed up the last 15 years pretty well.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Pretty solid YTD so far from the Active ETFs. I think my projects are very much on the right path.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Still squashing some bugs and working data out, but Claude built me a very nice earnings dashboard:

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

No idea how the stock reacts but these $GOOGL numbers are silly big: Alphabet Q2 Earnings

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

The Active ETFs are shifting again. $CGDV (I own) is one of Capital Groups flagship ETFs focused on Dividend Value: YTD and 3yr charts. Easily beating S&P500 and Large Cap Value.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

I don't think this would be a melt up. It might be a crash up as everyone updates their models, assumptions, and expectations. IE, on Wednesday Google shows another massive Blue bar that is even larger than last quarter, while upgrading CAPEX spend. Commentary saying AI generating cash flow.

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Also from Tax Alpha Insider, Schwab issuing margin calls for the tax aware long short strategy. I am very happy not onboarding this strategy and having to explain getting margin called to people.

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