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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

I was recently interviewed on BBC Radio Scotland about Alberta independence. Scotland seems like an interesting place to think about what is currently happening in Alberta, so I thought I would share some of my thoughts here. open.substack.com/pub/graemewy...

open.substack.com

Alberta Independence: Notes from Scotland

I was recently interviewed on BBC Radio Scotland about Alberta independence.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

My new Canadian Federal Election Forecasting Model is now out. If an election were held today, the probability that the Liberal Party would secure a majority stands at over 99%. The seat projections are striking: LPC: 219.9 CPC: 98.5 NDP: 8.8 BQ: 14.2 GPC: 1.7 open.substack.com/pub/graemewy...

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

I've also written about the NDP for the @broadbent.bsky.social and the @reviewcanada.bsky.social, and much of what I've had to say seems relevant for now. You can find that work here: perspectivesjournal.ca/ed-broadbent... reviewcanada.ca/magazine/202...

perspectivesjournal.ca

Ed Broadbent’s Lessons for Rebuilding Today’s NDP | Perspectives Journal

The task of the NDP is to find ways to add to, rather than supplant, its traditional working-class base.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

And the Conservatives can do populist politics far more effectively than the NDP can. Many of the things that right-wing populism targets will be vigorously defended by the NDP.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The Conservative Party presents a different challenge. It has been particularly effective at attracting many of the working-class voters that the NDP has long sought to represent.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

These weaknesses made Mark Carney particularly appealing to a lot of voters.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

This can be illustrated another way.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The fact that voters don't trust the NDP on major issues is also a significant problem. This played a major role in the party's poor performance last year.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The fact that social democratic parties have abandoned their traditional economic commitments has also had significant electoral consequences. Avi Lewis wants a Green New Deal for Canada. This will have to contend with China's dominance of the energy transition.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

One of the reasons this is happening is that the industrial working class that social democratic parties have long relied on is declining as an electoral force. This is what has happened to manufacturing employment in Canada since the 1980s.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

As a quick summary, the NDP's struggles are part of a broader problem facing social democratic parties across the rich world.

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Graeme Young @graemewyoung.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

I've written a new piece with a series of charts illustrating the scale of the challenge facing the #NDP. You can read it here: open.substack.com/pub/graemewy...

open.substack.com

The Challenge Facing the NDP in Eight Charts

Avi Lewis has taken over a party in crisis.

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