Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 26/03/2026Do you think Borbe has done enough to lock down the starting keeper spot or is DvD just being slowly brought back up to health before reclaiming the #1 spot? 110
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 15/03/2026Hi Taylor! Please may I ask is there a historical archive of these reports somewhere week by week? I'm thinking about making a modelling project that takes this information to predict player minutes 111
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 13/03/2026Your first @fantasynwsl.com cheat sheet! Here are your odds-implied xG and clean sheet probabilities for the first gameweek's fixtures. #NWSL #NWSLFantasy 032
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 11/12/2025Morning, Tim. Have you got any news or a best guess for where this Arsenal/Leicester fixture will get moved to? Thanks! 100
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 05/11/2025Hi Tim - a great read, thanks very much! On the subject of Arsenal vs Leicester: do you have any info on when the reverse fixture is lining up to be rescheduled due to the clash with the FIFA champions cup? Cheers! 100
Reposted by Guy McCombeChloe @chloesainsbury.bsky.social · 15/07/2025Your fave women’s footie analytics gals (@cata-bush.bsky.social and myself, ofc) are at it again! Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀): open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...open.substack.com5 takeaways from the Women's Euro group stagesThe Women’s Euros kicked off at the start of July and Catalina Bush and I launched an online app using the Value Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP) framework. The app is being updated after ev... 183
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 03/06/2025Do you think Lyon might view her primarily as a long-term project to mold into that kind of box-crashing 10, perhaps to complement or eventually succeed Heaps? She's still young and might be worth a gamble on as an understudy, especially as a free? 110
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 01/06/2025Depends on how your data is stored (and what data you're using) but I like spinning up a metabase local open source environment for poking around my databases 010
Reposted by Guy McCombeandré, but scarier @andre-carlisle.bsky.social · 17/05/2025watchin soccer 820533
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 17/04/2025Hi Rouven, thanks for sharing it was a very interesting read. I'd be interesting in looking to extend your ANS model to incorporate it into my WSL model if you'd please be willing to share the code? 100
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 14/04/2025Thanks, Tim! Disappointed to see no official word on Russo & Kelly - do you have any info / best guess on when we might expect to see them next? 200
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 10/04/2025Yeah that's in there. I reckon the issue is probably how I'm handling quarter and whole goal spreads and totals. Thanks very much for your help! 120
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 10/04/2025To clarify: I'm optimizing to find λH and λA such that: 1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability 2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering 100
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 10/04/2025Yeah I think that's pretty much I what I had. Thanks for confirming - back to the drawing board for me I suppose! 100
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 09/04/2025Hi Nils, please can I ask how you derive your goal estimates from the handicap and goal lines? I'm trying to get it by inverting the poisson and skellam distributions but my subsequent models don't seem to fit very well. 100
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 04/04/202510's a bit high. I don't have the data in front of me but I think there's often a 7-8 pointer up for grabs 010
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 04/04/2025📊 GW31-33: Top Assistant Manager Projections: GW31: Brentford & West Ham lead (mean ~9.5) GW32: Palace and Newcastle top the chart (~13 & 12.5 resp.) GW33: Arsenal are clear (~15.5 points) Data: 100k sims based on @elevenify.com team ratings 1102
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 31/03/2025Best guesses for where the champions league clashing WSL fixtures will be rearranged to? 100
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 29/03/2025Is McCabe suspended for Palace for a 5th yellow or does whatever happened against Chelsea not count as a yellow? Cheers 😃 000
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 28/03/2025this is unusual 😂 my friend found your Transfer Flow newsletter and she keepss telling me about your Variance Betting returns. she's too worried to dm u so pls can you message her? don't tell her I sent this or she will kill me lmao 😭 she really wants to know how to break into football analytics 030
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 19/03/2025Not dating app related but perhaps something you might want to cover - how can I share this podcast series with my friends to attempt to improve our relationship (like in ep.0) or to wean them off the redpill pipeline and improve their dating without saying: "I think you suck and this will fix you" 200
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 24/02/2025No of course there isn't 😂 You're welcome to lift my table calculation part from my simulator if what you're doing is python based. Just DM and I'll point you to it ☺️ 000
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025Nothing else from me, they distribute the same as Palace but slightly worse I think 000
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025Ah yes I get you now. I think all numbers within the bars are technically possible but certainly not equally likely and are distributed like your numbers there 100
Reposted by Guy McCombeGuy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025Glasner vs Arteta: As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you! 282
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025Glasner vs Arteta: As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you! 282
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025Well it depends on whether you want to risk it for the higher ceiling by picking Glasner 110
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere? 250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile. Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com 4294
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 20/02/2025📊 GW26 Projections: Pick your Poisson Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02) The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds 2344
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 18/02/2025📊 AM25 Live: Following Villa's surprise draw vs IPS, Emery trails Slot by 4. However, that would change if they pull off an upset of their own against Liverpool. Fittingly a draw (22%) results in almost no difference in points, whereas a decisive result is, well, decisive. Data: @elevenify.com 050
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 18/02/2025Yeah will do - I'll hold fire until after Villa/Liverpool for obvious reasons 010
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 18/02/2025And before anyone asks to see the Leicester distribution instead: 261
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 18/02/2025📊 GW26: Arteta vs Glasner Similar means, vastly different distributions: Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer. Odds data via @robtfpl.com 4276
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 13/02/2025Head-to-head: Slot vs Emery in GW25 📊 Slot favoured (~61%) to score more points than Emery, but there's still plenty of upside for Emery. He beats Slot by at least 15 points in more than 17% of sims. The expectation however, is that Slot wins by ~1.7 points. Based on 1M sims via @elevenify.com 0352
Reposted by Guy McCombeelevenify @elevenify.com · 09/02/2025Fantasy Frameworks 💡 A new resource for members. 23+ Frameworks. 6,000+ Words. This will make you a better #FPL manager. www.elevenify.com/p/fantasy-fr...elevenify.comFantasy FrameworksTools for making better decisions. 4487
Reposted by Guy McCombeGuy McCombe @guymc.com · 04/02/2025A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴 24410
Guy McCombe @guymc.com · 08/02/2025Early look at GW26 projections: I will not be riding the Leicester rollercoaster Will update closer to deadline when form/injury data is fresher. 161
