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I was reminded of this just now while reading new CPS research on joint enterprise, which declines to provide data on victim ethnicity because of (quite understandable) gaps in SDE www.cps.gov.uk/publication/...

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Given that police ethnic appearance data is highly congruent with self-defined ethnicity - below for Stops and Searches recorded by the Met - for the broad categories of White, Black and Asian, can someone explain why many organisations consider that only SDE is valid?

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Ethnic group (detailed) - Office for National Statistics

On the Q of ethnic identity in the UK, the 2021 England and Wales Census recorded 288 ethnic identities as a result of the 'write in' option. Those include Asian English, Black English, Mixed English, White English and Other English identities. www.ons.gov.uk/datasets/TS0...

ons.gov.uk

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by ethnic group. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

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Ethnic group (detailed) - Office for National Statistics

ons.gov.uk

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by ethnic group. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

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In all of these places, rising disproportionality between Censuses will have been interpreted as things worsening, whereas the reality is probably rather different - with the clearest effects in places where demographic change has been most rapid.

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In the Met, the pattern is clearest for the 'Other' ethnic grouping, but it is also evident for Black.

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Cleveland, Hampshire, Kent and West Mercia are other obvious examples

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GMP saw rapid demographic change between 2011 and 2021 that wasn't reflected in the denominator. The population went from 2.8% Black and 83% White in 2011 to 4.7% Black and 77% White in 2021.

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Richard Dubourg @richarddubourg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A really important factor in Home Office-calculated stop and search disproportionality is that the Census denominator is only updated every 10 years. GMP illustrates the impact of this demographic drag: a sharp step down when the denominator switched from 2011 to 2021.

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This is insane. Stop and search by ethnicity is a massively sensitive indicator, but this shows it's completely unreliable.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

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Seems like a lot of people don't understand the distinction between pre-charge police bail and post-charge court bail

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Good job this, which started from a victim using their initiative to get their phone back, giving officers a sizeable thread to pull on. BBC News - How 'largest phone smuggling network' was uncovered www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

How 'largest phone smuggling network' was uncovered by Met

Police say up to 40,000 phones were smuggled - the equivalent of around 40% of devices stolen in London.

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Prof Harry Sumnall @profhrs.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The ACMD will be examining the exploitation of women and girls in drug markets as part of a report on the topic in its current workplan.

Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Reposted by Gavin Hales

But if you use a broader definition of child sexual abuse and exploitation by groups, then there absolutely is a multiplicity of types and a significant numbers of cases over the years.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

This is, incidentally, relevant to the rows between the Conservatives and the Mayor in London about the presence of 'grooming gangs' in London - that it depends how you define the problem. If it's narrowly defined as 'Asian grooming gangs' then there seems not to be much present.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I suspect the lack of interest is because the suspects and victims are predominantly Black at a time when discourse has only been interested in 'Asian grooming gangs' targeting White girls.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I'm curious about Heathrow - is it the case that most of the pollution there is from vehicle traffic, or (and?) have aeroplane engines also got much cleaner?

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

I've not followed the issue of IPP prisoners very closely, but it's striking to hear that they (some/all?) may be 'too dangerous to be released'. Given we no longer have IPP sentences, isn't the implication that very dangerous people are released back into society all the time?

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

With serious crime in Cleveland in the news, the gun and knife crime charts below may be of interest

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

If you are interested in the issues surrounding armed policing in the UK, but especially in London, this is worth watching youtu.be/L1jxUi4LfMw?...

youtu.be

Firing Point: Inside the Metropolitan Police's firearms unit

YouTube video by Sky News

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Ian Wiggett @wiggett-ie.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Prime Minister Andy Burnham says he is open to the idea of giving the Welsh government control of policing in Wales. His comments were a marked change in tone from what the UK government has previously said, with the idea rejected in the past.

bbc.co.uk

Andy Burnham says he is 'open' to devolving policing in Wales

Andy Burnham said it was a "good time" to look at issues like policing during his visit to Wales.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

'When Drill lyrics become murder evidence' - really interesting to see the Met putting this out. youtu.be/uQBbH0baAUA?...

youtu.be

When Drill Lyrics Become Murder Evidence | Police Expert Explains

YouTube video by Metropolitan Police

Ian Wiggett @wiggett-ie.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Reposted by Gavin Hales

‘this isn’t the first time the UK suffered a coke drought during a World Cup summer. In 2014, VICE also linked a powder shortage to big international and domestic drug busts. That drought was soon followed by the flood. Time will tell whether this one is temporary too’

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

This was very interesting - signs of changes to the cocaine market in the UK and beyond whatareyouon.substack.com/p/inside-the...

whatareyouon.substack.com

Inside the Great 2026 Cocaine Drought

Purity is down and prices are up. Where has all the coke gone?

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Nothing says 'end of your holiday' more abruptly than hitting the litter-strewn rumbling concrete M20 after covering ~600 miles on smooth French roads.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

I've updated my analysis of charge rates for rapes recorded in successive financial years in England and Wales, incorporating the most recent data (published 23 July). Charge rates continue to improve.

Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

I haven't seen any reporting about this yet, but the drought seems to be taking a toll on housing - a couple of end terraces near me with large cracks on their flank walls, presumably a result of clay soil shrinkage. I'm sure I read something fairly recently that said it was a big problem in 1976.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

I'm blown away by the camera on this really quite modest phone.

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Where will the £2bn come from?

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Where will the £2bn come from?

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

The Home Office has published terms of reference for the End-to-end review of the police accountability system www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.uk

End-to-end review of the police accountability system: terms of reference

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

The latest IOPC 'Deaths during or following police contact' report has been published for 2025/26 (covers England and Wales). Always worth a close reading, esp Ch5 on deaths in or following police custody. Mainly drug/alcohol/MH involved cases, some with underlying health issues.

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Ian Wiggett @wiggett-ie.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

‘The hackers have also breached the police national legal database (PNLD), which provides legal assistance to UK police forces. The cybercriminals claimed to have taken 135,000 pieces of data’

theguardian.com

Hackers steal sensitive data from Department for Education and police

Details of parents and staff, including email addresses and phone numbers, are among data taken by cybercriminals

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Lizzie Dearden @lizziedearden.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

ChatGPT requests are starting to turn up as evidence in criminal trials and these ones are going to be hard to beat

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Reposted by Gavin Hales

Now offences involving knives or sharp instruments. The similarity of the trends in the Met and West Midlands seem notable.

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Some notable consistencies between the MPS and Merseyside in particular, apart from the surge in firearms offences in Merseyside that peaked in the year to Q2 2022/23 (coinciding with when 9-yr-old Olivia Pratt-Korbel was murdered).

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I've been having a rummage through the latest police recorded crime data published by the Home Office on Thursday. I thought this was interesting - looking at how trends in offences involving firearms compare between the MPS and comparator forces.

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If you missed it, the Home Office recently published revised Most Similar Force groupings gov.uk/government/p... These are more properly thought of as most similar force areas, as they take no account of resources etc. The Met (London) is not very much like anywhere else.

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Ian Wiggett @wiggett-ie.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

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‘The Duke of Sussex is being forced to wait for a decision about his security arrangements in Britain while officials grapple with protecting an unprecedented nine former prime ministers at once’

thetimes.com

Prince Harry’s security review delayed as nine former PMs need protection

The Duke of Sussex was promised a risk assessment last year, but was still waiting in June as officials struggled to cope with record demand

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Gavin Hales @gmhales.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

The London Policing Ethics Panel has published a new report on AI in the Metropolitan Police. www.policingethicspanel.london/uploads/4/4/...