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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

It's a possible sign of optimism in the stock market, but it's a short-term, pragmatic signal with no basis in the real economy.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

It's a possible sign of optimism in the stock market, but it's a short-term, pragmatic signal with no basis in the real economy.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

It's a possible sign of optimism in the stock market, but it's a short-term, pragmatic signal with no basis in the real economy. I'm not hoping for anyone to lose their job—this is simply an analysis from the specific perspective of the stock market.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

🌐📈 US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's recent positive comments had minimal market impact. However, the JOLTs report provided optimism: a rise in layoffs suggests a weakening labor market, increasing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. All eyes are now on Trump's speech at 1 AM. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

🌐📈 Higher tariffs drive up consumer prices by increasing the cost of imported goods, fueling inflation. Yale’s model shows the recent tariff hike could boost inflation by 1.7–2.1% in 2024. Such regressive measures hit lower-income groups hardest and could dampen GDP growth. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

🌐📈 The ISM Manufacturing report revealed a sharp decline in orders with prices rising. The Fed is in a bind: easing policy would fuel inflation, while their mandate targets inflation and the labor market—not growth. Fed officials are now relying on cautious rhetoric to ease concerns. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

🌐📈 Markets plunged alongside a falling dollar—a rare and alarming sign. The Atlanta Fed cut its US GDP forecast from 2.8% to 1.5%, signaling a potential severe slowdown in the US economy. When the safe-haven currency drops with risky assets, it raises red flags. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

🌐📈 Nonfarm Payroll is expected to trigger high volatility. The report will revise 2024 job figures by excluding undocumented migrants— a technical adjustment that could spark unexpected market moves. Buckle up. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 25/01/2025

He is pragmatic, and in the mid-term, I expect a slowdown in deficit growth. That said, he is unpredictable...

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

🌐📈 Trump claims he knows better than the Fed on rate cuts and expects the Fed to heed his advice. This devalues the Fed's role, suggesting that markets may now follow Trump's stance on monetary policy instead of the Fed's. This will be a significant shift in market dynamics. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

🌐📈 Markets cracked today due to three main factors: 🔹 Trump actively pushing his foreign and economic policies shocked investors, leading to risk aversion 🔹 ISM Services report showed rising prices 🔹 JOLTs job openings surged, making Fed rate cuts unlikely #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

🌐📈 Important news starts January 7. Ahead of Trump's inauguration, numerous reports will cause volatility in traditional markets. Markets fear Trump's presidency and the inauguration as negative events, expecting a decline by January 20 and a flight from risk assets. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

🌐📈 Two main factors could significantly drop the market after Trump's inauguration: 🔹 Introduction of tariffs negatively impacting economic indicators and scaring investors 🔹 More transparent early-year reports without presidential pressure, giving Trump a low base advantage #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

🌐📈 Fed Chair Powell affirmed that the Federal Reserve cannot hold Bitcoin and has no plans to change this policy. This stance underscores the Fed’s commitment to traditional monetary tools and highlights its cautious approach toward integrating cryptocurrencies into the financial system. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

🌐📈 Fed meeting was tougher than expected. Powell announced a new phase with slower rate cuts, forecasting two in 2025. Significant dissent among FOMC members shows that higher inflation or a stronger job market could have prevented yesterday rate cut. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

🌐📈 US factory gate prices rose 0.4% in November, surpassing expectations (0.2%), while jobless claims surged to 242K, exceeding forecasts (220K). These weaker-than-expected reports cast doubts on Fed rate cuts in 2025. However, a December rate cut remains highly probable at 98%. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Interviews are only approximations. Actual numbers are rising.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

🌐📈 US consumer inflation met forecasts, boosting the probability of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in December to 95%. The market valued stable inflation to support rate cuts, despite earlier fears of a slight rise. Tomorrow’s producer inflation report is expected to have a weaker impact. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

🌐📈 The market awaits US consumer inflation reports amid worrying forecasts. Inflation is likely to rise, and yesterday market largely priced in these expectations, reflecting current sentiment. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

🌐📈 The US economy added 227K jobs in November, surpassing expectations. Despite the strong report, the market remained steady and bets on December Fed rate cut (86% probability). This surge in confidence might stem from anticipated data revisions or a final rate cut before Trump. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

Well, market bets 86% vs 14% now

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

🌐📈 The FOMC Beige Book indicates a stable economy, making a December Fed rate cut very likely (market expectation at 72%). However, tomorrow's Nonfarm Payroll report could significantly adjust these expectations. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

🌐📈 Real estate data suggests a balanced Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. The ISM services report was mixed: weak indicators but service prices remain steady. Powell indicated Fed rate cuts next year will be slower than most investors expect. The December Fed meeting outlook remains uncertain. #EconSky

google.com

Powell Addresses Shadow Chair Proposal, Reiterates the Fed Isn’t in a Rush to Cut Rates

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed the central bank’s independence, the economy, inflation, and more in his final public comments before the central bank’s last rate-setting meeting this ye...

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

🚨 Breaking News: South Korean President Yoon has declared martial law in response to escalating tensions within the region. Another hotspot just emerged as if we have not enough... 🇰🇷 www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

reuters.com

South Korea President Yoon declares martial law

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday declared martial law in an unannounced late night address broadcast live on YTN television.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

🌐📈 This week: Strong ISM Manufacturing (Mon), JOLTs Job Openings (Tue), Powell's Speech (Thu), and Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri). Market expectations for December rate cuts (up to 74.5% from 52.3%). But robust economy might prevent Fed cuts to avoid overheating, triggering a market correction. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

IMHO it's 'because' and not 'while'. Stong economy reduces unemployment and drives salaries triggering inflation.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

I'm not a Trump supporter. In fact, I don't even into politics. What bothers me is that Biden actually promised not to do it. He has broken his own promise.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Did pardon his son because he is innocent or because he is Biden'n son. ihmo, you can't pardon someone before being charged

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

President Joe Biden pardoned his son Hunter, breaking a summer promise not to do so. Hunter could have faced up to 25 years for illegal weapon possession and tax violations. Politicians have never been ashamed, but previously they tried to hide it. www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo...

whitehouse.gov

Statement from President Joe Biden | The White House

Today, I signed a pardon for my son Hunter. From the day I took office, I said I would not interfere with the Justice Department’s decision-making, and I

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Market strongly expects rate cuts. Should they stay where they are, it will disappoint and might initiate correction.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

🌐📈 Nonfarm Payroll data expected next Friday to be positive, potentially triggering a market correction. A strong labor market could hinder Fed rate cuts in December. Indications from last weeks reports suggest robust NFP, possibly leading to a market decline as early as Thursday. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

And it begins! 🚀 OpenAI takes a bold yet expected step, blending search and AI with its new browser extension. Move over, Google – ChatGPT enters the arena. Will it redefine search with conversational answers or become another fruitless challenge to Google's throne? 🔍💡 #OpenAI #AI

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

I'm not to protect Trump's ambitions, but lets not forget that US is the largest export partner for China and the largest economy in the world.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Don't underestimate overconfident individuals.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

The GBP lacks the scale to replace the USD, and the EUR is faces weak European leadership.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

That is part of the problem: people have short memories and tend to remember bold moves, while often forgetting the results.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

quiet😉 they might be listening

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Don't forget that, in this case, he is facing opponents of the same type on the other end.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

🌐📈 Trump is not even trying to avoid confrontation and is betting high. He states, "The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar is OVER." He threatens "100% Tariffs" and warns BRICS to "wave goodbye to America" if they try to replace the USD. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

I'm not an expert, just trying to understand things for myself and have some opinions on certain topics. What exactly are you interested in?

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

I’m struggling to understand what’s happening right now—it’s beyond anything I could have imagined.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

🌐📈 Due to Thanksgiving there are no major releases today. Attention turns to the international arena. New military actions in the Middle East are raising concerns, potentially pushing oil prices higher and challenging expectations for a positive Fed stance. #EconSky

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

The real estate bubble presents potentially an even larger concern, as even high-income families are finding it difficult to purchase property. If buyers are unable to afford homes, demand will drop, leading to a decrease in property values.

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Oleg Gutyrchik @gutyrchik.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Current price divided by total earnings per share for the last 12 months

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