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The man is a serious liability

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Technically a serious and content heavy research paper. But there’s also a far simpler political explanation which is rooted in CCP historical narratives, the embrace of unprecedented industrial scale industrial policy after 2005, and Leninist thinking and ambition carried to new levels by Xi.

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About time the governors there et al developed a spine. Let’s hope they stand firm against all intimidation

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Well….. I’m struggling to think of anything Ed Miliband has done or plotted that didn’t end up toxic or snafu’d….

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Balance of advantage normally is with customer/ deficit state not the supplier/surplus country, esp if China's scaled p/low cost exports persist in being resisted in Europe and elsewhere. For the rest of us, rock and a hard place. Trump's tariffs or China undermining local mfg and jobs. 4/4

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China will get to that point too because Xi doesn't want a full throated trade war with his economy in the pan, and Trump doesn't either for fear he ends up in same pan. Interesting to speculate who will cave/blink? Obv, both sides can still hurt one another, tariffs aside, 3/4

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Barely a week after Rose Garden setting to upend global trade system, several countries have announced willingness not to retaliate or negotiate for better deals with the US. US claims of 50 nations not verified yet but some imp ones like Vietnam, Indo and India are notable.2/4

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China intends to crush the trade war

No question that politicians and markets (now just fear) were not braced for China's escalatory response. But this doesn't mean, despite awful optics now, that there wont be a deal at some point. Interesting q is who, by then, will hold the stronger cards 1/4 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

newstatesman.com

Beijing has retaliated against Donald Trump's tariffs — and the response was far stronger than expected.

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The upside is hard to define, imposs to measure, if indeed there is any. But the implicit reordering in world trade is far from trivial, and strategically looks stronger than it is judged by common sense or fairness. And we’re barely in the foothills here. 4/4

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So, hare brained and cruel as Trumps tariffs are, it’s not impossible to imagine this as a Bretton Woods collapse type moment in which supply chain geography and trade patterns go through the wringer and end up quite changed. Downside is less efficiency, lower trade vols, higher prices 3/4

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Along with this, tariffs will puncture the trans-shipment of Chinese goods through 3rd countries which has boomed, and all the more since 2017-18. Asian countries may well - some are already - impose own tariffs against China where dumping or anti-comp practices are alleged 2/4

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Time to move on from ‘asinine and inept’ which it is, and try to get to grips with implications. Check out the Asian tariff changes eg vs Latam etc. Trump is setting out to break up the China/Asia supply chains laboriously created in the last 20 odd years 1/4

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In which I set out the reasons that 65% tariffs would hurt China, even though the exports affected are not that big as % GDP, and what China might do about it, including try for a deal with Trump. How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...

spectator.co.uk

How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China

China has been hit hard by President Trump’s tariff list, which he unveiled yesterday in the White House rose garden. As part of his ‘Liberation Day’, Trump imposed new 34 per cent tariffs on China. T...

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Disgraceful behaviour but no, not really.

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As a gratuitous extra, the Cultural Revolution analogy to Trump’s America is sloppy and I’d say, inappropriate if knowing anything about the CR

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The article recognises Chinese delight at exploiting U.S. damage to ally relations but no mention of domestic politics that prevent/ restrict CCP addressing imp structural probs at home. This isn’t an omission as much as it absolutely critical. Without this, the China narrative is pretty hollow. 4/4

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The trade refs are important and interesting but I was waiting for the bit that says Chinese trade and industry policy is on unsustainable path as 50+ nations are implementing restraints incl tariffs on Chinese goods. Endemic trade conflict resulting is bound to intensify 3/4

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The charts are top drawer but the 1st log chart is misleading. It’s constructed to show China on a catch up path = Japan and Korea. But this is no longer the case, and the levels at comparable development stages, are oceans apart. Myriad of other factors point to China flattening out by comp 2/4

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Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

This, as usual, is a well written but it’s not without weaknesses. Here are 3. 1/4

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Reposted by George Magnus

🇨🇳 ‘The government is certainly not planning to change its mercantilist economic model away from the emphasis on industrial policies and exports, despite new measures to appear more consumer-focused,’ writes @george17.bsky.social, in a new #Investigator #ObservingChina

observingchina.org.uk

China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis

How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?

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4. No recognition of monster $1 trn trade surplus as opp side of weak dom demand , or agent of pushback by both rich and middle income/developing nations 5. Trade is key to the outlook this yr, whether or not Trump/Xi deal happens. Beijing most unlikely to shift political gears on C or trade 3/3

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1 Economy is riding the wave of last year's stimulus, but is still likely to slow again as the year matures 2. More consumer measures, yes, but no change expected in mercantlist focus on industrial policy and exports 3. Demand softness will persist, also deflation risks 2/3

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China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis

In this piece, I take an in-depth look at the CCP's economic deliberations at the NPC earlier this month. Plenty of rhetoric about the need to boost consumption. A few takeaways here 1/3 China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis open.substack.com/pub/chinaobs...

open.substack.com

How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?

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Globalisation as we knew it may be over says HSBC, which doesn’t blink twice in cozying up to Beijing which is a prime instigator of the breakdown in globalisation as we knew it

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