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Hugh Pemberton

@hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
1.4K followers 544 following 600 posts

Recent British history is my thing (political, governmental, economic); armchair strategic studies my secret vice. Emeritus Prof at Bristol. Sometime historian of the UK civil service, more recently of Thatcherism. But often on my allotment these days

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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
The problems raised by dynamic pricing for those measuring inflation are explored in this Bank Underground piece. But it raises an interesting question: what will inflation even mean in a new world of dynamic and personalised pricing which seems to be on the way bankunderground.co.uk/2026/04/16/w...
bankunderground.co.uk
What machines taking over pricing means for central banks
Anthony Savagar, Misa Tanaka and Jagdish Tripathy With increased availability of big data and computing power, more firms are adopting algorithmic and AI-powered pricing to adjust prices rapidly in…
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
This Harper's article is good on what is probably America's greatest problem today - it's transformation into a gerontocracy which represents an aging constituency that controls the political system, to the detriment of younger generations harpers.org/archive/2026...
harpers.org
The Old Guard, by Samuel Moyn
Confronting America’s gerontocratic crisis
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The English Historical Review @enghistrev.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Jim Tomlinson reviews 'A Neoliberal Revolution? Thatcherism and the Reform of British Pensions', by Aled Davies, James Freeman and Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social academic.oup.com/ehr/advance-... @manchesterup.bsky.social
academic.oup.com
A Neoliberal Revolution? Thatcherism and the Reform of British Pensions, by Aled Davies, James Freeman and Hugh Pemberton
Pension provision is a running sore of British public policy. While the current ‘triple-lock’ guarantees the real value of the state pension, that pension
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
We all want a better country, but first we have to ensure we actually have a country. Enough with the endless faffing around www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Former Nato chief to say UK's national security 'in peril'
Lord George Robertson will use a speech to accuse
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
How should the UK government manage the economic fallout from the Iran war? Useful suggestions here from the IfG www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Managing the economic consequences of the Iran war | Institute for Government
How should the government respond to the crisis in the Middle East?
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
An excellent and devastating analysis from Lawrence Freedman, concluding: "The US will never be irrelevant but while it wields its power so incompetently and counter-productively then its international influence will be correspondingly diminished." open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
open.substack.com
The causes and consequences of Trump’s defeat
The Islamabad negotiations were supposed to conclude the Iran War in such a way that the US and Israel would have something to show for the thousands of lives lost and ruined, the vast quantities of o...
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
For anyone without a vested interest in sustaining the Trump administration, it is all too obvious that the USA made a catastrophic mistake in Iran Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser www.economist.com/leaders/2026... From The Economist
economist.com
Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser
There is a reason he wants an exit from Iran
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Matthew Ford @warmatters.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
It appears the strategy for Making America Great Again is dependent on making everywhere else poorer. TBC: I thought this war was going to be short/sharp. POTUS was intoxicated by US tech. Maybe they could do this quickly. But we’re now at world recession, food crises, oil rationing & a 4 day week
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Interesting historical evidence from Romania that banning abortion doesn't actually stop abortions, but it does rather successfully kill women suffering complications from illegal abortions ourworldindata.org/cdn-cgi/imag...
Maternal mortality in Romania, 1965-2010
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Trump's media backers urge him on. Better a long war than a short war apparently 🤦 www.wsj.com/opinion/iran...
wsj.com
Opinion | Don’t Let Iran’s Hostage-Takers Win
Stopping the war weeks short would vindicate their Hormuz strategy.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Reading Foreign Affairs atm is to dive into a sea of bafflement that the USA can have so spectacularly blundered in the Middle East
Foreign Affairs homepage 1Foreign Affairs homepage 2
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David Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Matt's upset by people choosing to look at inconsistencies and inaccuracies rather than address his arguments (possibly because the latter depend on the former 🤔). Established book publishers being staunchly woke sounds awfully like code for being unable to find a publisher.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
On the precipitate Orbanification of the USA
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
👇
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
The #1 lesson of the CSPS fiasco is the one lesson the government almost inevitably won't learn - put an end to endless contracted-out failures by bringing public services back in house and re-learning the art of managing and delivering them effectively
civilserviceworld.com
Capita pledges pension-scheme ‘lessons’ for huge DWP contract
Richard Holroyd tells MPs the firm will sign a charter with the departments that are members of the Synergy shared-services cluster
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The WSJ has finally reported on widespread concerns that Trump's circle is making money by front-running his market-moving pronouncements www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
wsj.com
The Well-Timed Trades Made Moments Before Trump’s Policy Surprises
The president’s critics have raised concerns about the action in oil futures, S&P 500 ETF options and prediction markets.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
You can just hear him moaning "Don't bring me problems, bring me solutions" www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
wsj.com
Trump Tells Aides He Wants Speedy End to Iran War
The president has said that he wants to wrap up the conflict in the coming weeks.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
This is a very good discussion of how the USA has driven itself into an escalation trap from which the most plausible exit is to a much poorer and less safe world, one in which the USA has significantly degraded strategic power not just in the ME but across the board acoup.blog/2026/03/25/m...
acoup.blog
Miscellanea: The War in Iran
This post is a set of my observations on the current war in Iran and my thoughts on the broader strategic implications. I am not, of course, an expert on the region nor do I have access to any spec…
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
This is a very useful worked example of the UK's Byzantine and out-of-control planning system. We need to sweep the whole thing away and start again www.samdumitriu.com/p/anatomy-of...
samdumitriu.com
Anatomy of a Planning Refusal
When 7,500 pages isn’t enough detail
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
I see the Wall Street Journal is studiously ignoring this FT story about Trump insiders front-running his market shifting posts, and making huge profits www.ft.com/content/1171... via @FT
ft.com
Traders placed $580mn in oil bets ahead of Donald Trump’s social media post on Iran talks
Thousands of Brent and WTI contracts changed hands 15 minutes before president’s message on Truth Social
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
If this is an off-ramp from Trump then do not forget: 1. Go faster on energy transition. 2. A new security relationship with Europe/reconfiguration of NATO. 3. Deepen our economic alliances in Europe and with other "middle-rankers". 4. Greater resilience through stock-piling essential materials.
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Chris Kempshall @chriskempshall.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
This will be that 4 Dimensional Chess Thinking I've heard so much about
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Translation: we have made a colossal blunder, need the victims to help, but can't bring ourselves to admit it www.wsj.com/opinion/iran...
wsj.com
Opinion | Iran Attacks the Gulf Arabs. Will They Fight Back?
These states can do more to help as Tehran blocks and targets their energy.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Who has the cards now, Donald? www.wsj.com/opinion/amer...
wsj.com
Opinion | America Bombs Iran, and Zelensky Suddenly Holds Aces
‘You don’t have the cards,’ Trump said a year ago. Today U.S. allies implore Ukraine for drone help.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Trump on 13 March: "We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability." Today, after 5 more days of relentless bombardment: 'Extensive damage' at Qatar industrial site as Iran retaliates for strike on gas field - BBC News ww.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?app-referrer=deep-link
bbc.co.uk
'Extensive damage' at Qatar industrial site as Iran retaliates for strike on gas field
Qatar's Ras Laffan refinery was among a list of sites Iran threatened would be targets after an earlier attack on its South Pars gas field facilities.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
"The world has become a very dangerous place because its most powerful country is under the control of a ten-year-old boy". From Francis Fukuyama open.substack.com/pub/persuasi...
open.substack.com
How Not To Do Regime Change
Nearly two weeks in, it’s clear just how ill thought-through Trump’s regional war is.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Government bonds - historically a safe bet … until they suddenly aren't cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Safe until crisis: What 300 years of wars reveal about government debt safety
Government bonds are widely viewed as safe assets, especially in times of recession and financial crisis. This column presents evidence from three centuries of US and UK history showing that wars and pandemic-scale emergencies have in fact consistently produced large real losses for bondholders, challenging the conventional notion that government bonds are safe assets.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Given Trump's relentless anti-NATO rhetoric, it's a delicious irony that the stark shortage of American mine counter-measure vessels is "in large part, because it has been able to rely on NATO allies to carry much of the MCM burden" www.fpri.org/article/2026...
fpri.org
The Mine Gap: America Forgot How to Sweep the Sea - Foreign Policy Research Institute
On the morning of April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts, an Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate cruising through the Persian Gulf, struck a mine. The
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
One of the weird things about Labour is that for a while now it has been squandering its once overwhelming support amongst younger voters in favour of pandering to pensioners who, ironically, disproportionately vote Rightwards www.ft.com/content/53f6... via @FT
ft.com
Labour must not lose my generation of voters
The defeat by the Greens in Greater Manchester demonstrates the danger of failing to address economic burdens
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Reposted by Hugh Pemberton
Helen Barnard @helenbarnard.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
He goes to a different school.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
If you're whining, you're losing
WSJ article
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Philip Taylor @philipjtaylor.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
That should get the campaign back on the rails. 🤡
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Judging by the engagement with Ed Davey's "Badger" post, it has gone down like a lead balloon 0/100
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Max Boot @maxboot.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
You know the war is going well when JD Vance’s allies are leaking that he was opposed to it all along. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
politico.com
Vance was ‘skeptical’ voice in White House on Iran strikes
White House officials revealed that the vice president made his opposition known in the leadup.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
"Iran can’t emerge from the war with a veto on oil flows from the Persian Gulf" trumpets a Wall Street Journal editorial. But of course it can - no amount of bombing can alter the geography of the Hormuz Strait. It's a mark of American hubris that they can't accept this
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Life is pretty difficult in free Ukraine, but across the front line in Russian occupied Ukraine things are far, far worse. Russian imperialism cares nothing for those it colonises engelsbergideas.com/notebook/rus...
engelsbergideas.com
Russia's empire of ruins
From blackouts in Kherson to water shortages in Luhansk, Russia’s new imperial domains in Ukraine’s occupied territories are in turmoil.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Robert Pape, one of the USA's foremost scholars specialising in the history of airpower, on Trump's Iran war: "The strikes that have killed Iran’s leadership demonstrated tactical mastery. Tactical mastery, however, is not strategy." Exactly so reader.foreignaffairs.com/2026/03/09/w...
reader.foreignaffairs.com
Why Escalation Favors Iran
America and Israel May Have Bitten Off More Than They Can Chew
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
"A wounded Iran may emerge from the current conflict even more determined to weaponize its residual nuclear capability to deter future attacks. This problem cannot be bombed away. ... The United States could emerge from this war militarily overstretched and depleted."
reader.foreignaffairs.com
What Is the Endgame in Iran?
Trump Needs to Figure Out What He Wants—and Quickly
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Britain exports 80% of the oil it extracts from the North Sea (and by the sound of it always has done). This substack from @edconway.bsky.social explains why. It's fascinating open.substack.com/pub/edconway...
open.substack.com
Why does Britain export 80% of its oil?
The answer is rather more interesting than you might have thought
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Pretty sobering for the US military that Iran has managed to severely damage one of its rare $1bn wide-aperture radars, the radar of one of just five state-of-the-art high altitude missile defence batteries, and sundry other military radars across the ME www.wsj.com/world/iran-i...
wsj.com
Iran Is Hitting the Radars That Underpin U.S. Missile Defenses
Tehran is carrying out many of the strikes with one-way attack drones.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Headlines not looking good for Trump on day 2 of his "victory is nearly complete" journey - this is the World News section of the Wall St Journal
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Munira Murza identifies a real problem, then demonstrates some key failings in British political culture: - shallow analysis of the problem - inability to take responsibility for or learn from past policy failures by your party - a glib proposed solution (Britain is not Singapore)
ft.com
The UK’s public leadership pipeline has fallen into disrepair
Institutions are failing to deliver basic commitments because of failures of leadership
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
In the FT, Gideon Rachman neatly sums up the flaw in Trump's "victory" plan - Iran gets a vote
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Putin had his "special military operation", Trump's Iran war is an "excursion"
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Trump thinks he can just declare victory over Iran and walk away unscathed. Delusional
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
It's no wonder @washingtonpost.com is haemorrhaging readers. With the middle east on fire, today its editorials are resolutely myopic - two decrying government interference in business, and one which at once wants to muzzle students and promote free speech. Sad to see it now so craven
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Iran's ability to close the straits of Hormuz has been an ever-present threat since 1979, yet "one week into President Trump’s war on Iran, the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s is cascading through the world economy." From WSJ www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Has our long-standing emphasis on a consumerist model of citizenship - emphasising citizens as recipients of security, not contributors to it - served to degrade national resilience? A thought-provoking, and beautifully written, post from Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie.bsky.social
open.substack.com
What to do when the sunlight hardens
Crisis makes the strongest case for a different kind of state.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
I disagree with things in this interesting piece by @chrisdillow.bsky.social , but his core contention is right: the modern Labour party lacks a theory of how modern capitalism works. And that's a major problem for a party which seeks to manage a capitalist economy open.substack.com/pub/chrisdil...
open.substack.com
Wanted: a new Blair
Labour needs a theory of capitalism.
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Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Simon Nixon here provides an excellent and succinct overview of the wider ramifications of Trump’s misjudged and incompetently prosecuted war on Iran open.substack.com/pub/nixons/p...
open.substack.com
The Ayatollah of The West
Now that Trump has anointed himself the new Supreme Leader of Iran, a few thoughts on where his crusade to bring peace to the Middle East via death and destruction from the sky may be heading
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