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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Can someone tell me where I am going wrong? A major ethical problem I *do* see with this study is that the researchers, in my opinion, appear to be hacks and are highly likely to provide a false negative result. In the long run this could increase vaccine hesitancy, distort funding decisions, etc.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I rank (A) as the best, but I suspect it is not a realistic counterfactual and we are choosing between B and C. I struggle to understand how C is superior to B for the kids involved. (If this reduces transmission, isn't B better even for the control kids?)

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

As I understand it, there are three scenarios A) Don't do the study, US gov't spends the money on vaccinating all the kids instead B) Do the study, half the kids get vaccinated C) Don't do the study, US gov't keeps the money, none of the kids get vaccinated

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I acknowledge that my moral and ethical intuition is permanently garbled by too many years thinking like an economist, but I still don't understand what hypotheticals / counterfactuals we have in mind when speaking of the harm here.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

But how does the new House organize itself before it exists? I get that the old one is gone and has no say, but there does seem to be an odd moment where the new House has to bootstrap itself into existence.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

It's probably in the game. He has 35 hr in 127 games this year so 18% in a game is - ahem - in the ballpark.

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Olivier Simard-Casanova @o.simardcasanova.net · 03/10/2026

The US is, or was, the world’s leading scientific power in economics. The Trump administration is inflicting extraordinary damage on what was once an infrastructure of excellence. The open question is how much of that damage will prove permanent.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Hurting your back is not a sign of aging. The sign is when your back hurts for no discernable reason.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This man is a trustee of a public university. Crikey.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I will forever be a LyX Guy but the new features on Overleaf are pretty sweet. For example, the Library: docs.overleaf.com/citing-and-r...

docs.overleaf.com

Library | Overleaf docs

Your Library provides a unified reference data repository for all your projects.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

You mean RotJ, right? I agree btw

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

He's very impressed with what I do.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I was going to make a smarty-pants reply that you're describing a thermometer rather than a thermostat, but if you think of the Fed as your HVAC then it works.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I'm not a lawyer and I am a big dummy but don't see how it's illegal to say "here's a policy we're going to implement if we win this election."

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Update: it was just one of them! R2 still jerkface though.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

There's all kinds of great instruments for rainfall! civil wars, ag output, vote share, and at least 189 more (*). I haven't read @jonmellon.bsky.social 's AJPS paper super carefully but I'm pretty sure that was the message. (*) Apparently Referee 2 killed three of them, that jerkface

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I crafted a beautiful "he's a shaky econometrician anyway" joke but then made the mistake of checking the paper and that RR was Roberto Rigobon. www.jstor.org/stable/3211805 Never check your facts, kids.

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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

It's quite a high bar and must dramatically narrow the range of competent economists if you can't have criticized Trump's economic policies.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Completely orthogonal to my comment

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Put a pirate hat on hot dog guy For no particular reason, of course

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

I have answers but I can't find the raw data

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

2-meter lanes or two meter lanes?

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Spray a lil' PFAS on it, it'll hold (Don't rub it in, though)

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

People of Spain, explain yourselves: a continuing series

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I award you one "ha." Heartfelt, genuine, but no more.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Lifetime achievement award likes here

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

It's interesting that there doesn't seem to be a similar level of concern about the data the car manufacturer collects from drivers. Not sure if it's less well-known, the fact that it's private vs government, or what...

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

People of Spain, continued self-explanation is required

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

This paper by @jmwooldridge.bsky.social looks promising: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... However, I fear that the more J. Econometrics on the syllabus, the less likely I am to convince the curriculum committee that this is an applied class and does not duplicate our econometrics offerings.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Hey #EconSky, I have been working on a proposal for a new class, which got me thinking back to this star-studded thread and my conversation therein with (the generous and patient) @paulgp.com This in turn lead me to wonder: is there a good JEL-style review article on design-based inference?

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

All these clowns think they're James Watson when really they're just Richard Spencer (Duke guy BTW)

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Spanish people, explain yourselves: when you "buenas" me in the morning, what specific plural feminine things are you buenas-ing me about?

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Wait, that dipshoot is American? Ugh. Sorry y'all

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

BRB, gonna get Claude to scrape this and use it in my syllabus

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Grading it takes the same amount of time whether it's worth 50% or 0.5%. I gave up and put zero weight on homework last semester. The diligent students did it, the others didn't, and the exams told the tale.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Avasarala: that's nice, dears. Now tell us, what does a Deimos eclipse look like?

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

DJ Khaled meme but sincerely dot gif

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

"Rising debts also result in investors demanding higher interest rates to buy that debt;" Fortunately sovereign default would have no such consequences

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

As I collapsed on the streets of Laredo, As I fell down drenched in my own sweat

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R.E.M. @remhq.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Here’s to 44 years of this fine EP! Released on August 24, 1982.

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

If you're doing a book tour I hope it will bring you back through Raleigh. 🐺

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Raymond Guiteras @guiterasecon.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Zotero is so blipping awesome everyone should joyfully declare its use

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