iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

the locus of most deaths is from a nursing home next to where that ammo warehouse exploded. that was extremely irresponsible especially after a similar incident in July.

100

4/ So for ru constraint enveloppe is less limited, thus, after purely military targets the next logical step is hitting logistics. So IMHO, russia would be doing this regardless of Ukrainian actions, though a need to mirror UA strikes does exist.

000

3/ From the aggressor's POV this means they can be more lenient and wider about target selection as previously, limited munitions + UA AD meant they were forced to attack a few targets in saturation attacks to ensure hits. The calculus tipped against Ukraine for the time being

100

2/ ru long-range capabilites have been steadily expanding with low cost munitions like jet drones, while at the same time UA AD is strained, though short and medium range defense is still properly supplied ballistic defense is very lacking. +Jet Geran interception% still needs to increase, too.

100

1/ Thinking about the current discourse on attacks on warehouses etc. as Clement Molin also raised it in a post today whetever Ukraine's strategy was smart but im less skeptical, and more importantly I think a deeper strategic insight is missing from the picture here when we analye both campaigns.

100

they have to change the air alert system because its untenable to sound it whenever terrorists send one drone every hour.

000

That's not to say UA didn't commit mistakes, Zelenskyy's refusal to mobilise before invasion, the treasonous collapse of defense in the South, the pre-announced counteroffensive, Syrsky's decisions, but much of this could have been mitigated by giving UA the right tools from the beginning.

031

And of course, much of Ukraine wouldn't be ruined, soil polluted with UXO and tens of thousands would be still alive today. We wouldn't need tens of billions to reconstruct the country , and millions of refugees would be still living in their home (who are a huge boon to Western economies btw).

131

There would be no drone revolution, no russia building thousands of gerans and dozens of iskanders a month, no contract soldier pipeline to provide meat for the grinder, consequently Iran, North Korea, China would also not have been given the chance to observe and learn.

131

Along with giving Ukraine operational freedom to use the gifted weapons, such as using ATACMS to wipe out russian fighter-bomber fleet, russia would have simply been never given the time and opportunity to adapt and developer counters.

131

Prompt conventional aid to Ukraine in early 2022 could have decisively wiped out russia's pre-war army, leaving poutine completely bare and cause a shock ending the war. Numbers-wise, if NATO had just gave everything they did OTL but in first few months, the war could have ended long ago.

151

KiRS @kath47.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

this is an insane hard task that would require complex planning and preparations and an overwhelming force. what the fuck are they thinking? but of course, more russkies dying futile is good.

060

Reposted by Fuchs 🇪🇺

i sleep

14318

Fuchs 🇪🇺 @ffffuchs.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Ratcliffe is by far the most pro-Ukraine person in the current US admin, and by extension the CIA is the biggest organisation still dominated by anti-russian people.

2232

Fuchs 🇪🇺 @ffffuchs.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

It's also important to remember ru is very concerned about image projected globally and for domestic audience. The succesful Ukrainian drone and missile campaign necessited an intense response, regardless of how effective the strikes are.

000

Fuchs 🇪🇺 @ffffuchs.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Yes, they are tapping into reserves. But that means less missiles for later. Either putin plans a lull for autumn then intensify in winter, or they really think they can rocket Ukraine into submission now (they won't).

010

Focused just to protect Kyiv and to shoot down Iskanders, 300 PAC3 would actually suffice for 5 months from October till March. Plus its deterrence math, you force the enemy to expend more by the very existence of counter.

050

126 is not a sustainable numbe and probably top of operational tempo given TEL avability. ru builds around 50-60 Iskanders, a couple Kinzhals and 40 RM-48Us (converted S400 interceptors). Kinzhals are deterred by LIMA, RM-48U has low accuracy and mostly used to bombard border areas like Kharkiv.

110

I think PAC2s were also counted as 3s; KSA is a Patriot operator since 1990 and received 1100 PAC2 by 1992. I can easily see them owning well over 2000 PAC2, which is less optimal against BMs necessiting firing more.

160

That leaves a rather egregious gap of 2200, but even if the US sent over all the 2026 order's interceptors, you still need to find 1500. Which makes me think they also included PAC2s and other shorter range SAMs, but I haven't worked out the numbers if it could check out.

020

U.S. greenlights sale of 600 Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia | Fortune

Problem is no source suggests KSA ever bought that many. They ordered 730 this January which is unlikely to have arrived; their last and only big deal was for 600 in 2015: fortune.com/2015/08/01/u...

fortune.com

A historic nuclear agreement with Iran is fueling a billion-dollar arms race in the Middle East.

210

Yeah I digged for numbers, but KSA simply did not have 2800 PAC3s. Someone is fudging numbers by summing all Gulf state + Israel + US interceptor use, or by also including PAC-2s, or something else. A realistic number for pre-war KSA PAC3 stock would be ~600.

040