Sign in

CSIS Futures Lab

@futures.csis.org
51 followers 8 following 221 posts

Futures Lab brings empirical rigor to foresight and policy using computational social science, data science, and AI/ML.

PostsRepliesMedia
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 29/09/2026
How do you track a tanker broadcasting a false location? The Kola’s spoofed signal places it off Nigeria while it operates in the Arctic. Our analysis shows why vessel signals need to be paired with satellite imagery. www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arcti…
csis.org
The Melting Arctic Lifeline for Russia’s Shadow Fleet
Two floating storage vessels have handled an estimated 53 percent of Russia’s seaborne Arctic crude exports since February 2022. CSIS Futures Lab analysis shows how the United States and Europe can target these bottlenecks to constrain the Kremlin’s wartime revenue.
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 28/09/2026
Federal AI demand is rising, but since ChatGPT's launch, data center growth has outpaced federal AI contracting, a sign that commercial demand increasingly drives AI infrastructure. Read the analysis: www.csis.org/analysis/understanding…
csis.org
Understanding the U.S. Federal Government’s AI Spending
Federal agencies obligated $4.1 billion across 2,255 AI-related contracts since FY 2019, and 83 percent of those dollars went to the Defense Department. The CSIS Futures Lab follows the money trail and tracks the evolution of federal AI demand.
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 24/09/2026
Russia’s Arctic energy trade depends on icebreakers and a handful of transfer hubs. Our research traces how this network sustains exports—and where monitoring and sanctions could constrain it. www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arcti…
csis.org
The Melting Arctic Lifeline for Russia’s Shadow Fleet
Two floating storage vessels have handled an estimated 53 percent of Russia’s seaborne Arctic crude exports since February 2022. CSIS Futures Lab analysis shows how the United States and Europe can target these bottlenecks to constrain the Kremlin’s wartime revenue.
052
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 23/09/2026
Federal AI contracts more than tripled from FY 2019 to FY 2025. DOD holds 83 percent of $4.1 billion in obligations, and over half of solicitations reviewed lack clear governance language. Read the Critical Questions: www.csis.org/analysis/understanding…
csis.org
Understanding the U.S. Federal Government’s AI Spending
Federal agencies obligated $4.1 billion across 2,255 AI-related contracts since FY 2019, and 83 percent of those dollars went to the Defense Department. The CSIS Futures Lab follows the money trail and tracks the evolution of federal AI demand.
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 09/09/2026
Russia is on track for 840 ballistic-missile launches at Ukraine this year, up 47% from 2025. The intercept rate fell from 24% to 10.2%—a warning that replacement capacity matters. www.csis.org/analysis/winning-salvo…
010
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 04/09/2026
Air-defense readiness is more than today’s stockpile. In a prolonged conflict, how should allies measure the ability to regenerate interceptors—and what should governments fund now? www.csis.org/analysis/winning-salvo…
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 26/08/2026
The petrodollar connected U.S. financial power to the energy economy. Could a “tokendollar” do the same for AI? Benjamin Jensen proposes linking dollar-settled token contracts to a U.S.-aligned global AI stack. www.csis.org/analysis/petrodollar-t…
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 24/07/2026
Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan examine Russia's growing ballistic missile campaign and what declining interception rates could mean for Ukraine. Read the full analysis: www.csis.org/analysis/tale-two-stra… #Ukraine #AirDefense #MissileDefense
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 24/07/2026
Every strike tells a story. CSIS experts look at what Russia's missile and drone campaign reveals about coercion, strategy, and the future of the war: www.csis.org/analysis/geography-coe… #Ukraine #MissileDefense #DroneWarfare #DefenseAnalysis
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 22/07/2026
Missiles and drones shape strategy. New analysis from Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman show how geography influences the war in Ukraine: www.csis.org/analysis/geography-coe… #NationalSecurity #DroneWarfare
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 21/07/2026
Checkout the opening remarks for the Futures Lab Congressional wargame on AI being hosted now. www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYSp8Ww8iWQ
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 21/07/2026
What will shape the next phase of the war in Ukraine? Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan examine the competing strategic attack campaigns driving the race to end the conflict: www.csis.org/analysis/tale-two-stra… #Ukraine #NationalSecurity #StrategicCompetition
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 21/07/2026
Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman examine how Moscow uses long-range strikes to maximize coercive pressure: www.csis.org/analysis/geography-coe… #Ukraine #NationalSecurity #MissileDefense #DroneWarfare
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 21/07/2026
Watch opening remarks from the CSIS congressional wargame on protecting critical infrastructure: www.csis.org/events/opening-remarks… #CyberSecurity #ArtificialIntelligence #CriticalInfrastructure #CyberDefense
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 20/07/2026
Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman map the geography behind Russia's and Ukraine's missile and drone campaign: www.csis.org/analysis/geography-coe… #Ukraine #MissileDefense
010
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 17/07/2026
How does geography shape Russia’s coercive strategy in Ukraine? Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman map the evolving missile and drone campaign: www.csis.org/analysis/geography-coe… #Ukraine #MissileDefense
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 16/07/2026
Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan examine the race between Ukraine's deep strikes on Russia's energy sector and Russia's expanding ballistic missile campaign: www.csis.org/analysis/tale-two-stra… #Ukraine #NationalSecurity #DefenseAnalysis #MissileDefense
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 16/07/2026
Are Chinese AI models catching up faster than expected? Yasir Atalan explores what their rapid progress means for the future of global AI competition: www.csis.org/analysis/what-know-abo… #ArtificialIntelligence #China #AIPolicy #NationalSecurity #StrategicCompetition
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 15/07/2026
Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman map the geography behind Moscow's long-range strike campaign: www.csis.org/analysis/geography-coe… #Ukraine #NationalSecurity #MissileDefense #DroneWarfare #Defense
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 14/07/2026
Chinese AI models are advancing quickly. Yasir Atalan examines what their growing capabilities mean for global AI competition and U.S. policy: www.csis.org/analysis/what-know-abo… #ArtificialIntelligence #China #AIPolicy #NationalSecurity #StrategicCompetition
010
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 13/07/2026
How does Russia use missiles and drones to coerce Ukraine? Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman examine the geography behind Moscow’s campaign: www.csis.org/analysis/geography-coe… #Ukraine #NationalSecurity
011
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 10/07/2026
What should policymakers know about China's newest AI models? Yasir Atalan examines their capabilities and what they mean for the future of AI competition: www.csis.org/analysis/what-know-abo… #ArtificialIntelligence #China #AIPolicy #NationalSecurity #StrategicCompetition
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 08/07/2026
China's AI ecosystem is evolving rapidly. Yasir Atalan explores what the latest Chinese AI models reveal about the future of global AI competition: www.csis.org/analysis/what-know-abo… #ArtificialIntelligence #China #AIPolicy #NationalSecurity #StrategicCompetition
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 06/07/2026
How close are Chinese AI models to the U.S. frontier? Yasir Atalan examines what recent advances mean for global AI competition and U.S. policy: www.csis.org/analysis/what-know-abo… #ArtificialIntelligence #China #NationalSecurity #AIPolicy #StrategicCompetition
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 22/06/2026
What does it mean to win in the cognitive domain? Erol Yayboke and Nickolas Wilcox argue that success in irregular warfare depends on intentional data, AI-enabled analysis, and sustained influence: www.csis.org/analysis/irregular-war… #NationalSecurity
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 15/06/2026
How can economic power be translated into military power? Benjamin Jensen and Jacob Clayton examine the role of economic warfare in strategic competition: www.csis.org/analysis/economic-warf… #NationalSecurity #EconomicStatecraft #Defense
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 08/06/2026
Benjamin Jensen and Mackenzie Eaglen examine why shipbuilding, shipping, and maritime industry remain central to national security and strategic competition: www.csis.org/analysis/revisiting-re… #NationalSecurity #MaritimeSecurity #SeaPower
110
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 05/06/2026
Benjamin Jensen and Soufiane Ammagui explore how battle labs could help test joint all-domain operations, drones, and electronic warfare: www.csis.org/analysis/testing-futur… #NationalSecurity #Defense #MilitaryInnovation #FutureWarfare
110
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 05/06/2026
Is Washington focused on the wrong AI debate? Benjamin Jensen argues policymakers are fixated on hypothetical AI doomsday scenarios while overlooking the real impacts on human dignity, work, and truth: www.csis.org/analysis/vatican-just-… #NationalSecurity #Tech
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 04/06/2026
What is the connection between economic power and sea power? Benjamin Jensen and Mackenzie Eaglen examine how maritime industry, shipping, and shipbuilding underpin national security: www.csis.org/analysis/revisiting-re… #NationalSecurity
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 04/06/2026
How can economic power shape military power? Benjamin Jensen and Jacob Clayton explore the future of economic warfare and strategic competition: www.csis.org/analysis/economic-warf… #NationalSecurity #EconomicStatecraft #Defense #StrategicCompetition #EconomicWarfare
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 03/06/2026
How can joint all-domain operations be tested in complex operational environments? Read the latest analysis from CSIS Futures Lab: www.csis.org/analysis/testing-futur… #NationalSecurity #Defense #MilitaryInnovation #FutureWarfare #JointAllDomainOperations
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 03/06/2026
AI is changing more than technology—it is reshaping institutions, labor, and society. Pope Leo XIV argues governance should start there. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/vatican-just-… #AI #Technology #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 02/06/2026
Military power starts long before the battlefield. Economic warfare shapes how states convert capital, technology, and industry into strategic advantage. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/economic-warf… #GlobalSecurity #Defense #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 02/06/2026
Sea power begins with economic power. Maritime strength depends on the shipyards, ports, logistics networks, and workforce that sustain it. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/revisiting-re… #MaritimeSecurity #GlobalSecurity #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 01/06/2026
Could Africa help shape the future of military innovation? Read: www.csis.org/analysis/testing-futur… #Defense #Africa #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 01/06/2026
Pope Leo XIV is reframing the AI debate around governance, human dignity, and the societal impacts already unfolding today. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/vatican-just-… #AI #Technology #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 29/05/2026
Maritime power depends on more than naval fleets—it also relies on the industrial and economic systems that sustain them. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/revisiting-re… #MaritimeSecurity #GlobalSecurity #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 29/05/2026
Economic power is increasingly becoming a core element of military strength and strategic competition. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/economic-warf… #GlobalSecurity #Defense #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 28/05/2026
Emerging technologies are reshaping military coordination across operational domains. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/testing-futur… #Defense #GlobalSecurity #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 28/05/2026
Pope Leo XIV is reframing the AI debate around governance, human dignity, and the societal impacts already unfolding today. Washington has blind spots exposed. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/vatican-just-… #AI #Technology #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 27/05/2026
New from CSIS Futures Lab: Economic Warfare and Military Power Trade, industry, and financial power are becoming central tools of strategic competition and national defense. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/economic-warf… #GlobalSecurity #Defense #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 27/05/2026
New from CSIS Futures Lab: Revisiting the Relationship Between Economic and Sea Power How does economic power shape maritime strength? Read: www.csis.org/analysis/revisiting-re… #MaritimeSecurity #GlobalSecurity #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 26/05/2026
New from CSIS Futures Lab: Testing the Future of Joint All-Domain Operations in Africa How are emerging technologies reshaping military operations across domains? Read: www.csis.org/analysis/testing-futur… #GlobalSecurity #Defense #FuturesLab
010
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 26/05/2026
New from CSIS Futures Lab: The Vatican Just Outmaneuvered Washington on AI Benjamin Jensen explores how Pope Leo XIV is reshaping debates around AI governance, misinformation, and human dignity. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/vatican-just-… #AI #Technology
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 26/05/2026
As AI enters military and diplomatic decisionmaking, concerns around escalation bias and crisis instability are growing. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/ai-escalation… #AI #GlobalSecurity #FuturesLab
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 21/05/2026
As AI becomes more integrated into military and diplomatic decisionmaking, concerns are growing around escalation bias, unreliable outputs, and crisis instability in high-stakes environments. Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/ai-escalation… #AI #GlobalSecurity
011
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 19/05/2026
Last Friday at LREC, Scale AI presented research in collaboration with CSIS Futures Lab’s Dr. Yasir Atalan, Dr. Ian Reynolds, and Dr. Benjamin Jensen on AI biases in foreign policy decisionmaking. Read: lrec.elra.info/lrec2026-main-849 #AI
000
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 19/05/2026
How can AI systems shape escalation risks in crisis environments? Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan examine the growing need for AI benchmarking and testing in high-stakes decisionmaking. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/ai-escalation… #AI #GlobalSecurity
010
CSIS Futures Lab @futures.csis.org · 18/05/2026
As AI enters military and foreign policy decisionmaking, concerns around escalation bias and crisis instability are growing. Read: www.csis.org/analysis/ai-escalation… #AI #GlobalSecurity #FuturesLab
010