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Guy Burton

@guyburton.net
569 followers 3K following 469 posts

Recovering academic. Taught politics. Written some books. Occasional commentator. Now making podcasts. Looking for opportunities in Brussels. www.guyburton.net

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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 17/09/2026
Here's some other commentary from me about the BRICS after last weekend's summit. This time an interview for Astro Awami TV's Amirul Aiman in Malaysia. international.astroawani.com/video/us-pre...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 15/09/2026
I was quoted in @aljazeera.com on BRICS before last weekend's summit. My main points were: The 'West' is breaking down, so it's unclear what BRICS would even challenge. On Iran: membership gives Tehran a platform - but members aren't aligning with it. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/...
aljazeera.com
BRICS summit: Is the bloc truly challenging a Western-dominated world?
Some experts say BRICS need not replace the West to succeed - only make Western dominance harder to exercise.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 02/09/2026
Without saying your age, what’s your favorite movie that came out when you were 20 years old?
static.klipy.com
Trainspotting: Renton's Manic Smile
ALT: Trainspotting: Renton's Manic Smile
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 28/08/2026
US-Iran may be becoming a “forever war”: recurring military confrontation, pauses and diplomacy, then renewed confrontation and economic pressure. Not quite war, not quite peace. My latest thoughts today in the @southchinamorningpostrss.newsmast.social.ap.brid.gy: www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
Hormuz deal presses pause on Iran conflict, but fears of ‘forever war’ remain
Tehran is likely to stick to its guns in the hopes that the US midterms will bring about a Republican defeat, analysts say.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 10/08/2026
US policy towards Iran has shifted from deterrence to compellence. The 2026 war shows the costs of that shift — and its failure to deliver. I explore what this means for Trump’s options in my new article for CEBRI-Journal, Brazil’s leading public policy journal. cebri.org/revista/en/a...
cebri.org
Why Deterrence and Compellence Failed Against Iran
War Reflects a Failure of Coercion?
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 30/07/2026
This was too important a story not to discuss, so co-host @drfrancescobelc.bsky.social squeezed time in from his holidays to join me and talk about it.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 22/07/2026
It's been a fun season, doing the @footpolpodcast.bsky.social with @drfrancescobelc.bsky.social. We've had great guests talk to us about football and politics this year. We're off on a well earned summer break, but we already have plans for new episodes, topics and guests come September. Stay tuned!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 22/07/2026
This was our last episode of the season. There was a lot to get through and @drfrancescobelc.bsky.social kept me on my toes as I wanted to get it all in within a limited amount of time. I think we did it justice, but we'll let you be the judge of that! Have a listen and let us know what you think.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 20/07/2026
Reflecting on the morning after the night before and thank goodness Spain won. We could get into the politics of it all (and I'd still plump for Spain), but really, Argentina were just a thuggish bunch who chose to shithouse rather than play.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 20/07/2026
Our latest @footpolpodcast.bsky.social episode is out! We recorded before the knockout stage and before the biggest controversies. But if anything, they just reinforce the points Gaby made. Personally, I think FIFA is working as intended... But that's not necessarily good for players or fans.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 06/07/2026
A bit of a change from the World Cup, but still an incredibly important topic and I'm glad that we were both able to cover it and with @cmrobertz.bsky.social do it real justice. Do listen and let us know what you think!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 02/07/2026
My latest commentary for @eastasiaforum.bsky.social is out. China isn’t mediating the US–Israel–Iran war because it isn’t trying to. Its Middle East strategy is commerce first, not security leadership. A key risk though is prolonged disruption in Hormuz. Do read! eastasiaforum.org/2026/07/01/c...
eastasiaforum.org
China gains by standing aside in the Iran War
Despite its growing influence in the Middle East, China has largely remained on the sidelines of the Iran war, prioritising economic ties over security leadership.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 24/06/2026
This is a big deal for us. Podcasts are saturated with football content, but ours is very different. We've found our audience and the reviews have been kind. But we want to achieve more. If you can help us do it by listening, sharing and subscribing, it would really help! www.buzzsprout.com/2253650/
buzzsprout.com
The FootPol Podcast
The podcast that brings together football and politics. We'll be exploring the relationship between the two, both inside and outside the game.The podcast covers "Big Politics" like politicians, clubs,...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 23/06/2026
The dominant narrative says Ukraine is gaining the upper hand and Russia is weakening. But what if that's the wrong way to read the war? In the latest Ten Minutes On..., I argue the conflict may be heading towards escalation, not resolution. 🎙️ www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 22/06/2026
Our new episode is out! And it's a timely one, given that we're into the World Cup where we've already seen empty seats as a result of the excessive pricing. So it's just as well that we had @moneill94.bsky.social come and explain to us why this points to football's "enshittification." Do listen!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 16/06/2026
Switzerland held a referendum. Northern Ireland saw protests and disorder. Same underlying issue: migration. Why do similar pressures produce such different political outcomes? That's the question I explore in this week's Ten Minutes On… podcast. www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 11/06/2026
Yes, I know Pique divides opinion but I have a soft spot for him. 1986 was the first World Cup I followed. I'm still working out the trauma of England's defeat to Argentina and Brazil going out on penalties to France—which led my 8-year old sister to ask if they could play the game again!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 09/06/2026
The World Cup starts this week. But do tournaments like this actually transform countries? In the latest Ten Minutes On... episode, I explore the economics, politics and legacy of mega-events—from Barcelona 1992 to USA 1994 and Mexico 1986. 🎧 Listen now. www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 08/06/2026
The World Cup starts this week and our latest @footpolpodcast.bsky.social episode is out this week, covering the subject. Unfortunately, I was away when it was recorded, so my co-host @drfrancescobelc.bsky.social did a fantastic job doubling for us both! Do have a listen!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 02/06/2026
Ebola is back in the DRC. But this isn't just a health story—it's about conflict, aid cuts, weak institutions and global health security. In 10 minutes, I explain why this outbreak matters and what it tells us about future crises. 🎧 www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis... ▶️ youtu.be/BAVr09DRbio
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 26/05/2026
I'm catching up on last week, which includes my most recent article for @apsamena.bsky.social on AI in the Gulf and its effort to offer a "Third Option" between the US and China. It was mostly written before the Iran war, so some of the ambitions may face tempering. zenodo.org/records/2019...
zenodo.org
Building AI Capacity Between Beijing and Washington: The Gulf's China Strategy
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 26/05/2026
A bit late from me, owing to the long weekend and having friends visiting, but I am grateful to @tomthehack.bsky.social for including my words alongside George Cafiero and Dania Thafer in his article on UAE-Israel relations amid the Iran war. www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
Israel thrusts a reluctant UAE into the open over defence ties
Disclosures about Iron Dome batteries and secret meetings have exposed ties analysts say the UAE would rather handle ‘more discreetly’.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 26/05/2026
Pakistan was never supposed to be the key mediator between the US and Iran. So why has Islamabad suddenly become central to Middle East diplomacy? New episode of Ten Minutes On… examines Pakistan’s risky geopolitical balancing act. www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis... #Pakistan #Iran #Geopolitics
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 25/05/2026
This was a great one to record. Living just inside France, it's great to know more about the game in the country here. And @jonathanervine.bsky.social was a really informative guest!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 19/05/2026
What if Washington no longer wants Cuba’s regime to collapse? After Venezuela and Iran, the US may fear chaos, migration and failed-state collapse more than Havana itself. 🎧 Podcast: www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis... ▶️ YouTube: youtu.be/NGyjtFBjBbk?...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 14/05/2026
My contribution on the Trump–Xi meeting: why expectations of a decisive geopolitical turning point may be overstated. The real story is in structural US–China rivalry, strategic ambiguity over Taiwan, trade tensions & uncertainty around US policy coherence. themedialine.org/top-stories/...
themedialine.org
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Tests Leverage on Trade, Taiwan, Iran - The Media Line
US President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on […]
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 12/05/2026
Britain’s local elections poses a key question: what happens when electoral systems no longer reflect fragmented societies? New episode of Ten Minutes On… explores democracy, legitimacy & electoral reform from the UK to Canada, France, Japan, Chile & beyond. www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 11/05/2026
Our latest @footpolpodcast.bsky.social episode is now out. It's a great complement to tyhe other 3 we've done on World Cup debutants, in which we dig beyond what's happening on the pitch to get a sense of the country itself: its history, politics, society, economy as well as football development.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 01/05/2026
Not everyone can be a “science Kardashian.” Visibility may bring funding and opportunities, but many equally capable researchers remain unseen. This isn’t just about effort - it’s structural. Celebrity logic elevates a few and leaves the rest overlooked. www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...
ifo.de
Do Science Kardashians Get Citation Premium? Self-Fulfilling Effects of Social Media on Citations | ifo Institute | CESifo
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 28/04/2026
I have a New Ten Minutes On episode out today, on El Niño 2026–27 and why it matters. How a climate event can intensify extreme weather, disrupt food production, and raise global prices—especially amid current geopolitical tensions. Listen here: www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 27/04/2026
Our latest FootPol Podcast episode is out. Ever since reading Graham's @foreignpolicy.com article back in December, I knew we had to get him on. He gives us an account of what Froer got right and what he missed out: understandable given the 20 years that have passed since his book. Do listen!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 21/04/2026
This whole Mandelson business is so laboured and tedious. Bottom line: No 10 wanted him in, regardless of vetting. It was a political decision, not a failure of process. Does that need a paper trail? Pinning it on civil servants is just deflection. Why can't they admit they got it wrong?
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 21/04/2026
My new podcast episode: Ten Minutes On… After Berlin Last week’s Sudan conference highlights a bigger issue—global humanitarian aid is falling short just as needs hit record levels. Why is funding shrinking, and what does it mean for crises worldwide? www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 20/04/2026
I was asked by @tomthehack.bsky.social what the Houthis may do in response to the US blockade of Iran and what options are available to the US in his latest @scmpnews.bsky.social article here: www.scmp.com/week-asia/po... My response:
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 15/04/2026
I was quoted in this @scmpnews.bsky.social by Fan Chen on whether the US is trying to get China into its war wtih Iran. Short answer: I don't think so, at least not directly. For more, here's the link: www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
scmp.com
Is the US trying to pressure China with Hormuz blockade?
Speculation has been circulating that Washington’s aim is to force Beijing to put pressure on Tehran to strike a peace deal.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 14/04/2026
Back after Easter and I have a new 10 minute podcast episode for you. I look at the economic impact of the US–Israel war on Iran , how it's driving oil prices, inflation & weaker global growth — and why the IMF is warning of a worsening outlook. Listen here: www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 13/04/2026
We're back! Our new @footpolpodcast.bsky.social episode looks at football in Jordan, from the historic divisions of the Al-Faisaly/Al-Wehdat rivalry to the unity of the national team and its success in qualifying for the World Cup. We also cover football in refugee camps and among women. Do listen!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 12/04/2026
On February 27 the Strait of Hormuz was open. US & Israel go to war against Iran. Iran responds by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US demands a ceasefire and talks. They don't go well. Now the US is talking about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Who is for opening the Strait of Hormuz?
media.tenor.com
a man with a beard and a hat is standing in front of a row of empty seats .
ALT: a man with a beard and a hat is standing in front of a row of empty seats .
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 10/04/2026
I should probably put this out there again. It's a short primer I did a few weeks back ahead of the election in Hungary this weekend. Do listen!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 31/03/2026
New episode 🚨 Courts are starting to treat Big Tech differently: not as platforms hosting content, but as systems designed for harm. Meta rulings this week could reshape liability, regulation & platform design. 🎧 www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis... #TechPolicy #BigTech #AI
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 30/03/2026
This is well worth listening to! Sandeep gave a really insightful look at football in India, which takes us away from the elite level to examine how it is embraced in local communities, including marginalised areas of India. I always enjoy these episodes, as they open a door into less studied areas!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 27/03/2026
I was interviewed by Fan Chen for her @scmpnews.bsky.social piece on the Iran war and the prospects for the regime's durability a few days ago. www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
scmp.com
Not like Venezuela: why Iran is likely to survive US-Israeli strikes
Islamic Republic’s government is expected to prove resilient despite attacks that have targeted many of its top leaders.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 24/03/2026
This week: Orbán blocks EU support for Ukraine. New episode of Ten Minutes On… steps back from the news to explain the bigger picture: how the “Orbán model” works, why it’s lasted & if it’s starting to crack ahead of Hungary’s election. www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis... #Hungary #EU #Politics
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 23/03/2026
We've brought out a new @footpolpodcast.bsky.social episode! @drfrancescobelc.bsky.social and I update you in our latest episode on Iran and the World Cup, the women players' asylum decisions in Australia and CAF's decision to award the AFCON trophy to Morocco. It's been a busy week!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 17/03/2026
Hormuz is closed—and global trade feels it fast. In my latest Ten Minutes On…, I look at the world’s key chokepoints—from Suez to Malacca to Panama—and why disruptions here ripple across energy, supply chains & prices. Why these narrow routes matter more than ever. www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 16/03/2026
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 16/03/2026
This was an interesting one to do and came off the back of a listener recommendation. Do have a listen and if you like it, do contact us with other suggestions as well!
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 15/03/2026
I was interviewed by @tomthehack.bsky.social for his latest @scmpnews.bsky.social article on the challenges facing Gulf states after the Iran war here: www.scmp.com/week-asia/ec...
scmp.com
Why the Iran war marks a turning point for Gulf-Asia trade
The closure of the Middle East’s important straits – Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb – is forcing Gulf and Asian nations to explore other options.
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 10/03/2026
New episode of Ten Minutes On… 🎙️ The Hidden Costs of the Iran War Modern wars burn through missiles and interceptors faster than they can be produced. I look at US stockpile pressures, drone warfare, and the wider geopolitical and economic consequences. www.buzzsprout.com/2354388/epis...
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Guy Burton @guyburton.net · 03/03/2026
We felt this was an important episode to do. In it we catch up on the latest news regarding the football-related fallout from the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and what it could mean for Iranian participation at the World Cup in the US in June. Please do listen and share it with others.
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