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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The Government should be saving more of these risky receipts. This would make its tax base more secure. It would ensure it covers future ageing pressures and weathers the next recession without the need for painful cutbacks or sharp tax increases.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Stripping out the excess corporation tax, the parts that look riskiest, the Government plans to run larger deficits, rising from €12 billion in 2026 to €20 billion in 2030.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The Government continues to use high-risk receipts to fund permanent tax and spending measures. It plans to spend about six-in-seven euros of all corporation tax revenues it takes in. Most of it is for current spending.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Spending increases net of tax measures have been running at a blistering pace. A sustainable speed limit of 5% was set in 2021. But governments have since budgeted for 6%, before actually delivering about 10%, double the speed limit. Today’s figures suggest almost 9% in 2026.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The Fiscal Council has just published its Flash Release on Budget 2027. Here are the key takeaways: Budget 2027 puts the public finances on a worse trajectory by repeatedly breaking established spending limits and increasingly relying on high-risk corporation tax.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

4/4 The key takeaway is that overspends continue and strong revenues are offsetting them for now. But the Government is relying heavily on risky corporation tax. The White Paper 2026 surplus is €2.3 billion smaller than forecast in March, and the Budget will reduce it further.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

3/4 The Department of Health is heading for its second-largest overspend outside of the pandemic. Overruns have risen from €390 million in July to €650 million in August, and €730 million in September.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

2/4 Taxes continue to grow strongly. Corporation tax is €4.4 billion ahead of last year’s end-September outturn. The Department of Finance sees this as a timing effect that may unwind, so it has barely revised its 2026 tax forecasts since April. Spending is rising quickly too.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

1/4 Two releases came out today. The “White Paper” gives an updated glimpse of the fiscal situation before next Tuesday’s Budget package, but is thin on spending detail. We also have updated tax and spending numbers to September.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The Council is delighted to host the annual Irish Society for Women in Economics (@isweconomics.bsky.social) Post-Budget Analysis Event. Join us on Wednesday, 7 October, at 5:30 p.m. at the @esri.ie. Attendance is free, but registration is required, and places are limited: ti.to/irish-fiscal...

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

4/4 Overall, the pattern of overspends continues. And while stronger than expected revenues are offsetting these for now, the Government continues to rely heavily on risky corporation taxes.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

3/4 Corporation tax receipts rose further in August — a key month for multinational payments. Revenues look set to exceed forecasts for 2026.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

2/4 The Health overspend rose from €0.4 to €0.7 billion in August. This puts it on track to be the second largest Health overspend in over a decade.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

1/4 August’s update shows taxes growing strongly. But spending is also rising faster than planned, and Department of Health overruns are mounting.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

11/11 The Government should continue planned contributions to its savings funds. The Future Ireland Fund can help offset the predictable costs associated with an ageing population. By running larger surpluses, the Government would not need to borrow for these contributions.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

10/11 Ireland needs its own domestic budgetary rule. This should be carefully designed and set out in legislation. Such a rule could help protect public investment, which was cut sharply after the financial crisis.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

9/11 The Government’s medium-term plan is inappropriate because it allows net spending to grow faster than the economy's sustainable growth rate. Sticking to the plan would further increase Ireland’s reliance on risky corporation tax receipts.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

8/11 The Government is facing substantial spending pressures next year (€8.1 billion). A growing and ageing population will increase demand for public services. Inflation and other cost pressures will also mean additional spending, limiting the funds available for new measures.

Chart showing spending pressures that the Government is facing next year.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

7/11 Newly available public information shows how much Ireland's public finances rely on three very large companies. Together, Eli Lilly, Microsoft, and Apple likely paid almost half of Ireland’s corporation tax in 2025.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

6/11 The public finances are highly dependent on corporation tax receipts. Under the Government’s plans, for every €8 the it collects in corporation tax, it plans on spending €7 and saving €1.

Chart showing that thew vast majority of corporation tax planned to be spent rather than saved. Only €1 out of every €8 in corporation tax is planned to be saved.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

5/11 Spending overruns have been routine over the last decade, averaging more than €2 billion a year in today's terms. The last time spending was at, or below, budgeted levels was in 2013.

Chart showing how spending overruns have been commonplace over tha last decade.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

4/11 The actual budget package is likely to be much larger than what is announced on budget day. As a result of spending overruns, net spending has grown much faster than planned in recent years.

Chart showing that net spending has increased at a much faster pace than planned.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

3/11 The Government’s planned budget package for 2027 is larger than appropriate. Spending (net of tax changes) is set to grow faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy. This comes after fast net spending growth in recent years.

Chart showing growth rates of spending net of tax policy changes in Ireland.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

2/11 The Irish economy is performing strongly and does not need support from budgetary policy. Employment has reached a record high and is still growing. Since 2019, economic growth has been much faster in Ireland than in other high-income European countries.

Chart showing economic growth in high-income European countries.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

1/11 The Fiscal Council’s latest report warns that Budget 2027 is set to be larger than appropriate for a strong economy. Spending overruns could make the package even bigger than announced on budget day, increasing Ireland’s reliance on risky corporation tax receipts.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

The Fiscal Council’s latest Pre-Budget Statement warns that Budget 2027 is likely to be larger than is appropriate for an economy already performing strongly. Niall Conroy, our Acting Chief Economist, explains the key findings from the report.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

4/4 Current spending is growing at a fast pace up 7.8% so far this year. Sizeable overruns are likely. These are most evident in health. At the end of July, current health spending was overrunning by €0.4 billion.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

3/4 Corporation tax receipts continue to rise. July saw the first large tranche of top-up payments related to BEPS Pillar II reforms.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

2/4 Underlying tax revenue continues to grow strongly. Both income tax and VAT are growing faster than Budget 2026 forecasts. Policy changes introduced earlier this year have reduced other taxes collected.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

1/4 Today’s fiscal monitor shows that taxes continue to grow strongly, while spending continues to grow at a fast pace.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

12/12 Most corporation tax receipts are set to be spent rather than saved. Under the Government’s plan, only €1 out of every €6 collected will be set aside, with the remaining €5 used for ongoing spending commitments.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

11/12 The planned pace of net spending growth in Ireland is faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy and the fastest in the EU. If this plan is followed, it will continue to leave the public finances highly reliant on risky corporation tax receipts.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

10/12 The plans set out in the Summer Economic Statement would be consistent with the Government’s Medium-Term Plan. However, this plan is not an appropriate guide for budgetary policy in Ireland.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

9/12 Gross voted spending is forecast to rise by €7 billion next year. As a result, the Summer Economic Statement suggests that spending (net of tax measures) will grow by over 6% in 2027. This follows on from strong growth in previous years.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

8/12 This year’s current spending overrun is likely to carry into next year. If this is not reflected in spending estimates for 2026 before budget day, further spending overruns next year are almost inevitable. This all points to poor planning and budgeting.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

7/12 Further overruns are now likely. The Council estimates current spending will likely be a further €0.85 billion above the Government’s estimate for 2026, mainly driven by healthcare.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

6/12 In recent years, budgetary plans have often not been adhered to. Spending overruns have become common. Since Budget 2026, the Government has already increased its spending forecasts by €665 million for this year, mostly due to expected overruns in education.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

5/12 Increases in prices also increase the cost of providing today’s level of public services. Uprating social protection payments and a new public sector pay deal (if agreed), would also add to costs.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

4/12 While €7 billion of spending increases are planned, much of this will be absorbed by the rising cost of providing public services. A growing and ageing population means more demand for services like healthcare and pensions. No official estimates of these costs were given.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

3/12 The vast majority of next year’s spending increase is for current spending. The Government plans to increase current spending by €5.9 billion and capital spending by €1.2 billion. Out of every €6 in spending increases, €5 is for current spending, while €1 is for capital.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

2/12 The Summer Economic Statement suggests a package of tax cuts in Budget 2027 of around €1.5 billion. This is slightly larger than the cost of adjusting the tax system so that people do not pay more tax as their incomes increase.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

1/12 The Government released its Summer Economic Statement today, outlining its plans for Budget 2027. On a headline level, the Government plans a package of €8.5 billion, €7 billion of spending increases and €1.5 billion in tax reductions.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Ireland faces a clear choice on climate policy, invest now or pay more later. Dr Killian Carroll explains some of our recent research. Read the full paper on our website: www.fiscalcouncil.ie/the-hidden-c...

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

5/5 Capital spending is growing, but at a slower than planned pace. Capital spending has increased by 8.2% so far this year. This is still almost 10% below profile. However, capital spending can often fluctuate significantly from month to month.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

4/5 Current spending is growing at a fast pace up 6.8% so far this year. Sizeable overruns are becoming apparent in health. At the end of June, current health spending was overrunning by €0.4 billion.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

3/5 Corporation tax receipts continue to rise. Almost €7.5 billion in receipts were collected in the month of June, up €0.1 billion on the same month last year.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

2/5 Underlying tax revenue is rising at a faster pace than Budget 2026 forecast. Both income tax and VAT are growing at a faster rate than forecast, policy changes have lowered the tax take from other taxes.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

1/5 Today’s fiscal monitor shows underlying tax revenue continuing to perform robustly, while expenditure is rising at a fast pace.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

6/6 Action now is fiscally prudent. The least costly outcome is coordinated global action. But even where Ireland acts alone, the fiscal case remains strong because the benefits of domestic transition would otherwise be left unrealised and energy security would remain a risk.

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Irish Fiscal Advisory Council @fiscalcouncil.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

5/6 Even if global climate action falls short, domestic action still acts as an insurance policy. It can help Ireland avoid open-ended compliance costs, reduce exposure to fossil fuel price shocks, lower pollution-related health costs and improve household energy efficiency.

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