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vegavandal.bsky.social @vegavandal.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

SemiAnalysis saying frontier labs can do $100 billion in revs per GW

Helm Hammerhand Appreciator @helmhammer.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Yeah this chart doesn’t seem *quite* right

Microsoft Azure: Y/Y Revenue Growth by Component
Source: SemiAnalysis Tokenomics Model
sales@semianalysis.com
Indicative scenario: IF Microsoft contracts 3GW from SpaceX, fully live by YE2027 at $100M/MW/yr = $300B exit ARR
semianalysis
$90B
$8OB
$70B
$60B
$50B
$40B
$3OB
$20B
S1OB
SOB
179%
63%
CY2027: +$150B of GPT token revenue on a $217B base forecast (+69%)
Azure y/y growth peaks at 179% in 4Q27
178%
63%
153%
64%
118%
63%
86%
61%
55%
50%
40%
42%
1Q26
2Q26
3026
4Q26
1Q27
GPT tokens on SpaceX compute (Azure Foundry)
MSFT/OpenAl rev share
GitHub Al
2027
• Azure Foundry
GPT tokens on SpaceX compute are served through Azure Foundry -incremental to the base Foundry line, banded separately here. Illustrative, not a forecast.
Period-end MW: 100 (3Q26)> > 400> 800 → 1,400 → 2,100 > 3,000 (4Q27)
Amber %= Azure y/y incl. SpaceX upside Grey%= Azure y/y, base forecast ex-SpaceX
3Q27
• Al laaS
4Q27
Azure non-Al