Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Two constituencies in Prague have yet to report a result, and are thus not yet included in my projection. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10/10/2026With about half of the votes counted, here is my projection of the Czech Senate election. STAN has an extremely strong showing heading into the second round next week. ANO is the largest party, but is relatively weaker in the Senate compared to the 2025 election. 170
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Update: As things are right now, ANO likely will only get a plurality of the vote in two Senate constituencies. It's too early to say exactly how things ends, as it will make it to the run-off in about 12 constituencies. But thus far, its opportunities for gains are limited. 020
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Update: The earliest numbers from the Senate election are very good for Mayors and Independents (STAN). It looks set to get both a strong vote share (in line with current opinion polls) and a lot of candidates making the second round, or even elected outright. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10/10/2026In the Senate, whose potential second round run-offs will be held next week, 27 seats are up. Here is an overview of the main candidates and what parties are supporting each candidate. The incumbent (if any) is underlined, with the nominating party being color-coded. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10/10/2026I will post an analysis of the results once they become known, but before that I want to share the overview I have made for myself in order to keep track of the various lists and alliances that are running. Shown below are the main electoral lists in the 13 regional capitals. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Today the Czech municipal elections and staggered Senate election is happening, with polling places closing right now. In the Senate the opposition is defending 26 of the 27 seats up, while at the municipal level, the election will be a test of the strengths of the parties. 161
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026In this election, Sánchez needs to return to the situation he was in before the 2023 election, where back then the polling looked poor. In other words, the gap simply is very large. And the gap is also larger in the most reliable polls. 030
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Yes, him managing to hold on in 2023 was a surprise to many, including myself. But the situation is materially different now. Back then the left-wing actually had the votes it needed. The question was just the question of vote consolidation and reaching 176 seats. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026So to reiterate, I do not think Sánchez will be able to remain Prime Minister after the election. While it cannot be completely ruled out that he gets re-elected, the path is extremely uphill for him. I find it unlikely that he can win over enough voters. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Here is a mathmatical example (emphasize example) of what a Sánchez win could look like. Note how the PSOE merely being larger than PP is not enough to deny Feijoo a majority. It also needs Vox to perform worse than polls and the left as a whole to do reasonably well. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026By my calculations, to deny the right-wing a majority (like in 2023), he needs to flip about 5.7% or so of the vote. This calculation is of course subject to a lot of uncertainty, but it is in approximately that range, as it also was in 2023. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Vote consolidation alone is not enough for Sánchez to win. He also needs the left-wing to win a significant share of the votes from the right-wing. Either by convincing voters currently intending to vote for PP or Vox, or by mobilizing those not currently intending to vote. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026The amount of seats gained from PP and Vox through a merger is larger, the more votes Sumar/Podemos are set to get. By my calculations, up to 9 seats can be netted just from the joint list alone, if such a joint list performs well. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Overall, if Podemos joins Frente Amplio, then that nets the combined list 6 seats compared to running separately (i.e. 20 in total), about half of which is likely to be gained from PP and Vox. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026It's up in the air what happens in Valencia and the Balearic Islands, where regional parties have said they don't want to join Frente Amplio. The most likely outcome is that separate alliances are made there, like what happened in e.g. 2016 for the left-wing. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026It seems the first will happen, at least for most of the country. The negotiations are still ongoing, but it is shaping up to be the case that Podemos will join Frente Amplio (similar to how it was part of Sumar in 2023). If it runs alone, I think Sánchez loses then and there. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026For Sánchez to deny the right-wing a majority, he needs two things to happen: 1) The left-wing vote must be sufficiently consolidated, and 2) Gain a significant share of the vote from the right-wing, by my calculations about 5.5% or so. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026My own view is that Pedro Sánchez likely loses the election, and that Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) becomes Prime Minister. But I do think the election will be closer than some might think. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/10/2026I want to put out my thoughts about the upcoming Spanish election. Here is my current projection (based on polls) of how the election would turn out, if it was held today. The overall picture is that the right-wing (PP, Vox, UPN) currently has a clear majority of seats (203). 173
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Update: What I wrote still essentially applies, but if anything the gap will end up being smaller than it initially looked like. Lula's vote share will increase by a couple of percentages, while Bolsonaro's will decrease. bsky.app/profile/gust... 050
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 04/10/2026The reason Bolsonaro's vote share will ultimately fall, can be explained relatively simply: The southern states that are more right-leaning are currently counting faster than the northern states, that are more left-leaning. 020
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 04/10/2026In the Brazillian election, with 10% of electoral sections counted, Flavio Bolsonaro is clearly overperforming the expectations. According to my calculations, he will not win outright in the first round, but will get more votes than Lula and be the favorite in the second round. 110
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 04/10/2026In the Latvian election that was held yesterday, the last seat in the Riga constituency was decided by just 7 votes(!) Had PROGRESĪVIE (P) gotten 7 fewer seats, AS would have won the last seat instead. A good example of how every single vote sometimes matters in an election. 083
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 21/09/2026If I had to say, I don't think the outcome will be a repeat election, but I really don't know. Either way, it is a serious situation that necessitates changes to combat future attempts at election fraud. 010
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 21/09/2026It's unclear what happens now, and I will not claim to be an expert on it. Theoretically, a repeat election across the entire constituency is possible and is being talked about in parts of the media. If that were to happen, the bloc majority in the Riksdag could change. 110
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 21/09/2026It should be emphasized that this is still being investigated and does not concern the counting of votes itself. The result in the municipality also could not have moved candidates between the parties. But it might have influenced what candidates within the parties got elected. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Update on the Swedish election: There apparently now is a police investigation into suspected election fraud in the municipality of Borlänge (Dalarna county), specifically about incidents of people improperly trying to influence voters during voting. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Update: SVT is now projecting, as has been kind of apparent for a while, that the blue bloc will not win a majority of seats. At this point, I am fairly confident that V ultimately will win the 349th seat. So the total bloc distribution will be 176 to 173 seats. 020
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 16/09/2026So bottom line is this: The late-arriving vote count is going approximately as we would have expected and the overall bloc majority will not change. 100
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 16/09/2026The reason is that while gaining the 349th most marginal seat (right now held by S) requires relatively few votes, the blue bloc doesn't just need to gain the 349th seat, but also the 348th seat (held by MP). And there more votes are needed. 110
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 16/09/2026It is highly unlikely that the bloc lead will change. I have seen some people incorrectly think that some 1,500 votes for M and SD each is enough for both to gain a seat. This is not correct and is a misunderstanding of the math. You need substantially more votes for that. 100
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Update on the Swedish election: As we speak, the late-arriving votes are being counted and this is the current seat calculation. The 349th seat is hovering between S and SD. However, it seems likely that either V or M will ultimately win it once all votes are counted. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026The only believable path to 175 seats I can find, is if in contrary to expectations, M overperforms by an extraordinary large margin on these votes, so much so that it reaches 72 seats and flips a seat from both S and MP. Technically possible, but would be surprising. 000
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026You can see that these votes slightly favor M. And this is why I expect M to gain a seat from S. As happened in 2022 with that year's late votes. However, unless the tendency is in the opposite direction of previous patterns, it's difficult to see that last seat flipping. 100
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026These numbers here, which are the breakdown of late-arriving ("Wednesday votes) and regular vote results of the 2022 Swedish election, illustrate why I think the outcome will be a 175 to 174 win for the red bloc. The red bloc actually slightly won those votes in 2022. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026In hindsight I could have tried to also include regional breakdowns in my projection. Although looking at the numbers right now, I am not sure if it would have fully captured the geographic shift. 110
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026For the exit poll the issue is mostly the margin of error. The miss for most parties was acceptable. But for M and MP, i was larger than you want it to be. One possible explanation that has been mentioned, is that this could be caused due to the sample of young voters not being fully representative. 010
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026For the polling miss, I think it's arguably not even a miss, as much as it was just the fact that the decisive voter movement towards M happened in the very last few days of the election, whereas most polls were published on Friday, two days before the election. 111
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026That's probably not the cause of the polling miss. The reason my own projection was like that is because it's based on the 2022 election result, not taking into account relative geographic swings. 211
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026For the blue bloc to win 175 seats, SD would need to win a seat from MP. While not completely impossible (there is theoretically a path), this seems highly unlikely to me. You have to consider that in 2022 SD underperformed nad MP overperformed among those votes. 030
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Based on the result in 2022, I expect both M and V to gain ever so slightly, while S declines ever so slightly. I think M wins the last seat back from S, but I am far from sure. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026For those curious, the assessment I had on election night is essentially unchanged. This is what the current seat calculation looks like (without trying to project remaining votes). It is very open what party wins the last seat, but it's unlikely the blue bloc wins a majority. 140
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026As it states in the image, this is the result with all regular precincts counted, but without the late-arriving ballots, which will be counted on Wednesday. 130
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Update: With 97.5% of the regular precincts counted, it is now 176 to 173 between the blocs, with a seat having flipped from M to S. However, this seat is on a knife's edge, and I project it will flip back to 175-174. However, it will be close. Current count shown below. 020
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026I will give an update if I think the seat distribution might change, but thus far things are relatively set in stone and projections are very reliable except for the caveat I mentioned about Wednesday votes. 120
Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Update on the Swedish election: The projection (shown here, from SVT) has stabilized and will stay at around the current numbers: 175 to 174 for the red bloc, and a 0.4% vote share lead. However, it will remain so close that we will only know for sure who won on Wednesday. 251
