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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Yeah the recent $ACN results and guide are a good datapoint to support that thesis

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Careful on those Rivians - service centers are overwhelmed and QC issues on the new R2 are rampant (anecdotal)

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Many such cases - was just re-reading the NEE Q2, there is a ton of room to raise prices even relative to baseline inflation, and that flows through everywhere

NEE saying their typical customer bill today is 20% lower in real terms than it was 20 years ago.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Well that was fast. Not sure $MU is going to be able to keep those margins next year, let alone N5Y

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Sorry I was unclear - those figures are for BEP overall, not just the Westinghouse part

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

That said - BEPI, the preferred, currently at 7.63 yield (15.96 of 25par), seems like a great deal now - hard to see how you don’t get paid with that asset on the balance sheet

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Well based on Cameco’s earnings we know that Westinghouse lost $56 million so far this year, was barely profitable last year and posted a couple hundred million of loss in 2024. So, not clear!

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I mean, cash from ops basically flat since 2018, interest paid basically doubling year over year - the entity is structurally unprofitable. Based on Cameco’s calls (they own the other half of Westinghouse), it’s already been a disappointment and it earned just $58 million in 2025.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Yeah I think you’d clearly rather have the TIPS over the nominal 30y - 2.4% annual inflation seems like a reasonable O/U

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Latest Money Stuff has a little on this, podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m..., but it’s a global anomaly and represents a huge consumer surplus for US borrowers, but might be going away as people get better at personal finance/use AI. It’s a weird time!

podcasts.apple.com

Learn More Gooder

Podcast Episode · Money Stuff: The Podcast · September 4 · 38m

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Oh sure, but I mean SMH had a peak to trough drop of 50% as recently as 2022, and that’s all I mean by crash. A similar drop would take the index to where it was trading about a year ago, which isn’t all that unimaginable to me. And something like that could affect national sentiment on the tech

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Looks like SK and Samsung basically single-handedly pushing Korea into an outlier - wonder if/when we see a semi crash and a recession there, the attitudes flip to match

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Reposted by Helm Hammerhand Appreciator

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Basically, the United States is running short of key munitions because the insecure man-children running the country keep firing off expensive stand-off emotional support munitions as a desperate act of gender-affirming self-care. Alas, there are not enough TLAMs to make Trump or Hegseth into men.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

That’s the signal to short puts on $TLT

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

And there's a nice application to crime from the OP here too, where crime generally is clearly going down, yes, but the scale of crime (e.g. the administration, Musk) or the golden age of fraud or however you want to characterize whatever is happening nationally is clearly new and awful

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Sorry but is your point that racism and being a dumbass are modern inventions?

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Reposted by Helm Hammerhand Appreciator

Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Miller Lite stat o' the day 332,411,218 the number of books Dolly gave access to children through today a truly historically great American

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Fuck yes bud send our dumb asses into the abyss

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Reminds me of Buffett & Munger - acolytes (e.g. Combs) and worshippers (Pabrai, Blomstran) dramatically underperform and don’t even really seem to understand their idol at all.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

You just made me realize I would be a way better parent of my high schoolers if I was using Salesforce to keep track of all these many, many new one-off acquaintances I have (coaches, friends’ parents, specialists)

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

What a trade though - those ADRs are still at a 40% premium right? Issue some more!

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Well it’s the valuation that’s tricky right? At a 20% hypothetical operating margin (open question), a $2 trillion IPO target has them trading at 100x 2028E growing LDD. not a Zitron bankruptcy at all, but this still looks like it ends in tears for many if Anthropic is best in class economics

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

@jesawyer.bsky.social 's Pillars of Eternity handles this so well, with guns having meaningful scaling and efficacy tradeoffs. A real all-around triumph, but this aspect of the game in particular is so immersive and satisfying.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Or short the stock with an eye on political catalysts in late 2026 and again in 2028.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Yeah that’s fair but also sentences like this “By the early 2030s, space datacenters could be only ~30% more expensive than Earth-based datacenters, opening the door to the first scaled space datacenters as soon as the turn of the decade!” - just aren’t founded in reality.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

They also think space data centers are viable, so.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Yeah this chart doesn’t seem *quite* right

Microsoft Azure: Y/Y Revenue Growth by Component
Source: SemiAnalysis Tokenomics Model
sales@semianalysis.com
Indicative scenario: IF Microsoft contracts 3GW from SpaceX, fully live by YE2027 at $100M/MW/yr = $300B exit ARR
semianalysis
$90B
$8OB
$70B
$60B
$50B
$40B
$3OB
$20B
S1OB
SOB
179%
63%
CY2027: +$150B of GPT token revenue on a $217B base forecast (+69%)
Azure y/y growth peaks at 179% in 4Q27
178%
63%
153%
64%
118%
63%
86%
61%
55%
50%
40%
42%
1Q26
2Q26
3026
4Q26
1Q27
GPT tokens on SpaceX compute (Azure Foundry)
MSFT/OpenAl rev share
GitHub Al
2027
• Azure Foundry
GPT tokens on SpaceX compute are served through Azure Foundry -incremental to the base Foundry line, banded separately here. Illustrative, not a forecast.
Period-end MW: 100 (3Q26)> > 400> 800 → 1,400 → 2,100 > 3,000 (4Q27)
Amber %= Azure y/y incl. SpaceX upside Grey%= Azure y/y, base forecast ex-SpaceX
3Q27
• Al laaS
4Q27
Azure non-Al

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Lots of in the know finance folks were saying Bessent was smart, and like - this artifact did not originate from a thinker.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Just wait until you can say the same about a DUV machine

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Would love another crack at shorting $BE at 300

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

I could see $MSFT here. They’ll have good insight into the business climate for mid-adopters, and if it looks soft they’ll just cancel or push out their neocloud contracts.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Yeah more often than not, when the choice structure takes the form 50k or 10% chance at 1mil I take the 50k, even when I’m reasonable confident I have the facts right. So it goes.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Is this TPB taking the missing retail share or BTI?

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Also this guy is completing wrong, they’ve absolutely obliterated the exchanges and cut Medicaid, the two key parts of Obamacare.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Given his lifelong upset at the Normans Tolkien would have found it so much more offensive to have someone of Danish ancestry portray Aragorn, but they cast Viggo without a peep.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Yeah that’s true, and probably should have qualified that with “some firms”. I have a lot more confidence on the “bad for India macro” side then I do any individual firm making it work, but some will I expect. Then again IBM’s results this AM indicate a little impatience from the market on this q

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Good for the firms, possibly a complete disaster for employment/GDP

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Every time I see him post on the VIC, or that jgalt guy, I always think back to that. Not exactly superforecasters.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

We can just call a spade a spade. It’s a clear directive.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Atrocious referee. Worst of the cup so far, and his last display might take second place. A disgrace, and I’m French.

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Reposted by Helm Hammerhand Appreciator

Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 12/07/2026

Another Infantino fix. First England goal should have been a drop after the ball hit the camera wire, and the Norway goal should have stood. Gonna wallow in bitterness for a few days, and then support England.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Nice of them to ring a bell at the top this time around

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Absolutely - these commentators noting over and over how “X player was watching in the stands last World Cup” - so their parents took them to Qatar for a WC match? Not exactly a typical upbringing

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Man I did not really appreciate what was happening in Japan, that is nuts

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Micron flew way too close to the sun on this one.

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

You’re in luck, it’s been bid to a totally unreasonable level - short that shit! I am.

Global X MLP & Energy
Infrastructure ETF
NYSEARCA: MLPX
Follow
75.12 USD +38.45 (104.85%) + past 5 years

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Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Anyway that lower third of office jobs was already gradually getting offshored/unorlowpaid interned, etc. Readily apparent productivity gains are going to be tough to come by

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