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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Update on the Swedish election: There apparently now is a police investigation into suspected election fraud in the municipality of Borlänge (Dalarna county), specifically about incidents of people improperly trying to influence voters during voting.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Update on the Swedish election: As we speak, the late-arriving votes are being counted and this is the current seat calculation. The 349th seat is hovering between S and SD. However, it seems likely that either V or M will ultimately win it once all votes are counted.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

These numbers here, which are the breakdown of late-arriving ("Wednesday votes) and regular vote results of the 2022 Swedish election, illustrate why I think the outcome will be a 175 to 174 win for the red bloc. The red bloc actually slightly won those votes in 2022.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Did a map of the Swedish election.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Update on the Swedish election: The projection (shown here, from SVT) has stabilized and will stay at around the current numbers: 175 to 174 for the red bloc, and a 0.4% vote share lead. However, it will remain so close that we will only know for sure who won on Wednesday.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Before the Swedish election, there was a lot of talk on whether Allard and his left-conservative Örebropartiet could enter the Riksdag on a constituency seat, something that required 12%. It is now clear that the party did not come close to a seat. Others are at 5% in total.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Update on the Swedish election: I think the red bloc opposition, led by the Social Democrats will end up winning a majority of seats, 175 to 174. I think one seat will move from SD to M, but otherwise the seat totals of each party should remain the same as right now.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Update on the Swedish election: To illustrate just how close everything is, and how huge the mere rounding of quotients to seats under Sainte-Laguë's method can be, here is the seat calculation under the current projection from SVT. 175 to 174 for the red bloc opposition.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Quick thoughts on the Swedish election: The red bloc opposition is leading by 175 to 174 seats. And my own projection and that used by SVT indicates the final result will also be the same by bloc (but with some changes by parties). I think the red bloc wins, but it is so close.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Update on the Swedish election: Contrary to the exit polls, the election is going to be VERY close. A projection from SVT has the blue bloc currently winning by 175 to 174 seats. But it is much too early to know who wins as it is so close.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Swedish election: Looking at the earliest numbers, I think the red bloc is likeliest to win (as the exit poll indicates), but I wouldn't be shocked if the upcoming projections indicates the election is even closer than the exit polls indicated. I think. I could be wrong here.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Swedish election is happening today. Here are some links to follow results: Official results website: resultat.val.se SVT and TV4 will each publish an exit poll once polls close at 20:00 CEST. SVT: www.svt.se/nyheter/inri... TV4: www.tv4.se/valet-2026

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

With the Swedish election taking place tomorrow, here is my projection of how it might go, based on the opinion polls that have been published. The red bloc opposition is likely to win, but it is so close that it could swing the other way, allowing Kristersson to stay in office.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I wanted to show a Danish opinioon poll that was just published today, because it's probably the most shocking poll so far in the electoral term: - Worst poll for V ever - Worst for F since 2022 - Best for the O since 2019 - Best for C since 2022 - Best for Æ since the election

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Did a map of the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The full prelimnary result has just been reported.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

To illustrate how crazy the effect of tactical voting is: Before August this year, Linke was polling above the combined vote shares of the SPD and the Greens. Now? It is receiving fewer votes than both parties individually. bsky.app/profile/gust...

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

In the Saxony-Anhalt state election, a possibility they are discussing on German TV is that the election of the Minister-President goes to a third round, where if the BSW abstains, the CDU Minister-President, Sven Schulze, could be re-elected based on the current projections.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

If anyone wants to see a clear example of German tactical voting, take a look at the Halle III constituency in the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The Greens do way better on the party vote (left) than the constituency vote. Clearly, this is Linke voters tactically voting for it.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

In the latest projection from Forschnungsgruppe Wahlen, the AfD is 0.3% from winning an absolute majority of seats. Since it might be relevant, note there is a rule that a party winning a majority of votes above the threshold will win a majority of seats.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Saxony-Anhalt state election: Based on the current reported figures I think the AfD plausibly could get above 45% and will certainly approach it, which would be very close to a majority of seats. I also think the BSW fails to clear the 5% threshold, even as it will be close.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Now that the final poll ahead of the election has been published, I did a projection of the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The AfD will win its second ever German state election. It is however likely that the landtag would re-elect incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU).

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

With the full result in both Reykjavik north and Reykjavik south reported, it can now be called that the no side will end up with more votes. bsky.app/profile/gust...

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

I think the Icelandic referendum will end in a no, given that the results for yes are consistently underperforming the benchmarks ever so slightly.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

I want to give a quick update on what has happened in Danish politics since the government formation this summer. As the current polling graph indicates, things have not fundamentally changed, but there still are some developments paying attention to. 🧵

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

I am looking at the Peruvian presidential election, and I thought I would share my thoughts. If you look at the results reported thus far, and estimate what remains, it basically is a complete 50/50 tossup with regards to who wins.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

It has just been announced that Henrik Frandsen (M) will become the next president of the Folketing from October onwards. He will be supported by the parties in government and those supporting it. Current president Søren Gade is not standing for re-election.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Here's an overview of the ministers in the incoming Danish government. By far the biggest surprise is the replacement of Nicolai Wammen (A) was Finance Minister with Peter Hummelgaard (A). This is a big deal as both are candidates to succeed Frederiksen as party leader.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

🧵The incoming government of Denmark has just proposed its government coalition agreement. Here is a summary of some of the most notable initiatives that are being proposed. I have chosen to list it in the categories/section the agreement itself uses, to make it easier to list.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

The Danish goverment coalition agreement will be presented in about an hour. But already now various details have been announced throughout the day. The agreement is apparently "very long and detailed" and contains a lot of different news and proposals.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Update on the Danish government formation: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (A), after meeting the king, has officially announced the formation of a government consisting of the Social Democrats (A), the Socialist People's Party (F), the Moderates (M) and Radikale Venstre (B).

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Update on the Danish government formation: All the negotiators have left the Prime Minister's official residence of Marienborg, including Mette Frederiksen herself. It seems they are done with the negotiations and an agreement has been reached. An official announcement remains.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Update on Danish government negotiations: Parties have been negotiating the entire weekend and are continuing today. It appears that a government could be presented and appointed very soon, likely this week. As a reminder, this would be a government consisting of A, F, M, and B.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Update on Danish government negotiations: The negotiating politicians (A, F, M, B) have just left the negotiations for tonight. Having been negotiating since 13:00 CEST. They will continue tomorrow. Everything indicates Denmark will get a new government next week.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Quick update on the Danish government negotiations: Long negotiation meetings were held on Sunday and Monday between A, F, M, and B over forming a government with the four parties. This was the first time that these parties all officially met to negotiate a government agreement.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

🧵Update on the Danish government formation: As had been expected, the king has appointed Mette Frederiksen (A) as formateur. She says she is now aiming to form a government consisting of A, F, M, and B. She says "intensive" negotiations will begin tomorrow.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Update on the Danish government formation: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M) has announced that his party will not support the formation of a right-leaning government consisting of V, I, and C, as had been proposed by Troels Lund Poulsen (V). A new formateur is expected to be appointed.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Quick update on Danish government negotiations: Troels Lund Poulsen (V) has given Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M) a deadline for tomorrow to answer whether his party "will not oppose" the formation of a government consisting of V, I, and C.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Update on Danish goverment: Troels Lund Poulsen (V) has just announced that he is proposing the formation of a government consisting of Venstre (V), Liberal Alliance (I), and the Conservatives (C). He says these parties have agreed on a political framework.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

For anyone wondering, this is what today's Hungarian opinion poll from 21 Kutatóközpont looks like, if you map it out. Tisza would get about 85% of all seats in the legislature, with Orbán's electoral system. 🟦Tisza 71%, 170 seats 🟧Fidesz-KDNP 21%, 23 seats 🟩MH 6%, 6 seats

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Fun fact: It is possible, given the data that is made available by Statistics Denmark, and the election results published, to essentially make a "Danish DRA"-style district builder, similar to what exists in various forms for the US.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

🧵With the results of the Scottish devolved election now in, I thought I would use this as an opportunity to illustrate the different systems of MMP that exist, and how this affects the distribution of seats between parties. Below is the first type, the system actually used.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Update on the Danish government formation: As expected, the king has appointed Troels Lund Poulsen (V) as the new formateur. This means he now has the task of investigating whether a government can be form. Here is what the the individual parties wrote 🧵

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Did a map of the Welsh devolved election.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

To give an analysis: Yesterday there was a much talked about meeting between Løkke (M), Lund Poulsen (V), and Mona Juul (C). I and others assumed it was partly to send a signal, and to inform them about what was going on. bsky.app/profile/gust...

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Breaking news in Danish politics: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M) has just announced that he is supporting Troels Lund Poulsen (V) as formateur, saying "we need to change track". This effectively ends the current ongoing negotiations with Mette Frederiksen (A)

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

An update on the Danish government formation: They are still negotiating, but things have entered "a more intensive phase", as some analysts have put it. The party have barely made any public statements on what is happening in the past week.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Breaking News: Nadja Natalie Isaksen, who was elected as an MP at the Danish election, has just announced that she has left Citizens' Party (H). This leaves the party with just one remaining MP: Party leader and founder Lars Boje Mathiesen. The party won 4 seats at the election.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

🧵Update on the Danish government formation: Negotiations continued this week from Monday to Wednesday. It has become increasingly clear that parties are forming a government with A, F, M, and B. Although its formation is not certain and negotiations will still take a long time.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Update: It has been announced that the Social Democrats (A) have promised the Moderates (M) that it can join the group of parties behind the agreement once a government is formed, regardless of the composition of the government. bsky.app/profile/gust...

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

For anyone wondering, this is what that Hungarian opinion poll from Medián would look like if it was an election result. bsky.app/profile/euro...

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