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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

The problem here is you’re not comparing like with like. There must be other reasons why such a high % of people are claiming out of work benefits when we have more of less full employment. It’s an anomaly which requires explanation.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

Thanks to Deutsche Welle for an extended interview on the US China trade war -> embargo -> de-escalation for now and strategically , what it all means youtube.com/watch?v=-4PO...

youtube.com

Trade War: game over or next round? | DW News

YouTube video by DW News

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

Trump says China trade tslks in Switz ‘total reset’. No stranger to hyperbole, him, but total reset is precisely what’s going on in world trade and much related to it, as I explain here: youtube.com/watch?v=7gEk...

youtube.com

The Global Trade Reset Was Inevitable | George Magnus

YouTube video by The Monetary Matters Network

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

Through the looking glass folks, abs ridiculous - Woman wins £30,000 compensation for being compared to Darth Vader

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

While the U.S. and China jostle, too many politicians and commentators have naively concluded the answer to trade more with the biggest mercantilist that only wants to export more to them. Dumb. Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy www.thetimes.com/article/018b...

thetimes.com

Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy

China’s export orders hit their lowest level since 2022. A closer trade relationship is a perilous illusion

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

I think we are learning something rather different. That large structural surplus economies, by imposing -ve welfare consequences on own population, force deficits and welfare losses on other countries. Which is why so many are raising ‘trade defence measures’ against the same surplus country.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Bbg’s Natthew Brooker on the UK Treasury and finance sectir interesrs naivete and weak acumen in setting the Lab Govt’s china policy www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

bloomberg.com

UK's China Policy Is Based on Magical Thinking

Labour’s economic engagement policy is mired in misconceptions about the nature of the Communist system.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

When you write an article like this, it helps to know something about the political economy of the country you’re writing about, and how it works and what doesn’t. AndrewMarr comes up short here 1/2 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

newstatesman.com

Why China is winning

In the struggle with the US for dominance, which superpower’s patriotic determination is stronger?

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Good piece. I think Hatzius is right. US$ depreciation is not the same as loss of reserve currency status. It’s a bear market, not a bare market.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Can’t see Trump firing him, myself. Even if he did, Powell is just one vote on the FOMC, and while you’d have been laughed out for saying this when he was appointed, he’s a pretty imp dude in scheme of things now

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

Interview w/ ‘The Market’s Mark Ditti on the US China trade war, or more like, embargo. many topics but in a nutshell, cajoling one another into talks still seems likely, but nothing can thrn clock back or reset this fractured relationship. themarket.ch/interview/ge...

themarket.ch

George Magnus: Nobody Can Win This Trade War

George Magnus, the former chief economist of UBS Investment Bank and author of the book «Red Flags», talks about the trade war between the US and China, the Trump administration’s approach and the que...

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Technically a serious and content heavy research paper. But there’s also a far simpler political explanation which is rooted in CCP historical narratives, the embrace of unprecedented industrial scale industrial policy after 2005, and Leninist thinking and ambition carried to new levels by Xi.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

About time the governors there et al developed a spine. Let’s hope they stand firm against all intimidation

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Well….. I’m struggling to think of anything Ed Miliband has done or plotted that didn’t end up toxic or snafu’d….

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

No question that politicians and markets (now just fear) were not braced for China's escalatory response. But this doesn't mean, despite awful optics now, that there wont be a deal at some point. Interesting q is who, by then, will hold the stronger cards 1/4 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

newstatesman.com

China intends to crush the trade war

Beijing has retaliated against Donald Trump's tariffs — and the response was far stronger than expected.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Time to move on from ‘asinine and inept’ which it is, and try to get to grips with implications. Check out the Asian tariff changes eg vs Latam etc. Trump is setting out to break up the China/Asia supply chains laboriously created in the last 20 odd years 1/4

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

In which I set out the reasons that 65% tariffs would hurt China, even though the exports affected are not that big as % GDP, and what China might do about it, including try for a deal with Trump. How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...

spectator.co.uk

How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China

China has been hit hard by President Trump’s tariff list, which he unveiled yesterday in the White House rose garden. As part of his ‘Liberation Day’, Trump imposed new 34 per cent tariffs on China. T...

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

This, as usual, is a well written but it’s not without weaknesses. Here are 3. 1/4

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Reposted by George Magnus

Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

🇨🇳 ‘The government is certainly not planning to change its mercantilist economic model away from the emphasis on industrial policies and exports, despite new measures to appear more consumer-focused,’ writes @george17.bsky.social, in a new #Investigator #ObservingChina

observingchina.org.uk

China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis

How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

In this piece, I take an in-depth look at the CCP's economic deliberations at the NPC earlier this month. Plenty of rhetoric about the need to boost consumption. A few takeaways here 1/3 China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis open.substack.com/pub/chinaobs...

open.substack.com

China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis

How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

Globalisation as we knew it may be over says HSBC, which doesn’t blink twice in cozying up to Beijing which is a prime instigator of the breakdown in globalisation as we knew it

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

So true. Lots of students have been not taken care of well by the university. Appalling governance standards

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 22/03/2025

Interesting Eichengreen essay and even for those of us who think the $ is a reserve asset like no other predecessor, the arguments that it’s mainly the USA that can puncture its own currency’s global role rings true. With a caveat 1/2

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

Prof Steve Tsang and I podcast on China pst the National People's Congress. Will, could even, China boost consumption finally, as promised? How will China mange Trump's tariffs? Steve also considers Xi, subject of recent book, and Chinese politics. soas-china-institute.buzzsprout.com/1669327/epis...

soas-china-institute.buzzsprout.com

Planning China's Future — Boosting Consumption, Enterprise and Defence - China In Context

At this month’s legislative session China announced policies to maintain GDP growth at 5%, boost consumption and the private sector and promote AI and high tech industry, from quantum computing to the...

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Author writes here that Beijing is angsty about the 'reverse Kissinger' , ie the US cozying up to Russia to put blue water btw China and Russia. While this is a scenario, it seems unlikely 1/4 China’s partnership with Russia needs to have limits www.ft.com/content/880b...

ft.com

China’s partnership with Russia needs to have limits

As Moscow’s top trading partner, Beijing wields substantial economic leverage over the Kremlin

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

I actually titled this 'Breaking up is hard to do'. Not impossible, obv, but thinking systemically rather than about individuals, and about the world's major US-China faultline , id say there are Atlantic ties and binds that will ebdure somehow. 1/2 engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...

engelsbergideas.com

The transatlantic alliance is fractured, not broken

Despite the severe strains that are being placed on the transatlantic alliance by the Trump Administration, Europe and the United States are bound by economic and security ties that are highly integra...

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

I should’ve thought the answer to this was blindingly obvious. The q should be ‘Will Europe …’, not ‘How should…’

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

Watch this from abt 2.50 to 1240. Riveting interview with ex MI6 head Sir Alex Younger. Calm, considered reasoning about what’s going on, such contrast to so much drivel that ppl spout. www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...

bbc.co.uk

Newsnight - Trump Calls Zelensky a 'Dictator'

Where did the Ukraine-USA relationship go so wrong, so quickly? With Victoria Derbyshire.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

Absolutely. Meltdown mania with full regalia

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

Well pitched piece by Matthew Parris on the recent Munich appeasement hyperbole. So much toy throwing ex prams going on alongside genuine concerns abt how to manage awkward but inevitable change www.thetimes.com/article/a3f1...

thetimes.com

Keep calm, this isn’t another Munich sell-out

Putin’s no Hitler, Trump’s no Chamberlain and Zelensky’s no angel: there was always going to be compromise on Ukraine

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

Varoufakis knows all about quaking. Accomplished practitioner after he’d put his country thru the wringer

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Reposted by George Magnus

Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

🔬 ‘HM Government should pursue…an industrial strategy designed to exploit and scale up the nation’s innovation capacity in science and technology,’ argues @george17.bsky.social, Advisory Board Member, China Observatory #BritainsWorld #BigAsk

britainsworld.org.uk

Should Britain rethink its commitment to free trade?

The Big Ask | No. 07.2025

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

I think this exactly right as explained here. The countermeasures are pretty modest, probably designed to show the flag, but tempt Trump into talks. So far, though, nor worjing 1/3 unherd.com/2025/02/a-tr...

unherd.com

A trade war could crash China

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

In which I look through a Deepseek lens to consider the dichotomous state of China's economy, and, indeed, the curious case of China’s innovation paradox engelsbergideas.com/notebook/chi...

engelsbergideas.com

China's innovation paradox

China’s DeepSeek is an island of technological excellence, but the country’s AI innovators can only achieve so much without greater political freedom and institutional flexibility.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

So, with 30 day delays now re both Canada and Mexico tariffs while deals are concluded, all the rabbit holes in the world are full of ppl who aren’t that good at reading Trump but think they can.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Good explainer why it was more a hyperbole than a sputnik moment. engelsbergideas.com/notebook/chi... Also there’s more to ‘innovation’ than just a word to hawk around. Some is efficiency, scale and cost - chinas strength. Some is tech frontiers - America’s.

engelsbergideas.com

China's AI Sputnik moment is not what it seems

China's AI sector has profound strengths, but it will need to overcome a range of complex challenges if it is to thrive, as the unveiling of the AI model DeepSeek shows.

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Indeed. That’s a perfect riposte to the natalists too. We have to develop our coping mechanisms better

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Good thoughts laid out here… and probably we are still in the foothills of AI. so no fawning or frowning at Deepseek.

ai.so

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Interesting circumstantials on whether China actually got even close to 5% gdp growth in 2024, ie prob missed by a country mile. The trouble is it’s trying hard to push it up again, so let’s see if China’s carbon intensity has actually turned a corner. Of it’s still functionally about GDP

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

No q that Deepseek has set cat among pigeons. But between the predictable fawning and the frowning, lie some important points you can read here open.substack.com/pub/chinatal...

open.substack.com

DeepSeek: What the Headlines Miss

Posting will continue until the takes improve

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George Magnus @george17.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Rachel Reeves' trip to China a week ago needed to happen, but the govt's claims that it gels with and will result in growth policies is not the reason. Finance and politics are calling the shots. Why Rachel Reeves will not find much growth in China www.observingchina.org.uk/p/why-rachel...

observingchina.org.uk

Why Rachel Reeves will not find much growth in China

An economist looks at the specifics of the Reeves trade deal with the PRC

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