iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 21/09/2026

U.S. total fossil fuel consumption. So many changes below the surface over the past 15 years, but no forward progress since the initial round of gains secured post 2008. #stuck

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 13/09/2026

TIL: Canada and Greenland (an E.U. OCT - Overseas Countries and Territories) actually share a land border: Hans Island. Moreover, residents of Greenland have EU citizenship but the *land* itself is not formally part of the E.U. common market.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 05/09/2026

For my fellow cyclists: I resurrected my 2003 Serotta Colorado III frame this summer, and plastered it with as much shiny silver as possible. Campy Athena (NOS), H Plus Son archetype rims with White Industries T11 hubs. Gearing: 53/39 in front, 12/29 in the rear. She's fresh as a daisy.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 06/10/2025

Quite an active courtroom evening shaping up here in Portland.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 06/08/2025

When charts become popular on social media they tend to transform into collection bins for everyone's priors. This one is fully loaded now, piled high with explanations. I am cautious.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 05/08/2025

EU wind and solar generation growth last year exceeded total demand growth: 60.5 TWh vs 53.1 TWh. All good. However, this is colored by the unfortunate fact that EU industrial production is currently in a downtrend. www.coldeye.earth/p/next-steps

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 03/08/2025

Truly enjoyed this year's Tour de France, and here's a terrific photo set from @theathletic.com with the perfect shot of the final stage: Pogacar on the cobbled climb to Montmartre. www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 30/07/2025

I did not fully comprehend until today how much the administration believes it is winning on trade. Needless to say, Trump is not winning on trade. Not even a little. To win something, you must either have an absolute or a net gain. No there, there.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 22/07/2025

Last year, 50% of new global demand for electricity was met by wind and solar. Half empty/half full kind of statistic, for sure. I made up a table for this week's issue of @coldeye.earth showing this same metric of wind+solar coverage for the US, China, and EU vs total demand growth. 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 12/07/2025

Here's the latest Attractive Nuisance chart from @ember-energy.org which 1. makes a cause and effect claim which 2. relies on an extremely short data series. As long time China watchers understand, volatility in coal capacity factors has long been a trap for analysis, and this steps right into it.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 10/07/2025

Here's what I wrote about that chart, when the folks at Ember offered it up to me over at Substack. Just to say, this short-dated CF picture is precisely the kind of fluctuation that's normal for China - weather, wind and solar growth, macroeconomic - all play the volatility role. Fakeouts galore.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 27/06/2025

From my February 2025 newsletter, on the new problem of above average growth in total global power demand: www.coldeye.earth/p/downside-o...

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 07/05/2025

If the US established a contractual payment for services rendered with El Salvador, kinda makes it hard to claim that the party to that contract, the US, has no means by which to return Garcia to the US. Just now in Boasberg's courtroom:

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 23/04/2025

As someone who married a foreign national, brought her to the US, and had children together, I've thought alot about Albrego Garcia's spouse these past weeks. My personal view is that we US citizens who are married to immigrants have some standing; our rights are at stake also.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 21/04/2025

From my 14 April newsletter, on capital flight:

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 20/04/2025

IEA 2022: The era of natural gas growth is coming to an end. IEA 2025: Natural gas saw the strongest increase in demand among fossil fuels in 2024. Gas demand rose by 115 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 2.7%, compared with an average of around 75 bcm annually over the past decade. #energysky

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 15/04/2025

... would want to open new productive capacity in the US is absurd—to the point of tragedy." #econsky www.coldeye.earth/p/ricardo-in...

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 13/04/2025

Anecdata: a friend calls to say he's thinking of coming out to Portland with his bike, and cannot believe how cheap the hotel prices are right now. Me: Well that's great for you, but not for Portland, as we tend to get a rush of European tourists starting now. Oops.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 06/04/2025

More on the size of the shock so far.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 06/04/2025

Just one current estimate of the wealth shock (there will be many of these estimates)

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 04/04/2025

www.datawrapper.de/_/c91gB/

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 03/04/2025

Adding: I want to know what your current position is, so that I can react to it. To get that started, here is a decent summary of my current view (from my newsletter):

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 29/03/2025

My 2018 twitter thread on tariffs and Ricardo, with a bicycle manufacturing example thrown in for good measure. x.com/GregorMacdon...

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 25/03/2025

Well written missive from my local wine merchant explaining how tariffs will damage the same, integrated distribution network that serves the domestic industry, and ultimately shrink the total market. Ricardo is very much alive. #econsky cc @scottlincicome.bsky.social

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 22/03/2025

Global coal power capacity by age cohort. via globalenergymonitor.org/projects/glo...

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 14/03/2025

A fine FAFO morning to all. 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 13/03/2025

Road fuel demand in China has taken a hit. Falling last year, and expected to fall this year too. Motor gasoline, and Gas/Diesel oil: 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 12/03/2025

I've addressed several times in my newsletter now how insanely cheap US oil and gas prices are, on an inflation-adjusted basis, and how that is real problem when everything you need to extract has certainly (more than) kept up with inflation. Surprised it's not discussed more. 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 10/03/2025

Anecdata, not needed, but here goes: my bike rides often take me by the $TSLA dealership here in Portland. I can't remember the last time I saw customers, or even bodies moving around. Yes, it's open. Meanwhile, among the cherry trees, there's new signage blossoms in my neighborhood:

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 08/03/2025

Nice portrait of the global macro of energy (from JPM's Cembalest latest Energy report). Says it all. 🔌💡 assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/...

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 07/03/2025

What do people think of this particular passage:

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 05/03/2025

This Op-Ed combines irrefutable facts, a correct theme (renewables will continue to boom), with some red-flag invocations like Moore's Law, and throwing away land lines. The biggest claim, that renewables which produce *electricity* will drive out the bulk of global FF? From my newsletter:

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 05/03/2025

In US power generation, natural gas emissions are now higher than coal emissions. Since 2010, we've shed 1167 tonnes of annual coal emissions, but added 338 tonnes of annual natgas emissions. Ratio there about 3.5: 1 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 28/02/2025

Portland report: cherry blossoms, here they come.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 28/02/2025

US total power generation grew 3.1% in 2024. The YOY growth sums to 131.992 TWh. Combined wind+solar YOY provided 96.437 TWh of that growth. Wind and solar share of total US generation from all sources in 2024 reached 17.33%. 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 25/02/2025

www.coldeye.earth/p/momentum-l...

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 25/02/2025

Longer term chart of same data, back to 1975.

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 25/02/2025

Encouraging and helpful: US emissions on pace to fall 1.00% in 2024. 🔌 💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 18/02/2025

Catching up with Rhodium's latest on US emissions. After stubbornly hewing to the line the US was still, as late as last year, on track to meet Paris 2030** (The US was not on track), they're now finally acknowledging the inevitable. ** most climate pubs reported this view uncritically, btw. 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 13/02/2025

Gas is just a bridge fuel they said. 🔌💡

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Gregor Macdonald @gregor.us · 09/02/2025

Lots of variation in the quality of PaulG's musings but here I do think he's asking a terrific question, an important question. My lean is that AI is going to unleash melancholy, and a queer feeling (old school definition) that we're no longer the apex predator.

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