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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Royals want people to walk and take streetcar to new stadium while lawmakers need parking revenue to help pay bonds. That’s some crackerjack fiscal policy design. Glad to see your “partnership” is on the same page. www.axios.com/local/kansas...

axios.com

The Royals want fans walking and riding the streetcar to games

Kauffman Stadium ranked last in MLB for walkability. The Royals' new downtown ballpark is designed for fans who walk, bike or take the streetcar.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Most show pos capitalization (higher prices nearer), but some show/suggest null or neg. The leading edge of this research explores why the heterogeneity. Since facilities are built with other stuff, it's prob not the facility itself (ie, tax breaks, speculation, upzoning, built environment).

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Local group telling Plano city council that proposed arena won't be capitalized into land values for "several years after completion of the arena and district", which is false. Capitalization 100% happens before completion. Will city council look to fact check? www.fox4news.com/news/plano-r...

fox4news.com

Plano officials discuss traffic, property values around proposed Dallas Stars arena

On Monday, Plano city leaders received updates on the status of a planned Dallas Stars arena and entertainment district, while some Plano residents continue to push back on a potential tax to fund it.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

In Colorado, we have one ballot question asking if we want a graduated income tax and a separate ballot question asking if we want to keep the income tax at the current flat rate. I voted “yes” to both in the hopes I can watch lawyers and judges figure out this LSAT logic game.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The Qs to compel lawmakers to answer on record are around why this blighted location now and not any other blighted location? This area would have met the definition 5,10,15 yrs ago, so why let it (or any other area) become more blighted over time? It's a policy choice to allow blight anywhere.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

On KC CC blight opinion, ofc the designation is unsurprising. Lawmakers define blight to justify, not explain, their decisions after the fact. Blight definitions have so many disjunctions that it is effectively impossible for it to be not true except in the richest parts of town.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Inside KC's proposed Royals TIF based on city data: 1,495 licensed biz; 445 of those engaged in taxable activity; 92 of those are restaurants, bars, lodging, and parking. So ~79% of taxable biz in TIF are collateral damage (?). It's only collateral if unintentional. TIFs are clubs, not scalpels.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I'm framed as "skeptical" about the mayor logic. I'm pretty sure, on record, I said something like, "Great, more of this f'ing sh*t." I suppose we can debate the meaning and intensity of skepticism, but it's worth being clear: I'm not skeptical. I know it's crap. www.kansascity.com/news/local/a...

kansascity.com

New Royals stadium report projects $1.4B in revenue, concerts, and All-Star game

Crucial to the project is a tax district covering 4 square miles around the stadium, which one economist criticized as excessively broad.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Bowser pushed for $10b+ to three teams and removed 20 acres of riverfront land from taxpayer control for 90yrs just so she can leave office with a legacy. When we say politicians are more interested in stroking their egos than serving residents, this is what we mean. www.axios.com/local/washin...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

KC officials raiding sales tax funds voters approved for other purposes; the mayor egregiously misleading about tax dollars being caused by the stadium; and most local media being uncritical…this is textbook how representative democracy fails in sports subsidies policy. www.kshb.com/news/local-n...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

SF5052 is working it's way through the legislature and is likely to pass. The bill currently proposes expanding the dwntwn taxing district to the North Loop and eliminates allocating the 3% sales tax on restaurants to USBank Stad. This is lawmakers greasing the taxpayer revenue ATM for the Wolves.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Few public officials take their responsibility as fiscal stewards seriously. In my experience in the policy meat grinder, most don't. There's a reason why public choice theory stands the test of time, and inattentive voters make things worse and more costly. www.dispatch.com/story/busine...

dispatch.com

Nationwide Arena moves forward with $400 million rebuild, but lacks funding

Nationwide Arena was built for about $175 million in private funds 25 years ago. Today, it is seeking $400 million in combined funds for improvements.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Please let's not forget that DC United is in the middle of a 50% sales tax abatement incentive and only have to pay 25% of its real estate tax obligation. The first five years of land occupancy was 100% abatement of both, and the abatements phase out. Which is obvi why they want more DC money now.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

On the philly arena, the owners stated it would be privately funded. That's misleading. I have no doubt it will be privately financed, but the current and likely the new arena receive bigly tax breaks -> tax breaks fund the private financing. Hence, funding is public and private.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

While I’m enjoying Torre’s vindication laps and the well deserved apologies, I can’t be the only one asking of investigative sports journalism: great…can you please finally get around to doing facility subsidies and ignorant/sycophantic lawmakers?

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

"Picked up the dagger, rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrun down the hall, and stabbed the cook." Curry obviously delivered a lot of great lines in the movie, but this r rolling has always been my favorite since childhood. rip.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

For others, this op-ed's framing of DC's deal, while true, is misleading. Yes, more time for haggling took a couple hun mil of taxpayer $s off the table. But that's at most a 3% reduction in the multi billions city lawmakers agreed to give over 90 yrs. Not sure that counts as "substantially better."

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

KC city staffers indicate there's no identified impact of the stadium project on people. Have you not heard of google f'ing scholar? Facility events -> slower EMS response times, faster rate of virus spread, increase property crime and interpersonal violence, and more. clerk.kcmo.gov/View.ashx?M=...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

This a f'ing joke, right? KS collected $6.0b in income taxes last year, $4.7b from the PIT. If this quote is accurate, the R candidate for KS gov believes the Chiefs being in KS will up state income tax collections by 30-100x. And the f'ing jobs comment! www.kmbc.com/article/kans...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Nothing says, “visit Plano” like a 15% hotel tax. I guess, though, we can be pleased with lawmakers’ transparency. It’s rare for them anywhere to say openly they are going to build the arena no matter the outcome of a referendum. www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/p...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

OR has a high PIT burden. Why? Bc residents chose it. They chose to have no SUT and to limit ptaxes. The Blazers are trying to tell you a high PIT burden is a policy defect, but it's a feature, one voters chose. Just like TX chooses to have a stupid large ptax burden in large part bc it has no PIT.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

The logic that SA voters shouldnt vote on city money bc they approved co money is silly. In that vote, among other diffs, SA voters supported a smaller pool of money to be paid by co taxpayers, like voting to have part of your lunch bill paid by the table next to you. www.kens5.com/article/news...

kens5.com

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Author states that arenas being more profitable w/o pro sports than w/ goes against "prevailing wisdom." Sports econ/policy folks have known for decades. If this fact surprises, it's a signal you jump to conclusions too quickly. Teams are the most costly tenants. www.blazersedge.com/trail-blazer...

blazersedge.com

Would Portland be Better Off Financially Without the Blazers?

Empty arena? Lost revenue? Not so fast.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Also worth noting the article states the developer has had trouble "securing full financing commitments" for the project. Another wise (and sadly common) decision by lawmakers to approve taxpayer resources (including displacing residents) before a developer's financial obligations are secured.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

It's impossible to counteract this level of public finance ignorance. When you elect public officials that very obviously don't comprehend inconsistencies or contradictions in their fiscal logic, you should expect them to make expensive and wasteful decisions. www.ksat.com/news/local/2...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Multnomah comms proposing a diff rev stream for its Moda share shows public finance folk psychology at work and that politics rules econ in policy making. It doesnt matter which pot of taxpayer money you take from. It matters that you take from taxpayers. www.oregonlive.com/politics/202...

oregonlive.com

Looking for Blazers’ Moda Center solution, county commissioners eye new funding path

The Multnomah County Board of Commissioners is set to consider at least one new amendment at its Aug. 6 meeting.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

The Rays plan (inc ancillary) is "too big to fail"? Take the team's econ imp figure at face value (you shouldn't ofc), it's only 1.7% of county gdp. The better estimate is 0.17%. Either way, some city council members need to take a drug test. floridapolitics.com/archives/808...

floridapolitics.com

‘Too big to fail:’ Rays negotiators weigh alternatives if Tampa Council votes fall short

Negotiators are closing in on final Rays stadium agreements as officials weigh options that could exclude the Tampa CRA.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Cleveland media keeps framing gateway repairs as a long term funding problem. It’s not. There already is a dedicated revenue stream. The problem is that the city agreed to overfund overimproved facilities. The city overspent relative to its revenue capacity. www.cleveland.com/opinion/2026...

cleveland.com

After state politicians whiff on sin-tax vote, what's the solution for sports venue repairs?

For everyone involved in the dilemma of how to right-size funding for publicly owned stadium and arena repairs in Cuyahoga County, it’s important to remember that doing nothing would not be leadership...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Yes, Bears moving to Hammond could cause at least one other biz to relocate there. I'm sure at least one kid will set up a lemonade stand. This is vacuous, equivalent to me saying I could win the lotto. You know there's nothing useful when the story is all about "could" nwitimes.com/news/local/a...

nwitimes.com

Bears Hammond stadium search could attract more Illinois companies to Northwest Indiana

The Chicago Bears' high-profile, headline-grabbing stadium search in Hammond has put Northwest Indiana in the spotlight and could help draw more Illinois companies across the state line, economic deve...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Stop asking for clawbacks if a team moves. It’s a wasted negotiation parameter. Instead, ask for clawbacks if the team doesn’t win, doesn’t sellout, doesn’t deliver ancillary on time, and if owners/team do something that hurt city/co public image. www.kptv.com/2026/07/18/c...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Done and done. Please journalists, don't ask me about economic impact. Ask me about AI-generated renderings. This is way more enjoyable.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

There. My proposed Moda Center renovation renderings. And I'm not asking you to vote to give me money first.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Voting on leg that you don’t have all the facts on is common for lawmakers, which obvi doesn’t make it right or smart. Elect better. But the insane part in Portland is that the city owns the f’ing arena. Why let yourself be bullied? Come up with your own reno design! www.opb.org/article/2026...

opb.org

Portland City Council won’t have all answers before voting on Moda Center funding package

As a deadline to commit public dollars to Moda Center renovations rapidly approaches, it appears that Portland city councilors will be asked to approve spending $120 million on arena renovations next ...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Can [juris name] afford the debt on [proposed facility]? Yes, bc govts have the power to tax. With enough time and some principal payment, any debt can be repaid. It's also an irrelevant Q. The right Q is if residents are better off with or without higher taxes and the cap imps the taxes pay for.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

My Bentley comment lacks context in the Bears story. I was responding to a question about credibility/reasonability of fiscal impact estimates by Indiana leg. Here are screenshots of my complete comment, including my fat-fingered typos. www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/14/c...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Fun fact: In its pursuit of MLB in 2001, the Oregon legislature approved a property tax exemption for any lessee of a city-owned sports facility. 25 years later that legislation is protecting the Blazers after the city bought the arena. Without that legislation, the Blazers would owe PI taxes.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Theories on Dundon: the NBA BOG approved his purchase bc they don’t want the NBA in Portland; they didn’t know he’d be a twat and now have buyers remorse; or they knew he was going to be a twat and wanted him to be the foil to make all other owners look benevolent—-good owner/bad owner sorta thing.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

As I pointed out to a journalist, under it's 1992 lease, OAC/Rip City had to surrender it's ownership in Moda by no later than 12/31/25 anyway. That the city bought it for $1 in 2024 means a few things but to me the most interesting is that the city overpaid (but did get ownership 1.5 years early).

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

This always reminds me of this gem of a headline. www.bridgedetroit.com/detroit-city...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

For anyone that cares about such things, data centers should be centrally assessed. They are nodes in an information utility system, not warehouses with lots of personal property. This means valuing them as parts of a system rather than as standalone brick+mortar. This is a hill I’ll die on.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

The idea that the value of a ptax break is based ONLY on current land use reveals a deeply flawed understanding of land econ. By this logic, govt should own all property bc it would generate no taxes, hence no taxpayer cost, an f'ing bonkers and false claim. www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/comm...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Modesto kills USL stadium proposal in the works for two years. For now anyway. What makes this remarkable is that it was rejected on a vote, not killed in some committee early in the policy process. www.modbee.com/news/local/a...

modbee.com

Modesto kills professional soccer stadium idea. But is the decision final?

The hope of having a professional soccer stadium in Modesto is dead, at least for the foreseeable future.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Stars arena in Plano is on the agenda tomorrow. Under the current plan, a referendum will be required. Proposed TIRZ is both ptax and sut. Also on the table: increases in the car rental tax, hotel tax, event parking tax, and admission tax. My current est for the ptax TIRZ is $645m pv over 30 yrs.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Someone should tell DeSantis he didn’t make a property tax savings calculator. He made a home insurance premium increase calculator. Interesting H0, though: eliminating ptaxes increases FL home insurance suppliers. www.wfla.com/news/desanti...

wfla.com

DeSantis rolls out property tax savings calculator amid tax relief proposal

Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled a new state website Saturday allowing homeowners to calculate potential savings under his proposed property tax plan, ‘Save Our Homes.’

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

The real loser of the Spurs-Thunder series is Vivek Ranadive. Mike Brown and DeAaron Fox (and Harrison Barnes) are going to the Finals. As a Kings fan, I’m stoked for them.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

You can't solve the stadium subsidy mess with more subsidies, so the whole "let's get the feds to make stadiums/arenas eligible for historic tax credits to reduce s&l govts buying new stadiums every 30 years" is a silly argument. www.cleveland.com/opinion/2026...

cleveland.com

Billion-dollar sports subsidy demands require a congressional response

It is past time to acknowledge that billion-dollar sports subsidy demands are federal issues requiring a congressional response, writes guest columnist Ken Silliman, who advised three Cleveland mayors...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Also worth noting (again) that any lawmaker supporting an MOU on the grounds that it's not final is lying to you. Policy selection bias means lawmakers don't change their vote btwn MOU and final. The optics of voting 'yes' then 'no' are terrible; lawmakers want to avoid looking like they're wrong.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Subsidy debates are filled with bromides. Case in point, Hillsborough Comms' dropping "real" to make themselves sound thoughtful, presumably in an attempt to convince skeptics that they haven't already made up their minds. Real tax base as opposed to fake tax base? www.tampabay.com/news/hillsbo...

tampabay.com

What each Hillsborough commissioner said about the Rays’ proposal

County commissioners voted in favor of the non-binding memorandum of understanding, 5-2.

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