iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

I was lucky enough to be introduced to LLMs early by a woman I met in a Budapest pub… And I wrote this a couple of weeks ago - don’t know if you’ve seen it cepa.org/article/copy...

cepa.org

Copycat Tech: Why the AI Bubble Might Burst

Artificial intelligence models are expensive to develop. Will they ever be profitable?

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 10h

It might be different if useful general humanoid robots are developed and hard to copy.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 10h

I tend to agree, though I think moats in this case are rather shallow, switching costs low etc.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 15h

Many people are making the mistake of thinking that generalised automation will permanently reduce the need for labour rather than causing its reconfiguration as automatable tasks fall in price and the rest rise to fill it. But @economist.com should know better.

economist.com

A hurricane is coming to tax systems

Governments should be preparing, but most aren’t

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 01/10/2026

Thought provoking piece. Burnham is a challenge for the right — and one executed with competence. The thoughts provoked: If the agenda moves back towards economics perhaps the right can unite around economic policy again. Electoral reform will eventually split Labour too.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 30/09/2026

Obviously not - even for Britain Blair’s farewell Labour conference speech was far better.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 30/09/2026

Slightly off topic but I asked Claude to find me airfare prices from the time and it drew a blank, suggesting I go to my local library and look up ads old newspapers …

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 29/09/2026

Refreshing about Burnham’s speech, even when I disagree with the content: it’s a centre left speech by a centre-left leader that takes the initiative without overdoing the multidimensional strategy stuff.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 29/09/2026

Until they fix it they’ll be limited to things that make reversible changes. Good for software but not for the real world.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 29/09/2026

It was the thing that escaped from the open cage behind you

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 29/09/2026

A bizzarely naive column here. It’s trying to show that a far right triumph is not inevitable, but provides no evidence to show Le Pen would moderate in office as Meloni has. The French and Italian constitutions are completely different www.ft.com/content/7783... Why Europe’s centre will hold

ft.com

Why Europe’s centre will hold

The 1930s are not a good guide to the politics of the 21st century

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

Or being drunk, pissed, trolleyed, lashed, three sheets to the wind, blattered, blotto, caned, sizzled, tipsy, off one’s tits, shitfaced, tired and emotional

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

Every week brings more evidence that AI labs’ economic characteristics are those of a traditional industrial commodity. How are they going to pay for all that capex when they make the same prodding as their competitors? Another reason to read my piece from earlier in Sept

cepa.org

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

cepa.org

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Renew Europe @reneweurope.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Freedom means the right to choose. Safe abortion is healthcare, dignity and bodily autonomy. On International Safe Abortion Day, we stand for the right to decide freely, safely and without shame. Stand with us. Defend the right to choose.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

Thanks! The person I’ll be taking lives in Paris so I might want to go for something less traditional however…

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

Wise blueskyers of Paris - I’m looking for good, non-extortionate and non-boring restos in Paris @columnist.bsky.social @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com I know you have excellent judgement, but others are welcome to chime in!

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

Tax breaks for landlords would help a lot but would be extremely unpopular

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

Agreed. It’s really ridiculous for a bloc of democratic countries.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 28/09/2026

They don’t understand that quite a few parts of the enrgy infrastructure have fixed costs…that’s probably true but irresponsible of 38 degrees to run a campaign on that basis.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 27/09/2026

That England, that was wont to conquer others, Hath made a fucking conquest of itself.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 27/09/2026

Is reversed steak a contrefillet?

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 27/09/2026

Top thread. It hints that in the modern world countries have relationships with each other, and we can debate and change the rules governing them, but invoking the magic word sovereignty doesn’t make them disappear.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

The banter outcome is parliamentary arithmetic that leads to a Tory-Lib Dem coalition (reform collapse; labour meh; righ mostly go back to Con). 260 tories, 230 lab, 75 lib dems, 35 reform, etc

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

It’s a very different type of industry. You have to buy identifiers which is a non-starter for software.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

I also worry that requiring identifiers will kill the open web if we are not careful.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

The problem with applications is different. It’s that an applicant uses ai to put rubbish in them and so applies to 20-30 jobs and hirers have to deal with 5000 instead of 80, say. It’s not about purely automated spamming for which transaction costs are a good idea.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

This is a bit like the Danish position isn’t it? . We’re not racist, but if we don’t do what the racists want the racists vote for people to do what the racists want therefore we have to do what the racists want even though we don’t want to do it?

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

Or perhaps reassigned to the outer Hebrides weather station since firing was difficult when that phrase came about. Also: in the army they call interrogations “interviews”

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

In the civil service if they give you an “interview without coffee” doesn’t it mean they’re firing you ?

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

Lots of people arguing about the Labour Party. The mid-20th century social class division is gone, and with it the Tory and Labour voter coalitions. You can try and squeeze it back in by aligning on blocs but you’d do better w an electoral system that allowed Britain’s complexity to be represented

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

stump me completely, not a generic mr, presumably signifying masculinity!

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

for scrupulous ones perhaps but not for spammy/job application/planning objection bots where numbers are small but cost of even a little friction is high. These cases stump mr completely - any ideas are very welcome

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

I’m coming to think it’s best to think of them as a simulation of intelligence in the way that economic economic models are simulations of the economy. They can produce some of the products of intelligence through this simulation but they aren’t it .

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

A number of reasons the Nordic model makes sense: - Manpower needs are real but limited - You get people who like what they’re doing - Training huge conscript armies is a masdive resource drain Finland, Baltics, Israel etc might need universal conscription but UK, Germany etc don’t.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 26/09/2026

How do you stop agents overwhelming the system by simulating the protocol? I can see how rate limits would avoid many problems but not all.

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Alex Faludy @alexander-faludy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

‘Pre-election, selected #Catholic dioceses received discretionary public grants via secret government decrees alongside #Fidesz linked groups .’ —My reporting for THE TABLET. www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-re...

thetablet.co.uk

Pope receives Magyar as Hungarian Church gauges new government - The Tablet

Pope Leo XIV received Hungary’s Prime Minister Péter Magyar in a private audience at the Vatican, their first meeting since his election victory in April.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 25/09/2026

Three things help you in elections: being called something really common, like John Smith, being called something really unusual, like Torquil here — and having a name starting with “A”

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 25/09/2026

And the one on the left is the one with an immigrant background, right ?

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 25/09/2026

Trying to beat my 11 and then I get this. Torquil Chrichton is the name of an effete sci-fi prince not a backbench MP

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 24/09/2026

The brilliant @alexander-faludy.bsky.social is over here now. Follow him for all things Hungary and Religion

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 24/09/2026

The brilliant @alexander-faludy.bsky.social is over here now. Follow him for all things Hungary and Religion

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 24/09/2026

One’s immediate reaction is to fulminate: if we treated France the way you want to treat Ukraine the Nazis would still be in Paris — but she’d probably be happy enough with that.

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 24/09/2026

Or that it’s got more political space so that even if this works he thinks it might open the conversation a bit

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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 24/09/2026

Yeah he’s surrounded by too many gatekeepers who try and second guess what he wants to hear.

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