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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark

@howardoark.bsky.social
310 followers 123 following 4.6K posts
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 13h
Newport had a great point. OpenAI leveraged a methodology derived by a person to generalize a proof. Cool. But if AI is so smart, why isn’t it solving problems that would make OpenAI billions of dollars (better battery technology, flying cars, fusion, aging). podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...
podcasts.apple.com
Cal Newport: The AI Industry Is Betting On The Wrong Kind Of AI
Podcast Episode · Prof G Markets · October 9 · 1h 20m
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 17h
Executing Hasan on TV. Best case, strapped to a wheelchair and gagged he dies quickly without tons of blood. Worst case, his last words encourage jehad as he faces death bravely while most of the firing squad misses on purpose. Hegseth couldn't be stupider.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Naive question: with a $2T budget deficit doesn’t the Treasury have to sell an average of around $8B in bonds every single trading day? I realize the sales are lumpy. But $1B in sales don’t seem odd.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Ezra Klein interview, Debbie Millman talking about the Cyber Truck. She thinks it represents a coarsening of society.
Even worse than vulgarIs the world getting uglier
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
You’re implying they have something better to do with the money. Michael Jordan isn’t going to unretire.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Less demand for capital
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Coreweave and xAI yes, cash flow positive companies not so much. It’s amazing Oracle can borrow 1.7% over Treasuries
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I think 10% is the going rate for buying Nvidia chips
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Does make you wonder what Gav was thinking. At least he didn’t have children with her.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I do not sense the 10 year declining anytime soon
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
You can unsubscribe
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
It’s still a one-time shock isn’t it? Or are we expecting the crack spread to be $200 next month?
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The new 4th inflection point will be $200,000, 0.002%. Thank you for all your hard work
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Apropos of nothing m.youtube.com/watch?v=F7QR...
m.youtube.com
The Stand (opening scene)
YouTube video by DrPanzram
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Change of control just means the SpaceX board controls TSLA.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
An engineering firm hired a former Miss Orange County as a word processor and only found out she didn’t know how to type on day one.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
This morning in the California Central Valley
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I was thinking it was Ukraine
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Never in one myself, but I understand it’s like the Marine Corps so you have a built in support group for life. So, sure, have fraternities but let the university decide who gets in. Stanford tried that and the fraternities all left because, you know, they didn’t want to associate with dweebs.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
2028
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
If there’s a change of control the options vest and he has a $50B tax obligation.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Russia is a real threat to NATO
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Elmo will have to sell 10s of millions of shares when his bonus vests (January 28).
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
All I can say, Sonny, is that generations that live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. Also, kb’s were way more expensive in the 90s.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Tesla installed 46.7 gW-hrs of energy storage in 2025. They’ve deployed 35.6 GW-hrs so far this year. If they deploy the average of the first 3 quarters of 26 that would be a 1.6% increase in volume. But margins will be down by at least 25% YOY. Nice growth business they have there.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I hope it's true about fear of retribution is true and that he's been suffering for 10 years. I bet there are a lot of evil rats all around the country slowly dying waiting for the knock on the door.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
An man was just convicted in SF of raping and murdering a 15-year-old-girl in 1978. They identified him through DNA. The FBI tailed him to a Walmart 15 miles from his home where he was disposing of all his garbage that had his DNA on it (he'd been segregating it).
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Serves them right for using 123456 as their password
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The profile picture doesn’t quite match the sentiment.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
If you look inside they only have three circuit boards. You can fix them.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
youtu.be/ZVVvJjwzl6c?... terrific song - even if you don’t like country
youtu.be
Zach Bryan - I Remember Everything (feat. Kacey Musgraves)
YouTube video by Zach Bryan
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Tesla will need to sell 700,000 cars in q4 to get to 2 million, 506,000 to beat 2024 sales. Regardless, they won’t come close to 2024 profits ($2.04/share).
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
2 million would make Tesla the 16th largest automobile company, by cars sold, in the world. That’s pretty impressive (compared to Tucker and DeLorean). But BYD (1/12th of Tesla’s market cap) started selling cars two years after Tesla was founded and sold 4.5 million cars in 2025.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Who’s going to tell them he can’t?
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Two words - space elevator
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
If you can’t get energy here cost is irrelevant. The Google people think it’s possibly competitive at $100/kg to LEO.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
When people start going upside down on their mortgages supply will increase.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Is it a sale leaseback or pure sale?
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Explains the huge profits that Anthropic and OpenAI are generating.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Got a new follower today - proof that my pearls of wisdom dropped here on are getting traction.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Couldn’t avoid this
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Michael Green, CEO and CIO of Tier 1 Alpha Asset Management has a different view. He thinks the sell off is due to passive flows in bond funds (more in alt text). I wasn’t convinced but he was quite sure he was right.
“Bond Market Mechanics
Well, unfortunately, I think what it is telling us is that the mechanical properties, as you've heard me emphasize in prior discussions around passive investing, are now playing out in the bond markets. This is particularly problematic because the bond indices that passive vehicles reference was never designed as an investable product. It was not designed to represent a specific risk, which would be appropriate for investment.
Instead, it was designed to represent pure representation. What is the total quantity of bonds outstanding? That means, unfortunately, that there's very little thought that's actually going into this bond sell-off.
There's lots of narratives that exist around it, that the United States is running unsustainable deficits, or that France is running unsustainable deficits, or that debt to GDP is higher than it has been, and that somehow or another explains the sell-off that we're seeing. Unfortunately, that isn't borne out by the facts. If we look at a country like Australia, which has a low debt to GDP, it's experiencing the same sell-off.
You look at countries like Switzerland, which are also running deficits, they're experiencing very different behavior in their bonds, as is China, which[…]”

From Prof G Markets: Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying Opportunity, Sep 29, 2026
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/prof-g-markets/id1744631325?i=1000792158605&r=228
This material may be protected by copyright.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Of course he’s irate - Powell apparently isn’t stiffing his contractors like Trump would.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
So, how large a moat would FSD ever be if they get it to work?
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Personal taste, so there’s no “right” answer. But en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Ste...
en.wikipedia.org
Jim Steinman - Wikipedia
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Is there an issue with the theory that AI will vastly increase human well-being w/o any of the model builders profiting from it because the 9 models 95% as good as the very best model need to compete on price?
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
www.teslarati.com/delta-airlin... harsh, but fair
teslarati.com
Delta Airlines rejects Starlink, and the reason will probably shock you
In a pointed exchange on X, Elon Musk defended SpaceX’s uncompromising approach to Starlink’s in-flight internet service, explaining why Delta Air Lines walked away from a deal.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
At $20MM and 100 tonnes that’s $200/kg to LEO if they can’t reuse the upper stage. That’s probably cheaper than Falcon (depends on how many times they can reuse the booster) but it kills orbital data centers and SoaceX’s stonk.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I just heard a wealthy-looking guy in Manhattan (2 corgis, not going off to work) tell his companion that he, “…went to school in upstate New York.” I think Cornell may have suffered some brand damage.
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Howardoark - pronounced Howar-doark @howardoark.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The bot didn’t get it either
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