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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦

@furlanetto.bsky.social
689 followers 340 following 32 posts

Principal Researcher at Norges Bank. Living in Oslo, originally from Treviso (via Lausanne and Barcelona). www.norges-bank.no/en/topics/Resear… I express only my views and not necessarily those of Norges Bank.

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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
@francescoravazzolo.bsky.social and I did it again! 5th Dolomiti Macro Meeting, this time in Pera di Fassa. www.unibz.it/assets/Event...
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Thanks to fantastic coauthors @dragobergholt.bsky.social Nicolo Maffei Faccioli, Pål Ulvedal and 👑Fabio Canova. Thanks to the editor and referees: the paper has improved. Last version: www.norges-bank.no/contentasset...
norges-bank.no
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
🎢The roller coaster paper is conditionally accepted at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Our point: the inflation surge is mainly demand-driven and to establish this result it is important to check carefully the deterministic component of a SVAR 🎢
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
Norges Bank Spring Institute 2025 with @helenerey.bsky.social: beautiful days in a non beautiful time 🇺🇦
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
🥁🥁 NEW CONFERENCE ALERT 🥁🥁 Monetary Policy after the Inflation Surge in Oslo on September 22-23 jointly organized with Deutsche Bundesbank and Danmarks Nationalbank. 12th Edition! Keynote speakers: Corina Boar (NYU), Jordi Galí (CREI) and Vincent Sterk (UCL) Submission deadline: March 16.
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Reposted by Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦
Annukka Ristiniemi @annukkaristiniemi.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
This year’s Dynare conference will be in Helsinki, Finland. Call for papers is open until 16th March. Do apply, share, and see you there! :)
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Herman van Dijk was a familiar face and a leading example for all of us at Norges Bank. Herman has been a giant in Bayesian econometrics but also a great mentor. We went skiing, we had good dinners, we even wrote a paper together. Herman liked coming to Oslo and will be deeply missed.
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Reposted by Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦
Diego Känzig @dkaenzig.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
🌎Does unilateral decarbonization pay for itself? In our new working paper, @adrienbilal.bsky.social and I analyze whether large economies like the U.S. and E.U. can justify broad decarbonization policies based purely on domestic economic benefits. WP: nber.org/papers/w3336... #econsky
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Practical implication for humble users like me: Juan's old codes are still ok and we can keep using them! 😅2/2
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
🥁🥁Important paper by Arias-RubioRamirez-Waggoner forthcoming in Econometrica 🥁🥁 econometricsociety.org/publications... There has been a call for caution regarding the use of uniform priors on rotation matrices for Bayesian inference in SVARs. The paper challenges this claim. 1/2
econometricsociety.org
Forthcoming Papers
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
🥁🥁Vox column alert 🥁🥁 on why the gender convergence matters for growth, productivity and employment with @dragobergholt.bsky.social and @fossoluca.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... Since I had the genius idea of posting it on Thanksgiving day, here you have again a short 🧵:
cepr.org
Macroeconomic effects of the gender revolution
Postwar US labour market data reveal a significant secular decline in the employment and wage gaps between men and women. This column quantifies the implications of this shift for the US macroeconomy. Using a time series model that maps empirical trends in data onto underlying structural forces, the authors find that gender-specific labour market trends are responsible for a sizable share of the overall trend increase in GDP and labour productivity in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, as well as the slowdown in GDP growth over the last 20 years.
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
This is the outcome of @fossoluca.bsky.social PhD internship at Norges Bank which started in September 2020. The topic is extremely interesting, and we have tried to approach it using tools that we normally use for inflation or monetary policy. We hope you like the contamination. N/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Bonus result III: since gender trends are the main drivers of employment growth, the estimated crowding out of males is relatively small, as in Fukui-Nakamura @jonsteinsson.bsky.social Notably, crowding out is shock-specific and smaller in response to labor supply shocks. 10/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Bonus result II: the slowdown in the gender convergence explains in part the emergence of jobless recoveries. However, demographic factors and automation (together with import competition) play also a substantial role. 9/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Bonus result I: the gender convergence is driven mainly by labor demand factors but labor supply factors become more important once we control for skills. There has been a large shock to the supply of skilled females over time. 8/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
In fact, we use a SVAR model with common trends that so far has been used to estimate the star variables. We go one step further and link these star variables (like trend GDP growth or trend employment) to unobserved structural drivers (like gender trends). This is new. 7/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
The finding that gender matters for macro connects us with the seminal papers by Hsieh-Hurst-Jones-Klenow and @heathcote.bsky.social -Storesletten-Violante. However, while they use calibrated structural models, we instead rely on a “let the data speak approach”. 6/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Is muted growth the new normal? Gender differences in the US labor market are still sizeable and thus ample pockets of growth are still available. However, further growth may prove more difficult than in the past because the gender convergence has a natural upward bound. 5/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
The gender convergence stopped around 2000, with major negative effects on the macroeconomy: this explains around half of the overall decline in trend GDP growth and trend productivity growth between the 1990s and the 2010s. 4/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
We find that the trends driving the gender convergence (in green and light blue) have played a big role. During the 1970s, 80s and 90s, they account for 30-50% of trend GDP growth, 20-40% of trend productivity growth, and almost all the increase in trend employment. 3/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Female-to-male ratios on employment rates and wages have increased substantially over time. However, this “grand convergence” stopped around 2000. Our key question: Is the gender convergence important for the US macroeconomy? 2/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
🥁🥁 NEW PAPER ALERT 🥁🥁 “Macroeconomic Effects of the Gender Revolution” joint with @dragobergholt.bsky.social and @fossoluca.bsky.social Gender matters for macro! The quiet revolution had important effects on economic growth, productivity and employment. 1/N www.norges-bank.no/contentasset...
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Hei! Happy to be added 😊
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Reposted by Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦
Francesco Ravazzolo @francescoravazzolo.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
SNDE-IIF workshop for junior researchers:
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Lorenzo has a super promising research agenda that you can find on his webpage sites.google.com/view/lorenzo... Do not miss the chance to interview him! Link to the paper: www.norges-bank.no/contentasset... N/N
sites.google.com
Lorenzo Mori
Welcome!
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Norway seems clearly different from the US. What does this mean in terms of external validity? Well, highly complementary recent evidence by S. Ettmeier, F. Schorfheide et al. indicates that inequality is procyclical also in Germany. May be Norway is not so special after all. 10/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
This is preliminary. More work has to be done on income risk, on the properties of the tails of the distributions (following @nwerquin.bsky.social et al) and on the implications for macro. We stress that these are the views of the authors and not necessarily those of Norges Bank. 9/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
This procyclicality may dampen economic fluctuations driven by demand shocks and could provide an ex-post rationalization of why recessions (which are traditionally driven by demand shocks) have so limited macroeconomic effects in Norway. 8/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
The right tails of the distributions are very cyclical as in @fatihguvenen @serdarozkanEN et al However, poor households remain largely insulated from macro fluctuations, in stark contrast with results for the US. The tax and transfer system act as automatic stabilizers. 7/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Our third result is that all measures of inequality are procyclical but this tendency is much more pronounced for disposable income and consumption. This is the case both unconditionally and in response to major business cycle shocks. Inequality is higher in good times! 6/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
This is surprising given the low level of disposable income inequality in Norway. However, exactly the same high level of consumption inequality is found in Spanish data by Sevi Rodriguez-Mora et al. Perhaps, card data are better than surveys at capturing heterogeneity in spending. 5/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Our second result is that the level of consumption inequality is high in Norway. It is comparable to the level of earnings inequality and substantially higher than the level of disposable income inequality. In our sample, the ratio P90/P10 is on average around 3.6. 4/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Our first result is that all inequality measures are rather stable in Norway, unlike in the US. Stable inequality does not mean that people do not move in the distributions. We find substantial mobility, especially in the short run. 3/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
The paper is preliminary. We document some facts about inequality in Norway following what @heathcote.bsky.social F. Perri and G.Violante did for the US. We combine administrative data on income with debit card transactions data that cover around 80 percent of domestic consumption. 2/N
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Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦 @furlanetto.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
First post on Bluesky to share a first draft of “A Tale of Procyclical Inequality: Facts and Implications” joint with me and @DBergholt and Lorenzo Mori sites.google.com/view/lorenzo... One line summary: consumption inequality is high, stable and procyclical in Norway. 1/N
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Reposted by Francesco Furlanetto 🇺🇦
UT-Austin Economics @utaustinecon.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
We've made it to Bluesky! Please re-post so others can follows us... 🤘
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