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Fernando Martel García

@fmgbsky.bsky.social
59 followers 243 following 59 posts

𝙲𝚊𝚞𝚜𝚊𝚕 𝙸𝚗𝚏𝚎𝚛𝚎𝚗𝚌𝚎 | 𝚁𝚎𝚜𝚎𝚊𝚛𝚌𝚑 𝙿𝚛𝚊𝚌𝚝𝚒𝚌𝚎 | 𝙴𝚗𝚝𝚛𝚎𝚙𝚛𝚎𝚗𝚎𝚞𝚛𝚜𝚑𝚒𝚙 𝕎𝕒𝕤𝕙𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕥𝕠𝕟, 𝔻.ℂ. | www.fernandomartel.com

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Reposted by Fernando Martel García
Joshua Gans @joshgans.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
My thoughts on OpenAI's Big Maths Day. joshuagans.substack.com/p/openai-dro...
joshuagans.substack.com
OpenAI drops a bomb on maths
October 6th 2026 was a big day
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Metaculus employment forecast vs government forecast. One highlight: "unemployment for 4-year college graduates in the 22-27 age range expected to grow from the current 6% to 12.8% in 2035".
unemployment forecast
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Great piece highlighting the political roots of macro instability. What is the latest on the dynamics of how economic policy and political equilibria interact? The Chilean Mirror: What Argentina Sees and Cannot Yet Reach
marcusnunes.substack.com
The Chilean Mirror: What Argentina Sees and Cannot Yet Reach
Both countries export commodities, both have experienced boom and bust, and both have attempted radical economic reform. The difference between them is not primarily technical. It is institutional.
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
For lovers of the arcane: Knotting Matters Magazine - IGKT
igkt.net
Knotting Matters Magazine - IGKT
International Guild of Knot Tyers
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Great article by @timoreilly on scenarios for AI adoption and impact on jobs. www.oreilly.com/radar/scenar...
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
What do academic researchers and traffic cops have in common? They all work at intersections. 🤷
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Will AI agents replace software? My experience building an options-trading record-keeping workflow suggests otherwise. AI is useful for predictive tasks. But when a workflow must be exact, stateful, and auditable, software still needs to stay in charge.
fernandomartel.com
Can you trust stochastic agents in deterministic applications? | Fernando Martel García
Today I want to share my experience automating a record-keeping workflow using AI. What makes this application interesting is that financial record-keeping ought to be exact and stateful, yet the LLM…
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Great podcast on the potential and limitations of LLMs from an expert in the field: "Vibe Coding is a Slot Machine" - Jeremy Howard
podcasters.spotify.com
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
"Last week, we estimated a 66% chance that the US would strike Iran before April, well above the Polymarket aggregate of 20.5%" - open.substack.com/pub/sentinel...
open.substack.com
🟡 US and Israel strike Iran, Iran retaliates against US allies, Anthropic designated a supply chain risk || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #9/2026
Executive summary
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Simple beats complex. Maybe not a universal principle but a good point of departure....
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I wrote a new post on automated policy evaluation: using AI to scale policy impact analysis with observational data. This could speed up knowledge production, but whether it improves welfare depends on the institutions that adopt policy.
fernandomartel.com
Automated Policy Evaluation | Fernando Martel García
Today I came across the Project APE, for automated policy evaluation (APE). The project uses Claude Code plus public observational datasets to generate end-to-end economics-style policy impact…
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Market commentary isn't usually my thing but Microsoft's 15% stock price decline after beating earnings last month raises deeper questions about capital allocation within firms.
fernandomartel.com
Microsoft's Ai Capital Allocation | Fernando Martel García
Microsoft’s earnings report on January 28th beat market expectations yet the stock fell more than 15% soon after. Wall Street was spooked by two revelations in the earnings. First, 45% of Azure’s…
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
LLMs created a weird shift for me. I’m more productive than ever, but that makes free time feel less relaxing, not more. The more I can do, the harder it is to step away.
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Built FermiApp and open source tool for back-of-the-envelope strategic analysis using Fermi estimation. In my blog post I explain how working with AI as engineering partner (not autonomous agent) helped me move 10x faster while staying in control: www.futureofscience.ai/post/2025/11...
futureofscience.ai
Building FermiApp: AI as Engineering Partner | The Future of Science
Better business outcomes through causal AI insights
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
I find this very counterintuitive. IMHO longer letters send a worse signal than shorter letters. Shorter is a lot harder than longer, while still a packing a punch. Why are folks using AI to write longer letters?
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Good to see AI startups tackling judgemental forecasting, a seriously underused technique in business and government alike:
mantic.com
Mantic launch blog: A new kind of foresight
Mantic launch post
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
In the stochastic world of AI models "it takes a scientist to build AI products." Source:
giansegato.com
Building AI Products In The Probabilistic Era
AI turns products from deterministic functions into probabilistic systems. That requires expanding old playbooks (SLOs, funnels, siloed finance), and reasoning in terms of trajectories, Minimum…
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
If Schopenhauer is right that life boils down to a flight from either boredom or pain, then the real breakthrough in AI will come the day machines get bored or suffer pain. Nothing will drive their agency like boredom and pain....
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
AI providers may want to change their demos: Nobody is using LLMs to plan trips and book flights.
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
You've heard of enshitification but have you heard of Carcinisation?
rakhim.exotext.com
But what if I really want a faster horse? | exotext
But what if I really want a faster horse? | exotext
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Will AI replace scientists or create more demand for them? Will it accelerate discovery or bury us in AI-generated noise? I don’t know. But we need to find out—fast. I started an initiative to explore AI’s impact on science. Curious? Want to help?
futureofscience.ai
Home | The Future of Science
Exploring AI’s impact on science—one experiment at a time
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
For lovers of the arcane: BASIC 10Liner Contest, a competition for the best short BASIC program
bunsen.itch.io
BASIC 10Liner Contest 2025 by BASIC 10Liner
[BASIC 10Liner 2025] [Invitation]
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Why AI Usage May Degrade Human Cognition And Blunt Critical Thinking Skills
hackaday.com
Why AI Usage May Degrade Human Cognition And Blunt Critical Thinking Skills
Any statement regarding the potential benefits and/or hazards of AI tends to be automatically very divisive and controversial as the world tries to figure out what the technology means to them, and…
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
To what extent will AI be able to compress this timeline? Point solutions, like code auto completion, and app solutions, like AlphaFold, may only shrink it in the low teen percent. True acceleration will require systemic solutions
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Reposted by Fernando Martel García
Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Many follow scientists for their science, not politics. I wish there was a community norm to label political posts #political. That way users can filter out politics, and scientists can freely express views without fear of losing followers. It's a win win.
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
Want to experience the future of scientific work? Take a screenshot of the tiny data set below and get your favorite LLM to analyze it. You can do it on your phone. I wrote about my experience here www.fernandomartel.com/post/racing-...
Horse race tiny data
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Fernando Martel García @fmgbsky.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Just joined from the other place. Here for the science. Over there for the AI. In neither place for the politics.
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