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Reposted by H. Christoph Steinhardt

Steven Denney @stevendenney86.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

How do voters behave in democracies with unstable parties? In a newly published article in Party Politics, @pward89.bsky.social and I examine South Korea, a textbook case of an “ephemeral party system.” The article is Open Access. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

And an observational study showing strong and independent effects of populist voters switching because of welfare AND immigration concerns. (The authors, for whatever reason, misrepresent their massively underpowered interaction effects model.) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

The implosion of radical right populism and the path forward for social democracy: Evidence from the 2019 Danish national election

The collapse of the Danish People's Party (DPP) was pivotal for the Danish 2019 election since a substantial bloc of their previous voters moved to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). This provides an....

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

Interesting that Bluesky is certain that UK labor's right turn on immigration is doomed. A sharp right turn on immigration by Danish social democrats (yes, with a left turn on welfare) led them to pulverize the populist right. I do not know it will work, but the determinism in opinions is strange.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Fair enough though. No need to take this further. I am not trying to troll you.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

You may not like this on normative grounds, and I may not either. But I think we cannot simply dismiss this as irrelevant and declare that immigration restricting positions by socialist parties are doomed to fail.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

When you are a democratic party, shouldn't you be thinking about winning? Denmark may be the only case in Western Europe were a social democratic party not only adopted some anti immigration rethoric, but also enacted relevant policy. Subsequently the populist right was pulverized.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

The CDU/CSU adopted some anti-immigration language, but immigration policies remained essentially unchanged. If I were an anti-immigration voter, I would probably not be satisfied.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Sure. I did not claim that. I was wondering if the Danish case should compel us to critically evaluate if a combination of welfare politics + a serious restriction of immigration could be electorally successful.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

So what is the winning strategy then?

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Perhaps. Why would you say this strategy worked for Danish social democrats?

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Okay. What is your recommendation to socialist parties in Europe for winning back the working class, and winning elections again more generally. Honest question.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Blue labor = migration and woke sceptical working class politics? What are your examples of failure? It worked pretty well for the Danish social democrats, didn't it?

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Reposted by H. Christoph Steinhardt

Richard Branson @richardbranson.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

(1/4) It was America and Britain that guaranteed the sovereignty of Ukraine and its borders in return for persuading them to give up their nuclear weapons.

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Reposted by H. Christoph Steinhardt

Tim Krieger @timkriegerfr.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

"Destroying America's Brand" One way to think about this is to say that Trump is doing to America what Elon Musk is doing to Tesla, destroying a valuable brand through erratic behavior and repulsive ideology. Paul Krugman

open.substack.com

Destroying America's Brand

Losing the world's trust, and a lot of money too

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

What do the useful idiots, also called Trump-fan Chinese pro-democracy dissidents, say by now actually?

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Wir müssen wohl eher 10 neue Brigaden aufstellen, die in die Ukraine gehen.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Deal. And I'll show you how to write proper half-page Schachtelsätze.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Dear @posit.co, can you please invent an update button. 🙂

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

I wonder what incentivizes left-center governments, such as Vienna's, to promote gender neutral language. Public opinion is leaning heavily against it. Granted, Vienna's population is likely more accepting. But I still doubt this wins more voters than it is driving voters away.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

This is arguably part of Anglo-American soft power. From the perspective of the Chinese government, this must appear like a national security threat.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Author affiliations in a random sample of publications in 3 top China Studies journals. The dominance of Anglo-US scholars is remarkable. A whopping 48% of knowledge on China published in these journals was produced in the US, UK, AUS and CAN. Only 33% was produced in Mainland China or Hong Kong.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

European societies, Germany in particular, had 8 years to rethink their dillusional assumptions about the nature of the international system and the value of hard power. Now the hand wringing and panicking starts again...

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

Interesting initiative to highlight and critique the severe under representation of the Global South in German-speaking television news. weisses-rauschen.de/hero/202409P...

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Reposted by H. Christoph Steinhardt

Cornelius Dieckmann @codieckmann.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Merry Christmas from the Hong Kong government:

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

And by which mechanism is such a group going to make any inroads into China? The last time I looked at the map, it was a couple of thousand km away. And the last time I looked at China, it had one of the most capable security states on the planet.

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Reposted by H. Christoph Steinhardt

Andrea Ghiselli @andreaghiselli.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

Many great #Chinawatchers have joined BlueSky recently. So I’ve updated this large #starterpack with experts and journalists writing about #China ‘s #foreignpolicy, #economy, and #politics. Join, share, and follow! go.bsky.app/NZzqdpY

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

South Korea may have been closer to military rule than it initially appeared. 👇

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Good to know. In research that hopefully will see the light of the day soonish, I try to make the point that one key argument for surveillance in China has been that "society needs to be protected from itself."

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Right, Junius "fraternizing with triad hooligans" Ho.

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Reposted by H. Christoph Steinhardt

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

1/4 Either the consensus has become nearly unanimous, or the media are freezing out alternative views, but what some of us were arguing over a decade ago seems to have taken a firm hold of much of the economic reform discussion. www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-n...

yicaiglobal.com

China Needs Consumer-Focused Policies to Boost Demand, Think Tank's Head Says

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Some structural background behind the South Korea martial law event. 👇

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Reposted by H. Christoph Steinhardt

Steven Denney @stevendenney86.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law in South Korea, citing alleged anti-state activities by opposition forces. This extremely surprising move grants the military authority over civilian affairs. Why did this happen? Some context and thoughts are below. apnews.com/article/sout...

apnews.com

South Korean president declares emergency martial law, accusing opposition of anti-state activities

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has declared an “emergency martial law," accusing the country's opposition of controlling the parliament and paralyzing the government with anti-state activities.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

The central problem of social trust in China is that the supply of general trust has not kept pace with the rapidly growing demand for this valuable component of social capital. The real question is not why social trust declined (it did not), but why it grew so slowly.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

The phenomena that led to the notion of a trust crisis (apathy, refusals to help strangers, fraud) may have been driven by a mismatch between a rapidly growing structural demand for general trust, and a much slower growing supply of trust, and trustworthy behavior.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

What about the "trust crisis" then? Chinese society transformed from a “community of acquaintances” into a “society of strangers,” living in increasingly urban, complex environments. This requires higher levels of general trust and cooperation between socially distant people.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

All types of trust are strongly negatively related to negative externalities of China's transition (measured as perception of corruption and feeling of unsafety). Possibly, the positive effects from modernization have been “cancelled out”, leading to the sluggish growth of trust.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Contradicting previous research, we find that trust in most people and general trust (in strangers) are mostly positively correlated to measures of education, urbanization and wealth. However, particular trust (in neighbors) is negatively related to urbanization and wealth.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

This means trust in “most people” is biased downwards in individuals with more exposure to modernization (the more you think of strangers, the harder to trust). The indicator is thus unfit for studying the relationship between trust and dimensions modernization in China.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

While this is positive, it shows that the interpretation of “most people” is not stable. This is problematic for survey research. Even more problematic is that the radius widens with exposure to education and urbanization (i.e. modernization).

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

We also assess the radius of trust in “most people”: the extent to which survey respondents interpret “most people” to include strangers. Previous research has shown that the radius in China is narrow. We confirm this, but also find that the radius has widened over time.

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H. Christoph Steinhardt @hcsteinhardt.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Based on 11 national probability samples from two major surveys (1990-2020), we show that there was no decline of trust. For all indicators of trust - in “most people,” general trust (in strangers) or particular trust (in neighbors) - the means were stable with a slight upward trend.

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