in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 12/09/2026static.klipy.comIndiana Jones IndyALT: Indiana Jones Indy 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Only if you’re an extra in an Indiana Jones movie. 120
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 11/09/2026(Also, our country has been getting cleaner and richer.) 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 11/09/2026When you say that only when discussing minorities, then yes that is racist. 101
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Sure, of course. I thought you were referring to the two people mentioned in the article. However, in this case, they are the ones who scaled up their company (though I don’t doubt ex-Doterra people were involved early on; there are lots of ex-Doterra people in Utah). 100
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 10/09/2026I don’t think the Crumbl founders worked for Doterra. McGowan was at Ancestry.com and Hemsley was a college student.ancestry.comAncestry | Family Tree, Genealogy & Family History RecordsAncestry® helps you understand your genealogy. A family tree takes you back generations—the world's largest collection of online family history records makes it 100
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 29/08/2026This is true of economics too. “Efficiency” “Equilibrium” “Rational” “Self-interested” 010
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Many people think farming gives them some tangible output with very little effort. You just plant the tree and then let the sun and rain do the rest, right? The goats just eat whatever they can find, right? 010
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 25/08/2026I’m saddened by this news. Hervé is a top scholar and I don’t understand Elsevier’s actions here. 010
Reposted by @in-consistent.bsky.socialRetraction Watch @retractionwatch.com · 24/08/2026Six editors and nearly 60 advisory editors of Games and Economic Behavior resigned after Elsevier, the journal’s publisher, decided not to renew the editor-in-chief’s contract.retractionwatch.comEditors of economics journal resign after Elsevier doesn’t renew EIC’s contractSix editors and nearly 60 advisory editors of Games and Economic Behavior resigned after the journal’s publisher decided not to renew the editor-in-chief’s contract. In late July, Elsevier to… 03718
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Sympathy for the ignorant and manipulated. Disdain for the malicious and opportunists. 010
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 13/08/2026I don’t view maintaining a drivers license or car registration as contradictory either. That is usually an inertia thing. If a student thinks they won’t return home but uncertain exactly where they will land, then keeping their drivers license is the easy thing to do, not a claim of residency. 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 13/08/2026It’s not gaming the system when the parents claim they are providing support to an adult child, while the child claims they are a resident of a different state. These aren’t contradictory things. 120
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 13/08/2026This is the crux of my disagreement. I don’t think these should be the relevant factors! The relevant factors are: Do you think you will return to your hometown after college? Or do you think you will end up somewhere else? 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Market forces are good actually. (In this case, filling non-preferred time slots by paying higher than the usual rate.) 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 13/08/2026If you don’t know where you will move to after the assignment, then yes. 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Many students pay more in taxes where they go to school than where their parents live. Also, if they have no intention of returning to their hometown, then I see little reason for them to register to vote there. 070
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 12/08/2026@idislikestephen.bsky.social Dear Idiot (laudatory): Really surprised no one mentioned “Torn” from Natalie Imbruglia (originally by Ednaswap) in your most recent All songs Considered episode on cover songs. Nevertheless, great episode. 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Another headline I swear was written by Madlibs. 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 11/08/2026And again: bsky.app/profile/in-c... 100
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Previously: bsky.app/profile/in-c... 100
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Yet another headline that I’m convinced was written using Madlibs. 100
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 28/07/2026This belief was refuted 250 years ago in The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, whose thesis was that prosperity comes to a nation through specialization and trade, not tariffs and protectionism. 011
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 28/07/2026I had parenting theories I was very confident about for 4 kids. And then my 5th kid threw a bunch of those theories out the window. He’s on the spectrum, and those theories mainly had to do with the need to be consistent to the point of stubbornness. Learned that some kids need flexibility. 040
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026By the way, I would absolutely take the coin flip. I think my certainty equivalent for the 50/50 gamble is in the $300k-350k range. But that is just me. 020
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026A classic economic “paradox” is why people would both gamble and buy insurance. 010
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026I’m not sure we are in a position to say anyone made a wrong decision. We are talking about an unincentivized survey question. Also I don’t know the sampling method they used to find respondents. That said, yes I also thought 73% was high. I would have expected 20-40%. 020
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026For a lot of people that is true. I think you have to be in the lower quartile of wealth distribution before this gets in the plausible levels of risk aversion. 100
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Yes people should definitely carefully consider their own risk preferences. If I was tasked with advising someone facing this choice, I would help estimate their risk aversion parameter by presenting them with a series of choices. The right choice absolutely depends on their risk preferences. 200
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026It is unclear to me how math could prove a normative claim. 010
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026The documented instances referred to the academic literature that reports experimental results of the endowment effect. But the original survey that began this discussion did not capture any endowment effect from what I understand. 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026I wouldn’t describe the choices this way. But broadly I’m not trying to agree or disagree with any side. Just trying to share my knowledge with people who have been discussing these issues. 020
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Sounds good. I would still emphasize that there are a lot of people for which this would not be a crazy choice, given what we know about typical risk preferences. 110
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026This isn’t entirely true. These choices are consistent with a risk averse EU decision maker. A well-known theoretical result in expected utility theory says an individual is risk averse if and only if they have a convex utility function (i.e., diminishing marginal utility of money). 010
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 27/07/2026I haven’t heard of that. I have heard of credible allegations against others (e.g., Ariely). But not Kahneman. 000
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/2026Possibly. Since this was a survey and not incentivized it is hard to know what to make of these results. I agree that many people make mistakes. But I disagree that there is a universally correct choice. 2130
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/2026I am an expert in decision theory and I disagree. bsky.app/profile/in-c... 1180
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202643/ The cool thing about subjective expected utility theory is that we can still use the structure (the tools of risk aversion) and intuition (there is normative appeal to making decisions this way) in a more realistic set up that doesn’t hand probability to you. 1100
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202642/ Sorry about the typo. This should say yes we can model this mathematically. bsky.app/profile/in-c... 170
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202641/ This example is known as the Ellsberg Paradox, and illustrates the concept of “ambiguity aversion”. (The Ellsberg Paradox was proposed by Daniel Ellsberg, who is best known for being the source of the leak of the Pentagon Papers.) 190
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202640/ This is because choosing red over black reveals that the person thinks the probability of red is higher than the probability of black. However choosing not red over not black reveals the opposite: that the probability of black (and yellow) is higher than the probability of red (and yellow). 170
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202639/ Because of this, many people prefer to bet on not red over not black. However, this is “irrational” according to maximizing subjective expected utility because a probability cannot be determined from these choices. 170
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202638/ Now consider two more bets: 1) Betting on not black (i.e., red or yellow) and 2) betting on not red (i.e., black or yellow). Now you know the probability of not red is 2/3 but the probability of not black can be anything between 1/3 and 1. 170
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202637/ The justification for this is the fact that you know you have a 1/3 chance of winning when you bet on red, but you don’t know the probability of winning when you bet on black. It could be 2/3 but it could also be 0 (or something in between). 170
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202636/ Now consider various bets on the outcome of pulling one ball out of the urn. One bet might earn you $100 if a red ball is drawn. Another might be winning $100 if a black ball is drawn. Which bet would you prefer? Many people would choose to bet on red than on black. 170
in-consistent.bsky.social @in-consistent.bsky.social · 26/07/202635/ Consider the following scenario. There is an urn with 90 balls. You know that there are 30 red balls. The other 60 balls are either black or yellow in unknown proportions. You have no special information about how many black balls or yellow balls there are. 170
