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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

10/ So we have a few more weeks of Trump “feeling” for the off ramp that works best for him; the markets and the rest of the World will have to wait to see the extent of the fallout. Will things ever be the same again? One things for sure, a lot of reputations may never recover.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

9/ Meanwhile, NATO has its fingers crossed that Trump will ramp down the rhetoric on the Alliance, but perhaps even here the genie is out of the bottle and won’t go back in. I think it will survive, but it must (for now) count far less on assured US support.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

8/ A prolonged & deadly land campaign seems off the table for now. Although a raid on any enriched Uranium will remain a tempting possibility, and a lot of pumped up troops are going to need some time to unwind. But the Straits of Hormuz are everyone else’s problem, not Trump’s.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

7/ Trump has left the “bombing window” open for a few more weeks, in which he hopes to add more time and misery to the recovery of a Nation, that he hopes will forestall their nuclear plans and possibly create the conditions for an overthrow of the regime - but it’s a hope…

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

6/ Both those objectives remain elusive and apparently unachievable, hence the need to get people refocused on the military aims they have achieved with far greater success. It’s why we have seen confusing statements that constantly contradict. They didn’t change them, Iran did!

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

5/ But Trump’s statement about “bombing Iran back to the Stone Age” smacks of a desperation & frustration borne from the inability to achieve the real (and often poorly or non-stated) aims which are a compliant Iranian regime and the removal of any nuclear ambition or means.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

4/ Trump fervently believes that his place in history would be secured if he can get this done. Netanyahu also sees the elimination of an existential threat as epoch defining. So the stakes are high, but so are the mounting negatives - negatives that Trump has been shielded from.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

3/ Speaking truth to power was always going to be a weakness of an administration full of yes men and women. Though if ever you needed evidence of cracks appearing, the firing of the Attorney General & Army Chief of Staff in the midst of a war would be right up there.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

2/ Trump’s confusing and somewhat lacklustre address on 1 April is explained by the increasing realisation of the situation and the narrowing of the window of success. Iran’s resistance has been tougher and longer than expected, and Trump has been sold a rosy version of events.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

A fascinating insider insight into the White House conduct of the EPIC FURY Campaign time.com/article/2026/0… “history also suggests there can be worse outcomes for a President who takes the nation to war than losing an election.” 🧵1/10

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Benjamin Tallis @bctallis.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

What can AI do for AirPower? How do we learn the right lessons from #Ukraine? How can we master technological change to deliver military advantage. Great to be on The High Ground podcast to get into all of this with @gregbagwell.bsky.social & @Sean Bell Listen in👇 open.spotify.com/episode/7r82...

open.spotify.com

Artificial Intelligence: Judgement Day?

Spotify video

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ClaireBFBS @clairesadler.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

Who’d buy a ‘toned down’ version of America’s F-47? Hear what @gregbagwell.bsky.social has to say about it here on @forcesnews.com 👇 youtu.be/Pr_QJir48kY?...

youtu.be

Trumps says he'll sell 'toned-down' F-47 fighter jets to allies

YouTube video by BFBS Forces News

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Complexity was probably a major reason. But pay is also a reason as it’s tied so closely to rank. If we paid more for each rank it would have been easier to stay with the associated names/positions.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Well observed, there has been a bit of disconnect between ranks and units that dates back a long way. Flights, commanded by squadron leaders etc. It has been like that since at least the Second World War. Everything is basically at least one rank out!

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

This has all the hallmarks of a Russian false flag operation.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

In 2001, NATO nations responded to a US call for an Article V response after an attack on US soil. There was no debate about where the attack took place, where the threat came from or who paid for what, just an agreement that an attack on one was an attack on all.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

As the frenzy around NATO spending dominates the defence debate, it’s worth noting whose budget has been reducing👇🇺🇸. And when you factor in how much US spending is outside the NATO area a very different picture emerges. We all need to spend more, but let’s be measured about it.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

6/ The UK needs to ask itself some tough questions about its ambition outside Europe - it will probably need to spend every precious penny to defending Europe. ENDS

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

5/ Pete Hegseth may have been making a broad political point about Europe stepping up, but what he has done is opened a constitutional can of worms. Putin will be overjoyed - Europe needs to see this as an opportunity and not a threat. And it starts with standing up for Ukraine.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

4/ NATO needs to reconfigure for this new paradigm with appointments and roles allocated more appropriately. The NAC also needs to consider the specific voting rights of any Nation that doesn’t make a full commitment to the Charter’s Articles.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

3/ NATO spending by %GDP is irrelevant now, what is needed is a coherent European force structure which deters and meets its threats in Europe, if necessary, without US participation or assistance. This will require more investment.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

2/ He wasn’t specific about US responsibilities under article V - so the US needs to make its position clear on this and address what US Forces can be relied upon either immediately or as reinforcements.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

“We're also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.” A🧵on what this means if true 1/6. www.defense.gov/News/Speeche...

defense.gov

Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered opening remarks at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

My over-riding takeaway from this opening “pitch” is if Europe picks up the bill, then Europe gets a vote on the terms, and that vote should be to uphold international law, not appease a US President intent on getting “his” money back & peace on Russian terms. www.defense.gov/News/Speeche...

defense.gov

Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered opening remarks at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

If you were charged with saving Billions of dollars a day from the US federal budget, would you target the one department that barely makes the “Other” category at a world trailing 0.24% of GDP? It’s not about the money is it?

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

There will need to be boots on the ground to keep the peace, but there will also need to be eyes in the sky to watch over it.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

KFOR would have been similar, but Article 51 of the UN Charter enshrines the right to self defence.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

“Occupation forces” was only relevant at the time when the Charter came into being. As written, the Charter wouldn’t cover NATO troops in Ukraine. I suspect it would have to be under UN auspices.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

As the UK prepares its most challenging defence review in a generation. Here is an easy to read and digest summary of the current issues it faces in the air and space domains. And it’s free! airspacepower.com/wp-content/u...

airspacepower.com

UK Air and Space Power in a More Dangerous World - 10 Perspectives

The Air & Space Power Association

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

If and when a ceasefire starts, a sizeable peace keeping force may be inevitable and is the best chance of ensuring that Russia observes it. Using NATO nation’s troops adds complexity, but who else will step up?

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Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Another great report on drones in warfare, full of useful insights, from @rikefranke.bsky.social

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

I wonder if the model subtracts value for statements or actions by leaders of countries that undermine security or deterrence…..?

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

The UK undoubtedly needs to invest in an Integrated Air & Missile Defence system. But the answer is not to use ships to do it against static locations such as the UK and overseas bases - that would be a very expensive solution.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Whereas, an anti tank guided missile can attain speeds of 200m/s if ground lunched (NLAW) or 450m/s if air launched (Brimstone). It’s physics folks.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Commercial off the shelf drones have some physical limitations that differentiate them from more conventional forms of attack. The primary one is their speed. A commercial drone flies at a maximum speed of around 30m/s.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

There will have been conversations between HMT and MoD as to what assumptions to make.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

As the New Year beckons and before people start talking about Fantasy Defence, here’s a quick reminder of the terms of reference for the UK defence review team👇. It is supposed to be fiscally constrained within the 2.5% envelope: www.gov.uk/government/p...

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

The primary cause of this accident is more likely to be the damage caused by the missile strike. The erratic flight profile after that was probably more down to the loss of primary control as a result of that damage, rather than any jamming - although that may yet prove to be a contributory factor.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

Visibility was low (<2km) around the time of the approach to Grozny, so a visual ID would have been challenging.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

Russia has had to deploy more air defence systems and employ GPS jamming more widely across Russia to counter Ukrainian UAV attacks. But in doing so without effective control or co-ordination it has endangered civil air traffic, as the shoot down two days ago demonstrated. This is a consequence.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

4/ But the pattern of small entry holes is distinct & unlike any other impact damage like birds or another aircraft. If fired from behind a target it would likely impact the tail area, causing serious damage to control surfaces and perhaps the hydraulic and control mechanisms….

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

3/ On a smaller aircraft the pattern is dense enough to cause catastrophic damage to multiple surfaces and systems - including fuel, hydraulics and controls. On a larger aircraft it will still cause significant damage, but may not be immediately as catastrophic. [Pic @AzeriTimes]

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

2/ Its basic model 57E6 missile is 3.3m long and has a 20kg blast/fragmentation warhead that detonates when a radar signal detects close proximity to its target. It’s designed to explode alongside an aircraft so that its expanding pattern of fragments become the damage mechanism.

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

The Russian system that is rumoured to be the one responsible for the Azerbaijan Airlines shoot down is the Pantsir S1 (NATO name SA-22 Greyhound), a short range system with missiles and guns used to intercept aircraft and drones. It’s capable of operating independently. 🧵1/4

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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

3 questions for Russia to answer 1. Were civil authorities aware of active air defence systems and GPS jamming around Grozny? 2. What safety measures did they have in place for civil aircraft to operate? 3. Why was the aircraft diverted so far away with an emergency? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Russia warns against 'hypotheses' in Azerbaijan Airlines crash

The Russia-bound passenger plane went down in Kazakhstan with the loss of 38 lives.

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Tim White @twmcltd.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

1/ God Trump is stupid It's taken me a long time but I've just finished wading through his press conference today when he answered questions on any subject, a little over a month before he returns to the White House. I edited all #Ukraine stuff into a 4'30" video on Xitter, but I'll show clips here

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Christian Thiels @christianthiels.eurosky.social · 11/12/2024

"The U.S. is pouring billions of dollars into protecting its Pacific stronghold of Guam from a Chinese onslaught. But the technical challenges are considerable, China’s weapons are growing more advanced." @reuters.com www.reuters.com/graphics/USA...

reuters.com

How the U.S. plans to fortify Guam against China’s missile threat

An interceptor test marked a milestone in the $10 billion American plan to turn the Pacific territory into one of the most heavily defended places on earth.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 10/12/2024

🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Droid TW 12.7 robotic recon-strike complex is now officially in service, per the Ministry of Defense. Armed with a 12.7mm machine gun, it operates remotely via tablet & uses digital communication—proven reliable in combat tests.

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