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Harold Brooks

@hebrooks87.bsky.social
4.7K followers 117 following 227 posts

Research meteorologist-tornadoes and forecast evaluation. Weather impacts. Volleyball referee-NCAA/PAVO, NFHS, USAV. Mathcounts competitive math coach.

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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
At 7 PM Central Time tonight (20 Jan), I'll be joining WeatherBrains to talk about the life and legacy of Chuck Doswell. It'll be live on their YouTube channel. www.youtube.com/@WeatherBrains
youtube.com
WeatherBrains
WeatherBrains is the original weather podcast; the first episode "dropped" in January 2006. We haven't missed a week since then! This is the show that unites weather geeks worldwide; we do our best t...
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
More NWS tornado warning trivia. In Oct 2003, the directive for duration changed from "should be 30 to 60 minutes" to 15 to 45 minutes. Plot shows pdf 4 years before and after official change. Early (late) 70.6% (70.6%) from 30 to 60, 66.9% (62.8%) from 15 to 45.
PDF of tornado warning duration from October 1999-Sept 2003, when directive said warnings should be from 30-60 minutes in duration, and Oct 2003-Sept 2007, when directive changed to 15-45 minutes in duration. Distributions show almost no change. Early (late) 70.6% (70.6%) from 30 to 60, 66.9% (62.8%) from 15 to 45.
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
@jimmyc42.bsky.social and I published a paper looking at NWS tornado warning performance up through 2016. doi.org/10.1175/WAF-.... Probably going to do an update after event data come in. Warnings available, so some trivia. When after the hour are warnings issued (2012-2024)?
Graph showing distribution of NWS tornado warnings by minute after the hour they're issued. More warnings issued just before 15, 30, 45, and 60.
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Now that 2024 death toll is probably final (54), here's an update to per capita US tornado deaths. Black dots are single year, red is smoother (5-pt running mean of 3-pt median). Log-scale. Large decrease from ~1925-~1995, relatively flat before and after that. Original is now 25 years old.
Graph showing US tornado deaths per million population from 1875-2024
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
OKC ends up with 9th warmest December (mean of daily maxes and mins-1890-2024). Station moved from urban location in 1947. Dropped from 37 to 35 from 10 PM to midnight to fall from 8th to 9th. 2021 50.7 1965 48.7 1939 46.3 1946 45.6 1931 45.5 2023 45.4 1933 45.3 2015 45.3 2024 45.2 1896 45.0
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
The song of my people.
Lament of the Federal Employee's Spouse by Lee Buchanan.
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Reposted by Harold Brooks
Cameron Homeyer @atmoscientist.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
📰Breaking News : the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology is hiring a tenure-track assistant professor in social and/or behavior sciences applied to weather and climate studies! Come work with us! apply.interfolio.com/158935
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
On the morning of 19 November 1930, a tornado killed 5 students and a teacher at Camel Creek Elementary in Bethany, OK. It's one of two times in Oklahoma history that deaths have happened at schools during the school day. The other was Plaza Creek Elementary in Moore on 20 May 2013.
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Oklahoma City (Will Rogers is the official ob site) started the day with 6.89 inches of rain for the month, 4th most for any November (record begins in 1891. Top 3 years 1931 9.63 1899 7.80 1902 7.25 0.17 through 6 AM, bringing the month to 7.06. Line of heavy rain approaching the ob site.
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
Update on OKC precip for November. As of 7 AM on the 4th, Will Rogers has had 4.83 inches of rain this month, 9th most for any November back through 1891. The top 8: 1931 9.63 1899 7.80 1902 7.25 1895 5.79 1994 5.72 2004 5.66 1964 5.46 1909 5.29
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
Unofficially, at 6 PM on 3 November, Will Rogers World Airport has recorded 4.22" of rain so far this month, making it the 14th rainiest November at Oklahoma City since records began in 1890.
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 22/10/2024
Poster at #31SLS is down now, but tried to start a discussion about developing an ethical basis for weather forecasting. Old school poster with conference attendees answering questions with sticky notes to get opinions.
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 30/05/2024
Anniversary of a piece I wrote about tornado safety. We still have issues with people giving bad advice that tornadoes aren't survivable if you're not underground. www.livingontherealworld.org/get-as-low-a...
livingontherealworld.org
Get as low as you can and put as many walls as you can between you and the tornado. - Living on the Real World
This guest post comes from Dr. Harold Brooks, a Senior Scientist in the Forecast Research and Development Division at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, and an AMS Fellow. A...
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 02/05/2024
A rose by any other name is out in final form. Fun with 3 elements of the 2x2 table. With Monte Flora and Mike Baldwin. One typo inserted by technical editor. Should a paragraph break before the last two sentences of abstract. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 26/03/2024
Now online at AMS_AIES, a paper on the variety of names given to the same quantities from the 2x2 table. "A rose by any other name...." doi.org/10.1175/AIES...
doi.org
A rose by any other name: On basic scores from the 2x2 table and the plethora of names attached to them
Abstract Forecast evaluation metrics have been discovered and rediscovered in a variety of contexts, leading to confusion. We look at measures from the 2x2 contingency table and the history of their d...
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Harold Brooks @hebrooks87.bsky.social · 25/03/2024
Today is the 66th anniversary of the Fawbush and Miller tornado forecast for Tinker Air Force Base, often called the first tornado forecast. These are the surface weather maps ~6 hours before (small bottom left hand corner) and ~6 hours after (large map).
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