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The even bigger picture is this: If Latinos help deliver a decisive Dem win this fall, it could permanently break what I call the Myth of Multiracial MAGA. Thoughts on this here: newrepublic.com/article/2164...

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I go through some of the caveats here. But the big picture is this: Research by Equis suggests Latinos are a sizable vote share in at least 20 competitive House districts. Recent polling shows a lopsided Dem lead among Latinos. That could really matter a lot: newrepublic.com/article/2164...

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"Seeing this early surge suggests we’ll potentially see historic levels of Latino engagement," Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, who conducted this analysis, tells me. He also finds that many counties with spike in Latino early voting saw high-profile ICE activity: newrepublic.com/article/2164...

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Remarkable: As of now, Latino early vote is outpacing where it was at same time in 2024 in both percentages of vote share and in RAW VOTE TOTALS. That's big. Presidential turnout is usually higher than midterms. I obtained new analysis from Dem firm TargetSmart: newrepublic.com/article/2164...

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Funny how Marco Rubio tries to differentiate himself from all the other children of recent immigrants who are now getting removed from the country by the master he now serves. Rubio, you see, is a descendent of *the West*

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Trump's rage at Dr Annie Andrews is getting worse and his smears are getting more disgusting. Must be those GOP polls finding South Carolina close!

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Worth watching: South Carolina Dems are starting to roll out ads featuring GOPers endorsing Dem Annie Andrews. On our pod, Jalisa Washington-Price, who runs a PAC, says a $2 million ad buy is set to feature a former GOP lawmaker from a deep red county: newrepublic.com/article/2163...

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I'm so old I remember when this poll/metric inspired a thousand hot takes about the Dem Party image being irretrievably damaged by cultural excess via @simonwdc.bsky.social's indispensable newsletter... www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-up-11...

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Wow. In case you think this is only about the economy, data we obtained shows that in South Texas, Latinos now disapprove of Trump *on immigration and the border* by huge margins. South Texas was locus of the vaunted "realignment." Immigration has helped unravel it. newrepublic.com/article/2160...

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Trump's Ohio rally crowd chanted: "Deport! Deport!" But don't overlook this: New NYT poll finds Trump underwater *on immigration* even in Ohio, which he carried by double digits. MAGA sadists are yelling in a shrinking bubble. Check out our exchange on this: newrepublic.com/article/2162...

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Yes, 100 percent. There's no reason why a Democratic House can't defund both the Office of Remigration and third-country deportations more generally. As I reported recently, here's what's being discussed: newrepublic.com/article/2157...

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Something big may be happening: Trump's world-historical misrule may be creating the conditions for the emergence of a coalition similar to the one that ousted Viktor Orban earlier this year: Anti-corruption, anti-authoritarian, pro-democracy. I made this case here: newrepublic.com/article/2161...

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Fox News really giving Trump the middle finger here with this graphic (remember, the only reason Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee is Trump ordered GOP voters to choose him instead of Cornyn)

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Yes. As we report in the piece, the non-MAGA Rs are actually less enthusiastic about voting:

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This is on a knife's edge. Averages have Talarico lead at under 3 points. That's incredibly close. Polls might be wrong! But a broad coalition just may be coming together that confirms some basic insights about Late Stage Trumpism and why it's in so much trouble: newrepublic.com/article/2161...

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Adviser to Talarico campaign points out that non-MAGA Rs are exactly the sort of voters who would have backed John Cornyn and might be reluctant to support the corrupt adulterer that Trump ordered them to support. That may explain why Talarico is winning 1/5 of them newrepublic.com/article/2161...

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This is a critical finding from Fox: Non-MAGA Republicans are less enthusiastic about voting than Dems or Texans overall. If this is right, Rs souring on Trump really could depress GOP turnout. Trump is also underwater statewide, including with working class. newrepublic.com/article/2161...

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More from our pod: DCCC official Madison Andrus tells us internal polling has Bobby Pulido leading by 49-43 in Texas's 15th and Rep Vicente Gonzalez leading by 47-40 in Texas's 34th. This was before Trump's convention in Texas. Dem polling shows more movement since: newrepublic.com/article/2161...

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Dems now leading GOP on every issue Quinnipiac polled, including the economy, national security, and immigration:

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“Most Americans are pro-immigrant,” Talarico says. “Throughout US history, immigrants have always made us richer and stronger.” Trump's barbarities have opened the way to a new consensus. Talarico is giving voice to it in moral language that Dems can learn from. 5/5 newrepublic.com/article/2160...

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Talarico has an immigration plan that in its broad strokes is very humane and pro-immigrant. He says our border should be like a "front porch" with a "lock" and a "welcome mat." Both of those are important. The "welcome mat" in his plan deserves more attention. 4/ newrepublic.com/article/2160...

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I've obtained new data showing that in 3 House districts in South Texas, big majorities of Latinos are swinging hard against Trump on immigration. This is where the "multiracial working-class realignment" behind Trump restrictionism was said to be happening. 3/ newrepublic.com/article/2160...

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The other day, Talarico leaned hard into the case for immigration as a positive good for our country in a way you rarely hear from Dems. He has a real theory of the case: Trump's cruelty and barbarism have opened space for new moral arguments, a new consensus. 2/ newrepublic.com/article/2160...

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Striking stuff from Nate Silver: Dem lead in House generic ballot matchup now approaching 10 points. Dems hold small leads in the polling averages in six big Senate races.

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Lots of talk about defending "Western civilization" these days, so here's Richard Wright on what it means to be Western:

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Brutal: One Iowa GOP strategist privately tells WaPo that the midterms could be a "wipeout." That supports what we reported on the potential for big Dem gains in rural areas, based on what the Iowa Dem chair told us on the pod (see my thread below).

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

lolololol come on get real NYT, have some basic editorial standards

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Elites that surrended to Trump in 2025 miscalculated, letting his imagined cultural dominance spook them into inflating the price of getting on his bad side. But now the logic of collective resistance has been confirmed as sound. Should have realized this earlier! newrepublic.com/article/2158...

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

In his rant about the media, Trump also claimed his popularity is soaring. Amusingly, the Cook Political Report just shifted 15 House districts in Dems' direction. Several districts that he won by +10 and +18 (not a typo) are now toss-ups, suggesting total collapse: newrepublic.com/article/2158...

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Trump's tirade at the media for boycotting Xi's arrival actually gives away the game in an interesting way: He basically admits straight out that he badly needs the media's attention. In some ways he's powerless without it: newrepublic.com/article/2158...

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

"I would like people to take Trump up on his challenge: Vote like Trump is on the top of the ticket." Iowa Dem chair Rita Hart says that what's opening door to rural gains is not just prices, but also this administration's corruption and self-dealing. On the pod: newrepublic.com/article/2158...

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Stephen Miller’s Office of Remigration was deliberately named to announce to the world that white nationalism is now the basis for US immigration policy. If Dems win power, they should defund it. They should also defund third-country deportations. New from me: newrepublic.com/article/2157...

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This idiocy is a pretty good illustration of what I tried to get at in the piece below, especially the stuff about MAGA's effort to recast ethnic cleansing as a heroic, last-ditch civilizational rescue mission:

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I could be wrong, but this might be the first time that polling averages show Trump's approval below the benchmark of 35 percent this term:

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The whole point of calling this agency the Office of "Remigration" is to deliberately signal to the world that white nationalism is now the basis for US policy. Some thoughts on this whole worldview below. 5/ newrepublic.com/article/2157...

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With Dem House, defunding Office of Remigration and defunding 3rd-country deportations are on the table. Also: Haul officials who oversee it all before Congress. “Removing individuals to countries where they have no ties is unconscionable,” Rep Lois Frankel says. 4/ newrepublic.com/article/2157...

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