Abstract. Investors’ return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations is not well understood. This article exp

This paper examines reflexivity in capital markets with particular focus on causality. Conventional mathematical models assume epistemic norms and well-defined unidirectional causal chains. We revi...

Horizonte (DE) - Ausgabe 150

Abstract. When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether

One ant may be all it takes to set an entire colony in motion, according to a new model of synchronized ant behavior.

The young mathematician won a prestigious Fields Medal for her work on the so-called Kakeya conjecture.

Switzerland's leading health insurance company with almost two million policyholders.

AIP Opens Access to Three Interviews with J. Robert Oppenheimer

We study how banks’ adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) affects risk-taking and stability using data on major listed Chinese banks (2013–2024). We construc

We present results from the Big Mysteries Survey, a large-scale survey conducted through the American Physical Society's Physics Magazine on foundational and controversial topics in contemporary physi...

Background Previous studies suggest that higher optimism is associated with better cognitive function and slower cognitive decline in aging. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, a nation...

Combining observations and climate models suggests a 60% stronger weakening of the Atlantic circulation than using models alone.

Path-wise financial market modeling, using signature methods, is gaining traction. This open access book introduces the topic for quants and researchers.

The Swiss Quantum Strategy, which was published on Wednesday, demonstrates how Switzerland defends its leading role in quantum technology through the development and marketing of technologies on an in...

Willkommen bei der führenden Krankenversicherung der Schweiz mit knapp zwei Millionen Versicherten.

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and continued to expect one rate cut this year as they acknowledged increased uncertainty due to war in the Middle East.

Abstract. We introduce a new type of shrinkage estimator that is not based on asymptotic optimality, but instead learns a state-dependent shrinkage policy

Earth is now warming at a rate of around 0.35 ºC per decade, fresh analysis finds.

We study the out-of-sample and post-publication return predictability of 97 variables shown to predict cross-sectional stock returns. Portfolio returns are 26% lower out-of-sample and 58% lower post-...

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

His record-breaking speech was light on policy and heavy on theatre

A string of surprising advances suggests usable quantum computers could be here in a decade.

Record-breaking experiment shows that a cluster of thousands of atoms can act like a wave as well as a particle.

Less than 15 years apart, the world at large and investors have been confronted by the Global Financial Crisis and a global pandemic. The shocks and knock-on effects of both have challenged long-held ...

Group-level imitation may stabilize cooperation, Bousseyroux, Pierre, Zérah, Gilles, Benzaquen, Michael

Abstract. Dear Sir, I Now send you an essay which I have found among the papers of our deceased friend Mr. Bayes, and which, in my opinion, has great merit

This paper makes the first comprehensive attempt to study within-country heterogeneity of housing returns. We introduce a new city-level data set covering 15 OECD countries over 150 years and show th....

Will it be boom, bust or backlash? In 2026 expect the economic, financial and social consequences of AI to grab attention

Lawrence Krauss has just put up a long interview with Lenny Susskind. I was listening to it while doing something else, found myself shocked when the discussion got to the current state of string t…

Since its inception in 1945, the Financial Analysts Journal (FAJ) has advanced some of the investment profession’s most influential ideas by providing an outlet for innovative thinkers. We trace th...

Bitcoin is often viewed as a potential competitor to gold as a safe-haven asset. But is it? While gold and bitcoin share similarities - decentralized supply, lo

Quantum engines can attain efficiencies higher than Carnot’s by using entropic resources.

Abstract. Agent-based models (ABMs) are dynamic computer simulations that abandon utility maximization and instead assume that agents are boundedly rationa

The discretionary portfolio manager’s role is evolving as artificial intelligence and machine learning increasingly supplement or replace traditional investment insight. This article explores how a...

Researchers studying the health of glaciers say that one in Tajikistan likely reached its tipping point in 2018.

The discretionary portfolio manager’s role is evolving as artificial intelligence and machine learning increasingly supplement or replace traditional investment insight. This article explores how a...

Mehr als ihr halbes Leben verbrachte unsere Korrespondentin in dem Land, das seinen Nachbarn überfallen hat und die eigenen Leute nicht frei reden lässt.

Hundreds of physicists (and a few journalists) journeyed to Helgoland, the birthplace of quantum mechanics, and grappled with what they have and haven’t learned about reality.

First major attempt to chart researchers’ views finds interpretations in conflict.

What explains the cross-sectional variation in corporate bond returns? This article uses novel hand-collected data from the Brussels Stock Exchange from January 1868 through July 1914 to examine th...

Republicans battle to pass a profligate but insubstantial law

Hong Kong’s pension fund managers have formed a preliminary plan to sell down their Treasury holdings within as soon as three months if the US loses its last recognized top credit rating, according to...

Warren Buffett picked the final minute of his 60th shareholder meeting to drop a long-awaited announcement that was still completely surprising for his fans, most of his board and even his successor.