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Reposted by @instant-warrior.bsky.social

Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

A first year above 2C in the mid-2030s now looks plausible. 0.5C was first passed in 1980, 1.0C in 2010 and 1.5C in 2024. The 15-year trend runs at 0.42C per decade. The 2026 and 2027 points for the current El Nino are estimates. We're not remotely ready!

Line chart titled "A first year above 2 C in the mid-2030s looks increasingly plausible". It shows global mean surface temperature from 1940 to 2050 as the annual anomaly against the 1850 to 1900 baseline, in degrees C. Data is ERA5 from Copernicus, running to 31 July 2026.

A thin gold line shows individual years, wobbling around a thick dark blue smoothed trend. Both sit near 0.2 C through the 1940s to the early 1970s, then climb steadily from the mid-1970s onward.

Three red dots mark the first year each threshold was passed. 0.5 C in 1980, 1.0 C in 2010 and 1.5 C in 2024. Labels beneath note the gap of 30 years between the first two and 14 years between the second and third. Everything above 1.5 C is shaded pink.

Two dashed lines run forward from 2025. A blue line follows the 15-year trend of 0.42 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2037. A fainter grey line follows the 30-year trend of 0.27 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2044.

Two orange circles mark estimates for the developing El Niño, at about 1.5 C for 2026 and about 1.7 C for 2027.

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