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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 09/10/2026

New #FEDSNote finds at least 15% of families are unable to lean on relatives and friends for financial or caregiving support: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Figure 2. Participation in Informal Financial/Caregiving (F/CG) Support Networks by Wealth Decile. Chart shows stark wealth divide in family/caregiving support.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 09/10/2026

New #FEDSNote says I don't know about you, but my MPC is 0.22: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Figure 3. Mean allocation by income and wealth group. Chart shows mean allocation across income/wealth percentiles.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 02/10/2026

Recessions are largely goods phenomena, with services making much smaller contributions to the business cycle. And overall goods GDP has been stable at around 1/4th of total GDP over the past couple decades. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Figure 2. Goods production drives the business cycle

Figure 6. Goods GDP has grown faster than goods-industry value added

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 02/10/2026

A declining role of goods production in the U.S. economy has long been a topic of intense policy and research focus. But goods production remains more important than narrow measures might suggest. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Figure 1. Measures showing declining importance of goods production

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 01/10/2026

Subsectors with greater tariff exposure exhibit faster price growth than less-exposed subsectors—dynamics masked in aggregate data but essential for understanding the differential impacts of policy shocks. (5/5) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

Beyond Aggregates: Measuring Manufacturing Subsector Heterogeneity with the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 01/10/2026

Critically, the industry-level granularity reveals substantial heterogeneity across manufacturing subsectors that sector aggregates obscure. A case study of the 2025 tariff increases demonstrates this value. (4/5) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

Beyond Aggregates: Measuring Manufacturing Subsector Heterogeneity with the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 01/10/2026

The authors compare BTOS diffusion indices against established manufacturing indicators and find strong co-movement at the aggregate level, particularly for prices and supplier delivery times. (3/5) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

Beyond Aggregates: Measuring Manufacturing Subsector Heterogeneity with the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 01/10/2026

In this #FEDSNote, the authors assess the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), an experimental, biweekly product of the U.S. Census Bureau, as a timely source that bridges this gap by providing industry detail. (2/5) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

Beyond Aggregates: Measuring Manufacturing Subsector Heterogeneity with the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 01/10/2026

Real-time monitoring of U.S. manufacturing activity typically relies on high-frequency national aggregates that lack industry detail. (1/5) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

Beyond Aggregates: Measuring Manufacturing Subsector Heterogeneity with the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 30/09/2026

Manufacturers are increasingly seeking workers with AI-related skills. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky

Figure 4. Types of AI Skills Required in Manufacturing Postings

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 28/09/2026

The motor vehicle industry suffered severe production disruptions during 2021 and 2022 due to semiconductor shortages, but the automakers adopted some strategies to contain those losses. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky

Figure 1. The Trajectory of Light Vehicle Production Through the Chip Shortage

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 28/09/2026

Similar tariff shock, opposite composition shifts: Japan -> import mix tilted towards higher-priced models South Korea -> mix tilted towards lower-priced models. While unit values fell sharply, composition is only a small part of the story. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Figure 4. Variable- and Fixed-Composition Average Prices

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 21/09/2026

How much can forecast panels tell us about perceived monetary policy rules? Letting the data choose how observations are pooled yields much less evidence of time-varying policy responses relative to previous approaches. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #FEDSPaper

This line chart displays Activity Coefficient γ (gamma) from 1985 through 2025, comparing two estimation methods. The conventional estimate appears as a black solid line, while the optimal pooling estimate is shown as a red dashed line. The y-axis ranges from -0.25 to 1.75. Key finding: The conventional estimate reached its highest point around 2005, peaking at approximately 1.75. Both estimation methods exhibit significant volatility throughout the 40-year period, with values typically fluctuating between 0 and 1.0. The optimal pooling estimate generally appears smoother and tracks somewhat below the conventional estimate. By 2025, both estimates show lower values, ranging between approximately 0.1 and 0.5.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 04/09/2026

This #IFDPPaper shows that when firms serve foreign markets through overseas affiliates, currency depreciation can raise income earned abroad without generating a comparable domestic production boom. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp... #EconSky

Figure 7: Foreign-Market Organization and Exchange-Rate Transmission

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 04/09/2026

A new #FEDSNote digs deeper into the popular comparison of world gold reserves and foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasuries. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky

Figure 3. Modified World Gold Reserves and Foreign Holdings of Treasuries (Excludes U.S., Germany, France, Italy, IMF)

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 31/08/2026

It finds the slopes of state-level Phillips curve are driven by trend U-star rather than by the unemployment-rate gap. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... (2/2) #EconSky

federalreserve.gov

United States of U-Star

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 31/08/2026

This #FEDSPaper estimates state-level trend unemployment rates (U-star) based on the trend components of unemployment inflows and outflows across unemployment durations. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... (1/2)

federalreserve.gov

United States of U-Star

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 27/08/2026

Among middle-income households, the more worried ones cut non-essentials & shift toward essentials. Low-income budgets don't have the slack to do more than trade down & high-income households cut their spending but do so whether or not they are worried (3/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

federalreserve.gov

Paying More and Buying Less: 2025 Tariffs and U.S. Household Spending

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 27/08/2026

The burden falls hardest on low-income households. Every group cuts spending and trades down to cheaper varieties within tariff-hit categories. Linking the panel to a tariff sentiment survey shows who acts on tariff worry. (2/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

federalreserve.gov

Paying More and Buying Less: 2025 Tariffs and U.S. Household Spending

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 27/08/2026

We analyze 125,000 US households' transactions to measure how the 2025 tariffs affected spending. Tariffs passed through 15-20% to retail prices, raising affected-good prices 1-2%. But households cut spending by 4%, three to four times the price increase. (1/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

federalreserve.gov

Paying More and Buying Less: 2025 Tariffs and U.S. Household Spending

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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