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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment

@granthamicl.bsky.social
6.1K followers 450 following 1.3K posts

Our mission is to lead on world-class research, policy, training and innovation that supports effective action on climate change.

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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Professor Otto is a climate scientist based at the @ic-cep.bsky.social and leads @wwattribution.bsky.social, a research group that collaborates with scientists around the world to quantify how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of an extreme weather event.
Event card with Professor Friederike Otto.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The findings highlight that heat adaptation plans must look beyond general temperature alerts to target specific vulnerable communities and disadvantaged local areas.
Fig. 2 a. Relative risk (RR) of all-cause mortality at 90th temperature percentile at municipality level; b. Attributable fraction of heat (AFH) in each municipality; c. Excess mortality rates (ERH) per 10,000 population attributable to heat in each municipality; d. The exceedance probability of RR at the 90th temperature percentile is higher than the national mean; e. The exceedance probability of AFH is higher than the national mean; f. The exceedance probability of ERH is higher than the national mean. Footnote: The relative risk is expressed relative to the municipality-specific minimum mortality temperature, defined as the temperature between the 25th and 90th percentiles of the municipality-specific temperature distribution that minimises mortality risk.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Event: Grantham Institute Annual Lecture 2026 with Anne Hidalgo Join the Grantham Institute & @annehidalgo.bsky.social, former Mayor of Paris, as she reflects on leading the green transformation of one of the world's largest cities. 📅Oct 27 ⏰17.30-20.30 📍Imperial College London buff.ly/Pqq7yAA
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The necessary transition away from fossil fuels presents challenges, but the benefits it offers, from avoided climate damages to public health improvements and new economic opportunities, substantially exceed investment costs. Follow us and explore our research to learn more: buff.ly/VjpLiHr
Newspaper headline reads: Extreme summer are here to say - and the UK must adapt with urgency
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The UK must also adapt to the reality of escalating climate hazards, utilising technology, investment, public information and community engagement. The UK is also well-placed to become a world leader in adaptation technologies and services. 👉 Read more: buff.ly/rPHuGaA
Graph showing revealed technological advantage within specific adaptation tech - shows that UK has tech advantage across engineering, life sciences and 'indirect', with life sciences and indirect scoring highly. Shows adaptation innovations on a map of the UK - lots of regional innovations across south-east (London and surrounding countries)Graph showing private funding into adaptation sectors, insurance is by far the most (just under 250 million £) with weather forecasting and flood defences much lower (just a few million £ each)
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This month, @unep.org's 'Limiting Overshoot' report concluded that the 1.5°C warming threshold will likely be crossed within years. Co-author Prof @joerirogelj.bsky.social calls for immediate cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and warns of the need to protect our populations. buff.ly/Dr5sTHm
Headshot of Joeri Rogelj against backdrop of the climate stripes, with a quote from Prof Joeri Rogelj: Overshooting 1.5°C is a painful reminder that failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions has consequences we can now no longer avoid, only limit,” says Professor Rogelj. “Our response requires mitigation and adaptation to move together: near-term emissions reductions limit overshoot and reduce harm, but weak mitigation will push communities and ecosystems beyond their ability to adapt"
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The threats posed to lives and livelihoods, and the systems on which we rely, will further intensify as warming continues. UK emissions have halved since 1990 but more complex decarbonisation challenges lie ahead. 👉 Read why achieving net zero globally is necessary: buff.ly/V6ApUlv
Screenshot of first paragraph of net zero essay - click the link for more info.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
🔥 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗞 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗲𝗿𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿. 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗺𝗲, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘁... Thousands of people likely died due to heat-related causes in England & Wales this summer, essentially impossible without climate change: buff.ly/PwoQ5hF
Mean of daily maximum temperatures in each county from June 24-26; (b) return period of similarly extreme temperatures at any time of the year; (c) return period of similarly extreme temperatures in June. Higher return periods indicate rarer and therefore more extreme events. Data: HadUK-Grid (provisional).
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Future warnings: Glaciers and high altitude permafrost respond over decades to temperature rises. As such, past warming has already locked in future destabilisation increasing the urgency of fossil fuel phase outs to prevent future catastrophic collapses.
Before and after comparison following the collapse
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Adaptation limits exceeded: While Nepal has early warning systems and disaster roadmaps, the scale of this tragedy exceeded physical adaptation limits, highlighting the difficulty in adapting to worsening disasters and risk for greater loss and damage.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
High temperatures and increased melt water: July and August 2026 - directly before the collapse - were the warmest on record locally. High snowfall in October and November 2025 added large amounts of melt water in the months preceding collapse.
Charts showing daily maximum temperatures and daily mean temperatures from 1-26 august at 5150m from the Langtang catchment. 

Shows maximum temperatures regularly higher than the mean daily maximum over last ten years. 

Also show mean temperature also regularly higher than for 2016-2025.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Earthquake in 2015: Although its specific contribution to this disaster cannot yet be confirmed, a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 may have further contributed to the slope failure alongside other geological and climatic factors.
ShakeMap for the 2015-04-25 Nepal earthquake
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Permafrost thaw: Relentless warming has lifted the altitude of the freezing threshold on the high Himalaya, exposing ice and permafrost deep in the bedrock to higher and longer thaw temperatures, weakening mountain slopes.
15-day moving average height of 0°C isotherm at the approximate location of slope failure for each decade since 1980 over the glaciological year (October-September). 

What the chart mostly shows is the 0 degree isotherm location for 2025/26 was consistently higher than the average across various decade periods from 1980 to the present and has on average risen decade-by-decade.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Glacier thinning: Warming has driven substantial glacier recession, removing stabilising ice from around the failure site, and contributing meltwater.
Map of the area, showing the site of the rock-ice avalanche on the northern side of Langtang-Lirung Mountain.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Rather than a single extreme weather event, scientists found that the disaster happened as a compound crisis. Decades of atmospheric warming - caused by burning fossil fuels - melted the glacier and thawed permafrost, making Langtang Lirung mountain more unstable and more likely to collapse.
Visualisation showing five factors driven by climate change that may have contributed to the mountain collapse:

1. Permafrost degradation
2. Ice-filled fracture thaw
3. Glacier thinning
4. Increased meltwater
5. Heavier rainfall and higher rain-snow transition

The visualisation also highlights the 2015 earthquake, which may also have made the mountain more unstable.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
6. Share your experiences with other teams conducting clinical trials Share your sustainability efforts & their impact with others, including how they enhance patient experience & reduce costs. Consider joining a community of practice like the Sustainable Clinical Trials COP: buff.ly/NElBqf7
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
5. Improve the environmental performance of your trial site Solar panels on roofs, buying energy from renewable sources, better insulated buildings and more energy efficient products all have an impact. Take part in programmes like the Laboratory Efficiency Assessment Framework: buff.ly/5tpgoxQ
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
4. Reduce waste Where waste is produced, it’s important to maximise recycling and minimise clinical waste. During the planning phase, use data and modelling to try to predict demand as accurately as possible. Identify other teams that could make use of leftover medication and equipment.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
3. Use more environmentally friendly medical products and procedures When possible choose materials that have a lower environmental impact. An MRI scan uses twice as much energy as a CT scan. The Lancet MedZero provides a great platform for emissions data: buff.ly/AWhCqMx
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
2. Minimise transport Transport is often the largest source of emissions across trials. Online appointments & research meetings can reduce costs, travel time & inconvenience for patients, & cut emissions. Plan in advance so that equipment can be transported by road or rail, rather than plane.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
1. Understand the impact of your trial and make a plan Tools like the Clinical Trial Carbon Calculator allow estimates the environmental impacts of different parts of the research trial and see what delivers the biggest environmental benefits: buff.ly/XRWuyc4
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Globally, clinical trials are estimated to produce 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year: equal to the carbon footprint of Belgium. The good news is that reducing the environmental impact of clinical trials often provides direct benefits to patients.
Female scientist pipetting colored chemicals into a tube.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
6 things you can do to reduce the environmental impact of clinical research trials Whether you’re just starting to plan a clinical research trial or are already underway, here are six actions you can take to reduce its environmental impact 🧵 Read more: buff.ly/C1EMMnG
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
“Climate change makes every El Niño hotter, and until we stop burning coal, oil, and gas, these record-shattering months will simply keep on coming,” said Professor @frediotto.bsky.social. 👉 Read our guide to the relationship between climate change and El Niño: www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/pub...
Professor Friederike Otto
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Record high sea surface temperatures have been recorded across the tropical Pacific as a potentially extreme El Niño event continues to build. It is expected to further intensify extreme weather in the coming months.
Map showing anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature for August 2026.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
“Behind these numbers lies a very real human cost,” said Dr @clairbarnes.bsky.social. “Across the UK and Europe, extreme heat this summer disrupted schools, strained hospitals, impacted food production, fuelled fires and drought, and claimed tens of thousands of lives.”
Photo of Dr Clair Barnes
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
🌎 August was the joint warmest month ever recorded, @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social today confirmed, with global temperatures reaching 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels. Western Europe experienced its warmest summer on record, surpassing a record set in 2003.
Graph showing monthly mean of global surface air temperature, with August 2026 highlighted at 16.96ºC.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Global temperatures are set to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within years, leading to an escalation of climate impacts, warns @unep.org in a landmark report co-authored by @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social 's @joerirogelj.bsky.social Read in full 👉 buff.ly/ZKLfRau
Headshot off Joeri Rogelj against backdrop of the climate stripes, with a quote from Prof Joeri Rogelj: Overshooting 1.5°C is a painful reminder that failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions has consequences we can now no longer avoid, only limit,” says Professor Rogelj. “Our response requires mitigation and adaptation to move together: near-term emissions reductions limit overshoot and reduce harm, but weak mitigation will push communities and ecosystems beyond their ability to adapt"
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Climate change is reducing early wet season rainfall in Puerto Rico and Jamaica, leading to drought. Human-caused climate change has reduced early wet season rainfall by 9% in Puerto Rico and 6% in Jamaica, according to a rapid study by @wwattribution.bsky.social 🧵 buff.ly/9vRvmx2
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
With thanks to report authors Gail Sucharitakul, @neiljennings.bsky.social, @carolinehowe.bsky.social and @ic-cep.bsky.social & @aldersgategroup.bsky.social for collaboration for hosting the event.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The panel discussion w/ @rachelsw99.bsky.social (Chair), Louise Daniels (Thrive Renewables), Vassilis Gkoumas @wwf.org.uk, Dr. Pernille Holtedahl & Abi Gardner (Global Youth Biodiversity Network) covered: - Innovation & regulation - Enabling collaboration - Private finance investment in nature
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The report covers: 🎤 Keynote speeches from @jncc-ceo.bsky.social, Chief Executive Officer of the @jncc.bsky.social AND Matt Jones, co-chair of the IPBES Business and Biodiversity Assessment. 📘 Summaries of workshop exercises 💬 Our panel discussion
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Event Report: Nature Positive Futures We held an in-person event on the @ipbes.net Business & Biodiversity Assessment with leading figures from business, civil society, NGO, policy, and research to explore key drivers for change around business and biodiversity 🧵 Read more: buff.ly/vlDTkKf
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Authored by Dr Aidan Rhodes & Dr Fei Teng, the report assesses how digital technologies could improve resilience. It also evaluates the ED2 and ED3 regulatory frameworks and sets out key recommendations, including strengthening long-term incentives and improving transparency and accountability.
Electricity pole in United Kingdom
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Vacancy: Communications Manager We are looking for a motivated and enthusiastic Communications Manager to lead the Communications Team at the Grantham Institute [1/2] Deadline: 3 September 2026.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
⛈️Supercharging coastal heat and storm risks: Marine heatwaves make heat stress on land worse by increasing nighttime temperatures and humidity for coastal towns, while warm water can fuel and trigger destructive storms later in the season.
Coastal fishing village
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
🚧Ecosystem limits: Extreme ocean heat can cause mass die-offs of species like corals, sponges and macroalgae, leading to impacts that cascade across the ecosystem. Future and rapid warming will exceed limits for adaptation for many marine species.
14 day mean sea surface temperatures for various regions in Europe, with 2026, 2025 and all other years displayed.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
⏫Massive expansion of marine heatwaves: In 2026, 90% of the Bay of Biscay/Iberian coast region and 80% of the Western Mediterranean have been experiencing marine heatwave conditions. Without climate change, this would drop to around 40%.
Various observed heatwaves and counterfactual marine heatwaves across Europe July 2026
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
📈Climate change the main driver: climate change - primarily from burning fossil fuels - has directly caused about 2°C of warming in the Mediterranean, 1.4°C of warming in the region centered on the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Peninsula, and 1.3°C in the Celtic region.
Mean sea surface temperatures across various regions of Europe and likelihood of climate change impact
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Scientists analysed four distinct coastal regions, from Celtic to the Mediterranean. All areas saw warming trending higher the average rate of global warming. In the case of the Mediterranean, it is about double the global rate, warming by about 3°C (vs 1.2°C average).
Chart showing study areas and anomalies in temperature during July 2026 in European sea surface temperatures
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
⚠️Surging European sea surface temperatures are due to climate change, new analysis by @wwattribution.bsky.social reveals. The waters surrounding Europe are heating faster than the climate as a whole, with nature, food systems and coastal communities facing the consequences 🧵 Read: buff.ly/UgXQAqg
Fishing boats on shore
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The local area energy planning system should maximise opportunities for district heating using heat pumps where appropriate, given the flexibility benefits this can offer. 📸 Elliott Brown/ Flickr/ CC BY 2.0
Birmingham City council house
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The Government should work with Ofgem to drive forward the heating-as-a-service market, delegating the challenge of system complexity to a few companies supporting millions of consumers. 📸 Number 10/Flickr/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Front door of No. 10 downing street
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The Warm Homes Agency should support delivery of good quality heat pump installation that takes account of different household needs.
Man installs heat pump
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
↕️The use of ground source heat pumps in district heating and cooling networks can help support both short-term flexibility (through thermal inertia) and seasonal heat storage (storing heat in the ground that has been captured through the cooling of properties during the summer months).
Heat pumps in industrial setting
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
🏡Minor retrofits (such as draught proofing, double glazing, and insulating the hot water tank) that help improve building efficiency may well be accepted by consumers alongside the installation of a heat pump, helping to reduce heating demand overall.
Person installing double glazing
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Key findings and recommendations : ⏰Time-of-use tariffs and smart heating controls can incentivise consumers to pre-heat buildings before the evening electricity demand peak, reducing costs while maintaining consumer comfort.
Smart heating meter in home
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Our new briefing paper, published with the @edrc-uk.bsky.social, explores how far heat pump flexibility can be unlocked to deliver smarter, lower-carbon heating for homes while supporting energy networks. Read it here: buff.ly/j71DbN8
Publication webpage on Grantham Institute website
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Heat pumps have proven themselves as scalable solutions to cut emissions, while providing efficient heating AND cooling for homes and buildings across the UK over recent years. However, there are concerns that electrifying heating may make power system operation more challenging. 🧵
Heat pump on building
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Many communities are facing repeated displacement, as homes become unliveable and each new disaster interrupts the recovery from the last. Indigenous communities are disproportionately affected and overrepresented in evacuations.
firefighters battling smoke
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