iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 25/09/2026

Latest weekly update on economics activity in the US. Article in the post below.👇

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 25/09/2026

GDP NOWCAST UPDATE Our Q3 real GDP nowcast fell 0.19 pp today to 2.49% SAAR. Consumer spending: −0.22 pp Business investment: +0.02 pp Residential investment: +0.01 pp Strong capital goods data helped offset a weaker consumer signal. Article below 👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 24/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast edged up to 2.67% today, from 2.66%. The small revision came from residential investment, while the rest of the model was essentially unchanged. Housing data remain mixed, with stronger single-family starts but softer permits. Article below 👇

111

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 23/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 2026 Nowcast edged up to 2.66% SAAR, from 2.65% yesterday. Net exports provided the small boost, while the broader growth outlook remained largely unchanged. Another remarkably stable update. Article below 👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 22/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast is holding steady at 2.66%. Consumer spending remains solid, while net exports continue to be the biggest drag on growth. Long-term rates remain a headwind for investment. Full update + charts in the post below 👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 21/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast edged up to 2.66% annualized. Net exports provided the small boost, while residential investment was essentially unchanged. Not a major revision, but the Q3 outlook continues to hold in the mid-2% range. Full update below 👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 19/09/2026

Going live in 30 minutes for a little chat about the US Treasury and bond markets. See the link in the post below👇

121

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 18/09/2026

The consumer keeps spending, but the rest of the economy isn't moving at the same speed. Retail sales surged, manufacturing weakened, housing stayed mixed, and the GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast rose from 2.46% to 2.64% this week. Full weekly analysis in the next post 👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 17/09/2026

🚨 GDP NOWCAST UPDATE Q3 GDP nowcast jumped 0.22 points today, from 2.42% to 2.64%. The entire revision came from residential investment as single-family housing starts surged 7.6%. The headline housing numbers hid the story. Article in the post below 👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 16/09/2026

Latest weekly video update posted on the GDP Dynamics members site, big news on my book! See link in the next post.

120

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 16/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 GDP Nowcast slipped slightly to 2.42% today. Consumer spending and investment improved, but that was more than offset by weaker inventories and net exports. A lot of movement underneath a small headline change. Article in the post below.👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 15/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast holds at 2.46%. No meaningful change today, but the 10-year Treasury yield is sending a signal worth watching as financial conditions tighten. For now, Q3 growth remains steady. Article in the next post below.👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 14/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast edged down to 2.46%. Net exports remain the big drag, subtracting 1.29 percentage points from growth, while domestic demand remains relatively solid. A small update today, with bigger data coming this week. Article in the next post 👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 11/09/2026

Big inflation news. Almost no change in the GDP outlook. The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast holds at 2.47%, even after the latest CPI data and Treasury yield moves. Sometimes what doesn't move the model tells you just as much as what does. Article in next post below.👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 10/09/2026

Latest weekly video update for the Nowcast and a brand new model is posted on the site. See the link to in in the post below.👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 10/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast moved higher today, rising from 2.42% to 2.47%. Net exports accounted for essentially the entire +0.05 pp revision, while the broader outlook remains relatively solid. Article in post below.👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 09/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast holds at 2.42%. Treasury yields climbed, but the move wasn't enough to materially change the growth outlook. Under the surface, consumer spending remains strong while net exports remain the biggest drag. Article in the next post below.👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 08/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast edged higher to 2.42%, up 0.03 pp since Friday. The move came from a slightly smaller drag from net exports, while the broader outlook remains largely unchanged. Article in the post below 👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 04/09/2026

GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast slips 0.03 pp to 2.39% SAAR. Domestic demand strengthened underneath the headline, but net exports and government more than offset the gains. Article in the next post below.👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 03/09/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast fell 0.59 pp today to 2.42%. Nearly the entire decline came from net exports, which knocked 0.58 pp off the estimate following a sharp widening of the U.S. trade deficit. Domestic demand was largely unchanged. Article in the post below.👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 02/09/2026

Is America Entering the Late Stage of a Cantillon Cycle? Article by: Alex Jenkinson Link in the next post below.👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 02/09/2026

Q3 GDP nowcast slipped another 0.05 pp today to 3.01% SAAR. Net exports, business fixed investment, and residential investment all moved lower, while consumer spending remains the main driver of growth. Article in the post below.👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 01/09/2026

My Q3 GDP nowcast slipped another 0.10 percentage point today to 3.06%. Weak construction data drove the decline, with business fixed investment, residential investment, and government all moving lower. Consumer spending remains the main support. Article in next post below.👇

120

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 31/08/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast holds at 3.16%. Consumer spending remains the engine of growth, contributing 3.22 pp, while net exports and residential investment continue to drag on the forecast. Article in the post below.👇

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 31/08/2026

Latest free article dropped, The Lucas Critique and Modeling. See the link to article in the post below.👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 28/08/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast rose 0.22 percentage point today to 3.17% SAAR, with consumer spending accounting for essentially the entire increase. Housing and net exports remain drags on growth. Full article in the next post below.👇

120

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 27/08/2026

My Q3 GDP nowcast held at 2.95% today. Consumer spending remains the main driver, while net exports and residential investment continue to drag on growth. Jobless claims fell to 203,000 as the labor market remains firm. Article in the next post 👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 27/08/2026

"Mathematics brought rigor to Economics. Unfortunately, it also brought mortis." -Kenneth E. Boulding

040

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 26/08/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast slipped 0.10 pp today to 2.95%. Consumer spending drove the decline, while inventories, net exports, residential investment, and business investment provided some support. Full Article in the post below.👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 26/08/2026

"How anybody can think they can analyze capital while leaving out Banks, Debt, and Money is a bit to me like an ornithologist trying to work out how a bird flies whilst ignoring that the bird has wings" -Steve Keen

021

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 25/08/2026

Q3 GDP growth is holding strong at 3.05%. My GDP Dynamics nowcast edged down just 0.01 pp today, with residential investment accounting for essentially the entire decline. See Article in the post below this one👇

110

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 24/08/2026

The Goodwin Business Cycle model is now live at: gdpdynamics.com/goodwin

010

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 24/08/2026

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance." -George Bernard Shaw

020

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 24/08/2026

"A model is not a substitute for judgment, but a framework within which judgment can be exercised systematically." -George P. Richardson

030

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 21/08/2026

"We assume that the present is a much more serviceable guide to the future than a candid examination of past experience would show it to have been. In other words we largely ignore the prospect of future changes about the actual character of which we know nothing." -John Maynard Keynes

020

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 21/08/2026

"We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both." -Louis Brandeis

040

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 21/08/2026

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast held at 3.61% today. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 and mortgage rates edged lower, but neither was enough to move the headline forecast.

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 20/08/2026

"Trying to improve a system by tinkering with its parts is like trying to improve a car's performance by painting it." -Jay Forrester

040

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 20/08/2026

The GDP Dynamics nowcast edged down just 0.01 pp today to 3.61% SAAR. Higher oil prices, shifting Treasury yields, and financial conditions fed into today’s update, with net exports providing the small drag.

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 19/08/2026

"What we call 'the economy' is so important to us that economists have become the high priests of our society. Yet, oddly, there is absolutely no consensus among economists about what money really is." -David Graeber

030

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 18/08/2026

📉 Q3 GDP Nowcast slips to 3.62% Today's update knocked another 0.14 pp off my Q3 estimate. Growth still looks solid, but it's becoming increasingly dependent on the consumer. GDPDynamics.com

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 17/08/2026

"We always plan too much and always think too little. We resent a call to thinking and hate the unfamiliar argument that does not tally with what we already believe or would like to believe." -Joseph Schumpeter.

030

Reposted by GDP Dynamics

Nika Dubrovsky @nikadubrovsky.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

The Fight Club! Love it!

152

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 17/08/2026

"It is cheaper to push the world over the cliff than to try to save it… The political world is not much better, given the short tenure of political appointments." -Jørgen Randers

010

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 15/08/2026

"The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists." -Joan Robinson

083

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 15/08/2026

GDP Dynamics moved higher again. The Q3 2026 nowcast rose 0.18 pp to 3.71% SAAR, despite weaker July retail sales. Consumer spending and inventories drove the increase, while net exports were the biggest drag.

100

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 14/08/2026

"The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones." -John Maynard Keynes

030

GDP Dynamics @gdpdynamics.com · 13/08/2026

GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast slipped 0.05 pp to 3.53% SAAR. Domestic signals actually strengthened, led by consumer spending, business investment and inventories. The main drag was net exports. See the latest article update in the next post of this thread.👇

100