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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 1h

This week on Shifting Ground, Dr. Tamara Wittes, President of NDI, joins for a discussion on how scholarship can effectively inform real-world foreign policy during moments of crisis.

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Episode 10 | Translating Scholarship Into Statecraft

Explore insights on democracy with Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes as she discusses global challenges and resilience in democratic systems.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 13h

He provides an analogous example of automobile insurance companies using AI to track driving habits and sort the data collected (on your "mobile target," or your car) to determine insurance premiums and policy terminations.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 13h

Paul Bracken lays out one major application of AI: its computational power assists in tracking and destroying mobile targets—those whose survival depends on movement, hiding, or relocating. ⬇️

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An AI-Driven Second Nuclear Age

Explore the impact of AI on global security and warfare in this new age of technological threats and challenges.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 15h

In Episode 10 of #ShiftingGround, Larry Rubin and Rachel Whitlark sit down with guest Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes. Wittes offers unique insights on bridging the gap between scholarship and practice, navigating Middle East policy, and the ongoing struggles facing global democracy.

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Episode 10 | Translating Scholarship Into Statecraft

Explore insights on democracy with Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes as she discusses global challenges and resilience in democratic systems.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 16h

Jackson Owen notes that, on the surface, China and the United States' putative roles as revisionist and status quo powers within international institutions appear to have flipped. But reality paints a different picture from China's presentation of itself as the great power filling the US's shoes.

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Words Without Money: China as the Ambivalent UN Power - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Over the past year, China has been quietly shifting its stance within the international system. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is casting itself as an

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 17h

While the infrastructure at Olenya Guba has stagnated, the capabilities seen there have grown. The spy ship Yantar is often spotted, along with many of the GUGI mothership submarines like the Project 09787 Delta-IV stretch used for transporting the organization’s deeper divers, like the Losharik.

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House of GUGI: A Historical Imagery Analysis of Olenya Guba - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The special mission submarines and Yantar belong to the Main Directorate for Deep Sea-Research (Glavnoye Upravlenie Glubokovodnikh Issledovanii), more

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 19h

🆕 Understanding Latvia's Parliamentary Elections by Indra Ekmanis Ahead of the October 3 elections on Saturday, check out her breakdown detailing the ideological diversity across the parties running.

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Understanding Latvia's Parliamentary Elections - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The last three months have been a flurry of activity in Latvia as the country entered its pre-election season in June. The 14 parties running for parliament

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 21h

Watch the launch event for the report for a full breakdown of its findings: buff.ly/4cCAgph

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 21h

While modern technology has decreased or eliminated many of the hurdles to launch interceptor satellites into space, the scale of what's needed to fight modern, cheap offensive systems may not be worth the investment. This is the debate that "Nothing New Under the Golden Dome" addresses ⬇️

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Nothing New Under the Golden Dome: Space-Based Interceptors in the Trump Administration - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Golden Dome has quickly become the signature defense program of President Trump’s second term. The most contentious element of this ambitious missile defense

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Alexander Kynev, a Russian political scientist connected to the New People party, was arrested in late September for illegal production and transfer of narcotics. His arrest followed criticisms he made on Telegram about the September Duma elections. More in the #BearMarketBrief.

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Let’s Get Fiscal

New taxes target passive income, e-commerce, and select producers in Russia’s 2027 budget

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Bram Wells analyzed reports from Doublethink Lab and leaked documents from the Chinese propaganda company GoLaxy to find that Chinese psychological operations have evolved toward cognitive warfare. To learn about what this strategy means and how it is employed, check out the full intern corner ⬇️

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Inside China’s Cognitive Warfare Playbook Against Taiwan - Foreign Policy Research Institute

China has been increasing pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of a traditional military attack throughout the past decade. These gray zone tactics include

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Read more in the latest Brief. buff.ly/cVlp9Aw

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

2) 9 oil refineries- the number of Russian oil refineries that have halted production in September due to drone strikes. Overall, the government expects oil and gas condensate output to fall by 3.4 percent this year.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 349 - of 450, the number of United Russia deputies in the new convocation of the State Duma, up from 324 in 2021, a record and a constitutional supermajority. More below👇️

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

She emphasizes that Japan needs to solidify its own thinking on these, as building the capability will involve many partners who may have their own views on deployment, escalation control, and other crucial elements of counterstrike strategy.

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- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

If you're local to FPRI, the Global Philadelphia Association is hosting an upcoming event at our office: Philadelphia's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Mural. The event includes a panel of artists and sustainability experts and will take place on Thursday, October 8, at 5:00 PM.

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Philadelphia’s SDG Mural - Extreme Weather and the SDG’s

This panel will include a mix of artist and sustainability leaders discussing the impact of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The new, enduring infrastructure built for facilities at Olenya Guba around the end of the Cold War underscores the importance placed on the seabed warfare assets housed there and indicates that by the early 1990s, GUGI had moved significant operations there.

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House of GUGI: A Historical Imagery Analysis of Olenya Guba - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The special mission submarines and Yantar belong to the Main Directorate for Deep Sea-Research (Glavnoye Upravlenie Glubokovodnikh Issledovanii), more

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

What makes Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman significant enough for the European Union to go to great lengths to lift their sanctions? The EU passed a three-year extension of 3,000 individual sanctions to lift the two mentioned above. Read the #BearMarketBrief to find out why.

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Let’s Get Fiscal

New taxes target passive income, e-commerce, and select producers in Russia’s 2027 budget

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Shihoko Goto notes a fundamental difference between how China and America use AI. For China, AI serves as a tool to protect the Chinese Communist Party instead of the populace, whereas in the United States, the goal of AI is to protect social cohesion—a perspective articulated by US developers.

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FPRI Experts React | The Trump-Xi Summit - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The much-anticipated summit meeting in Washington between American President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping masked any tensions that the two

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

🗓️ Virtual Event | Tuesday, October 20 | 12:00 PM EDT | 18:00 CET Co-hosted with New Eastern Europe, this virtual panel will explore the past legacies, present security and political realities, and strategic future of Central Europe and the Visegrád Four at a pivotal moment in European geopolitics.

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Central Europe on the World Stage - FPRI Events

As global security dynamics shift, understanding the political trajectories and foreign policy directions of Central Europe is a vital piece of the

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Ukraine’s greatest economic challenge is the blockade of the port of Odessa. Russian attacks have cut maritime traffic by 90 percent, preventing the export of major foreign currency earners and risking the loss of 10 percent of Ukraine’s GDP. buff.ly/LFRXta2

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The War of Endurance: Russia, Ukraine, and the Struggle Behind the Front Lines - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The Russo-Ukrainian War, if dated to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, is the longest running conflict in Europe since the French Revolutionary and

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In his piece, Sam walks through the base and program's life cycle, noting that its active operations after the Cold War demonstrate its significance to Russia. He also notes new seabed warfare vessels arriving at the base, suggesting it's a hub to watch closely.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Sam Lair analyzes satellite imagery of Olenya Guba, a coastal bay area where a Russian submarine base operates. The base houses Russia's deep-sea research program GUGI (Glavnoye Upravlenie Glubokovodnikh Issledovanii).

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House of GUGI: A Historical Imagery Analysis of Olenya Guba - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The special mission submarines and Yantar belong to the Main Directorate for Deep Sea-Research (Glavnoye Upravlenie Glubokovodnikh Issledovanii), more

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Dominic Tierney observes that although Canada calls for middle-power cooperation and expresses a clear desire to reduce its dependence on the US, the UK values its partnership with Washington and collaborates with it even when their positions diverge. buff.ly/CSvGaez

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This deal reflects the long and likely difficult negotiations that ultimately brought all three parties together. Whether the Greenlandic and Danish parliaments ultimately accept the deal remains to be seen, but at least we know what is at stake.

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What Stands Out in the US-Greenland-Denmark Agreement - Foreign Policy Research Institute

This whole Greenland saga has elicited all sorts of commentary. Let’s step back. The United States has had a presence on Greenland and permissive basing rules

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Jessica Liao explains that China's display of a diplomatic thaw with the United States serves its domestic interests. For Chinese leadership, bilateral stabilization is an instrument of statecraft designed to secure the strategic capabilities needed to advance long-term objectives.

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FPRI Experts React | The Trump-Xi Summit - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The much-anticipated summit meeting in Washington between American President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping masked any tensions that the two

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

While the focus remains on war spending, the administration announced specific budget allocations for families and infrastructure projects to placate public concerns. More details in the #BearMarketBrief.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Russia is squeezing regional budgets as it projects a 2.2 percent deficit for 2027. To address its precarious financial situation, the federal government plans to defer debt repayments to regions and raise further taxes. ⬇️

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Let’s Get Fiscal

New taxes target passive income, e-commerce, and select producers in Russia’s 2027 budget

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

3. The US has committed to signing contracts with Greenlandic entities, and if it strays, it could face diplomatic crises and litigation, as has occurred in the past.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

2. If the US increases its already-lenient military activity in Greenland, it may face backlash from more uncompromising Greenlanders this time around.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Rebecca Pincus notes three particularities in the US-Greenland-Denmark Agreement: 1. Those who express concerns over the agreement having no end date should not be alarmed—this has happened before with the 1951 US-Denmark defense agreement. More below ⬇️

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What Stands Out in the US-Greenland-Denmark Agreement - Foreign Policy Research Institute

This whole Greenland saga has elicited all sorts of commentary. Let’s step back. The United States has had a presence on Greenland and permissive basing rules

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Ahead of Latvia's 15th round of parliamentary elections this Saturday, October 3, catch up on our virtual event that breaks down the election process, the parties involved, the candidates running, and the recorded impact of the diaspora vote.

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Latvia Goes to the Polls: Watching the Political Winds Blow

On October 3, Latvia holds parliamentary elections for the 15th time. The election follows the resignation of Prime Minister Evika Siliņa in May amid security concerns and features 14 parties seeking…

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Conversely, keeping more missiles, bombers, and other weapons in a patrol state would introduce different challenges, including a higher potential for accidents and wearing out the readiness of the force (35:45). #ShiftingGround

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The United States does not keep all of its weapons in a state of operational readiness, and in a crisis normally generates more. That may not be a quick enough response in today's landscape with countless emerging technologies. ⬇️

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Episode 9 | Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century

Join us as we discuss the future of nuclear strategy and the impact of technology in the second nuclear century.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

A principle in the #Burnham doctrine is a desire to balance interests and values. Burnham promised to invest in the UK armed forces and in sovereign capabilities in shipbuilding and AI. He reiterated that the UK would be guided by values, including support for international law and the UN.

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How UK Foreign Policy Is Changing Under Andy Burnham - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Last week, the Andy Burnham government in the United Kingdom announced sanctions on Israeli settlements in the West Bank, in coordination with Canada and 10

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

⏰️ Last Chance to Register | Japan's Counterstrike Gamble | Tomorrow, 9:00 AM EDT Join FPRI's Asia Program for a virtual event discussing the three pillars needed for Japan to build a counterstrike capability: technical capability, strategic frameworks, and command and control.

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Japan's Counterstrike Gamble: Building Deterrence Under Pressure - FPRI Events

Japan's defense landscape is entering a period of acute strategic pressure. Intensifying military activity from neighboring powers is heightening volatility

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

In this week's #BearMarketBrief, @minczifra.bsky.social and Lee Block highlight: - increasing federal deficit - a successful push for a relief of sanctions against two oligarchs - the arrest of Alexander Kynev, a political scientist critical of the recent Duma elections

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Let’s Get Fiscal

New taxes target passive income, e-commerce, and select producers in Russia’s 2027 budget

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

🆕 FPRI Experts React | The Trump-Xi Summit. Our experts highlight different dimensions of the summit, all pointing to the same conclusion: both the United States and China were eager to convey strength, prioritizing the status of their partnership over addressing pertinent tensions between them.

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FPRI Experts React | The Trump-Xi Summit - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The much-anticipated summit meeting in Washington between American President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping masked any tensions that the two

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Over time, Inta Mieriņa has accumulated extensive data from her study of the Latvian diaspora, recording language data, diaspora investments, and views on select domestic issues. With a dynamic political landscape at home, the base can serve as a consultation mechanism. #BalticWays

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Diaspora and Migration in the Latvian Context

How European societies received Ukrainian refugees

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Check out Aaron Stein's full report on the continuity between Soviet thought and present-day Russian approaches to war in space. buff.ly/vWt405r

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

In the Brussels Morning Newspaper, Maximilian Hess highlights Mongolia as representative of the fallout from the Iran energy crisis. The country relies on Russia to export petrol and fuel, which is no longer a viable solution. Read more for full details ⬇️

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Mongolia’s Fuel Crisis and Energy Dependence Explained

Mongolia’s fuel crisis exposes its dependence on Russian energy, weak reserves and supply risks facing its mining-driven economy.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

In his piece for the #OrbisJournal, Paul Bracken highlights the many applications of militarized AI, including integrating weapons used to destroy a target into the tracking process, powering cyberattacks, and encoding and decoding cryptographic messages.

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An AI-Driven Second Nuclear Age

Explore the impact of AI on global security and warfare in this new age of technological threats and challenges.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

🗓️ Japan's Counterstrike Gamble| Wednesday, September 30 | 9:00 AM EDT Register for our virtual panel discussion addressing the question: Can Japan build a credible counterstrike capability fast enough and coherently enough to function as a genuine regional deterrent?

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Japan's Counterstrike Gamble: Building Deterrence Under Pressure - FPRI Events

Japan's defense landscape is entering a period of acute strategic pressure. Intensifying military activity from neighboring powers is heightening volatility

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Ukraine's sustained attacks on Russian oil facilities decreased oil refining capacity by 40 percent. The fuel shortages not only contribute to declining GDP, but bring the war home to the daily lives of Russian citizens. Click to read more. buff.ly/lDlqCW0

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The War of Endurance: Russia, Ukraine, and the Struggle Behind the Front Lines - Foreign Policy Research Institute

The Russo-Ukrainian War, if dated to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, is the longest running conflict in Europe since the French Revolutionary and

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Russia's railway system, RZhD, operates at a loss. Mounting debts coupled with inflation and deteriorating infrastructure result in a railway that will hinder economic recovery.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

High interest rates, increased consumption taxes, decreasing liquidity, and bad loans exacerbated banking distress. The economic aftershocks from drone strikes on Wildberries and Ozon warehouses will deepen financial insecurity.

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